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Nvidia’s $589B DeepSeek rout

finance.yahoo.com

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Re: Nvidia’s $589B DeepSeek rout

#551

Post by mrbungie »

jcgrillo wrote: post #522
elihu wrote: post #450

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Jevon's paradox would imply that there's good reason to think that demand for shovels will increase. AI doesn't seem to be one of those things where society as a whole will say, "we have enough of that; we don't need any more". (Many individual people are already saying that, but they aren't the people buying the GPUs for this in the first place. Steam engines weren't universally popular either when they were introdu…

> AI doesn't seem to be one of those things where society as a whole will say, "we have enough of that; we don't need any more". Really? Has anyone made a useful, commercially successful product with it yet?

Not even Microsoft Copilot 365 had a successful launch. The same happened with Apple Intelligence.

People talk like the end user demand part of the equation is really solved when invoking an Econ 101 magical interpretation of the Law of Supply and Demand or Jevons Padadox.

Re: Nvidia’s $589B DeepSeek rout

#552

Post by Jensson »

chatmasta wrote: post #550
kd913 wrote: post #394

The biggest discussion I have been on having this is the implications on Deepseek for say the RoI H100. Will a sudden spike in available GPUs and reduction in demand (from efficient GPU usage) dramatically shock the cost per hour to rent a GPU. This I think is the critical value for measuring the investment value for Blackwell now. The price for a H100 per hour has gone from the peak of $8.42 to about $1.80. A H100 c…

Why is there this implicit assumption that more efficient training/inference will reduce GPU demand? It seems more likely - based on historical precedent in the computing industry - that demand will expand to fill the available hardware. We can do more inference and more training on fewer GPUs. That doesn’t mean we need to stop buying GPUs. Unless people think we’re already doing the most training/inference we’ll eve…

Historically most compute went to run games in peoples homes, because companies didn't see a need to run that much analytics. I don't see why that wouldn't happen now as well, there is a limit to how much value you can get out of this, since they aren't AGI yet.

Re: Nvidia’s $589B DeepSeek rout

#554

Post by nicce »

plaidfuji wrote: post #296
polygamous_bat wrote: post #223

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> The part of this that doesn’t jibe with me is the fact that they also released this incredibly detailed technical report on their architecture and training strategy. The paper is well-written and has a lot of specifics. Exactly the opposite of what you would do if you had truly made an advancement of world-altering magnitude. I disagree completely on this sentiment. This was in fact the trend for a century or more…

I’m not arguing for/against the altruistic ideal of sharing technological advancements with society, I’m just saying that having a great model architecture is really not a defensible value proposition for a business. Maybe more accurate to say publishing everything in detail indicates that it’s likely not a defensible advancement, not that it isn’t significant.

Here is a great interview. They don’t seem to care that much about money. They are already profitable.

https://www.chinatalk.media/p/deepseek-ceo-interview-with-ch...

> Money has never been the problem for us; bans on shipments of advanced chips are the problem.

Re: Nvidia’s $589B DeepSeek rout

#555

Post by fabfoe »

elihu wrote: post #450
ozten wrote: post #431

NVIDIA sells shovels to the gold rush. One miner (Liang Wenfeng), who has previously purchased at least 10,000 A100 shovels... has a "side project" where they figured out how to dig really well with a shovel and shared their secrets. The gold rush, wether real or a bubble is still there! NVIDA will still sell every shovel they can manufacture, as soon as it is available in inventory. Fortune 100 companies will still…

Jevon's paradox would imply that there's good reason to think that demand for shovels will increase. AI doesn't seem to be one of those things where society as a whole will say, "we have enough of that; we don't need any more". (Many individual people are already saying that, but they aren't the people buying the GPUs for this in the first place. Steam engines weren't universally popular either when they were introdu…

Apparently it’s just Jevons, not possessive.

Re: Nvidia’s $589B DeepSeek rout

#556

Post by roenxi »

jcgrillo wrote: post #522
elihu wrote: post #450

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Jevon's paradox would imply that there's good reason to think that demand for shovels will increase. AI doesn't seem to be one of those things where society as a whole will say, "we have enough of that; we don't need any more". (Many individual people are already saying that, but they aren't the people buying the GPUs for this in the first place. Steam engines weren't universally popular either when they were introdu…

> AI doesn't seem to be one of those things where society as a whole will say, "we have enough of that; we don't need any more". Really? Has anyone made a useful, commercially successful product with it yet?

Yeah, lots of them. I never thought I'd be paying for a search subscription but after a few months of using ChatGPT I expect to be paying for the privilege from now on. Maybe not paying OpenAI, but someone. There isn't much of a moat there, so there are going to be many companies basically on-selling GPU time. And even if for some weird reason there is no commercially successful AI-specific product it is causing shockwaves in how work is done, most people I know who are effective have worked it into their workflow somehow.

Re: Nvidia’s $589B DeepSeek rout

#557

Post by theptip »

puppymaster wrote: post #549
elihu wrote: post #450

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Jevon's paradox would imply that there's good reason to think that demand for shovels will increase. AI doesn't seem to be one of those things where society as a whole will say, "we have enough of that; we don't need any more". (Many individual people are already saying that, but they aren't the people buying the GPUs for this in the first place. Steam engines weren't universally popular either when they were introdu…

I also dont get how this is bearish for NVDA. Before this, small to mid companies would give up on finetuning their own model because openai is just so much better and cheaper. Now deepseek SOTA model gives them much better quality baseline model to train on. Wouldn't more people want to RAG on top of deepseek? or some startups accountant would run the numbers and figures we can just inference the shit out of deepsee…

The bear case is something like “investors are going to call BS on multi-billion training DC investments”. That represents most of their short-run demand.

Not sure what is supposed to happen to the inference demand but I guess that could be modeled as more of a long-run thing, as inference is going to be very coin-operated (companies need it to be net profitable now) whereas training is more of a build now profit later game.

Re: Nvidia’s $589B DeepSeek rout

#558

Post by trhway »

jcgrillo wrote: post #522
elihu wrote: post #450

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Jevon's paradox would imply that there's good reason to think that demand for shovels will increase. AI doesn't seem to be one of those things where society as a whole will say, "we have enough of that; we don't need any more". (Many individual people are already saying that, but they aren't the people buying the GPUs for this in the first place. Steam engines weren't universally popular either when they were introdu…

> AI doesn't seem to be one of those things where society as a whole will say, "we have enough of that; we don't need any more". Really? Has anyone made a useful, commercially successful product with it yet?

>Really? Has anyone made a useful, commercially successful product with it yet?

Aren't millions or even tens of millions students using ChatGPT for example? To me that sounds like a commercial success (and looks comparable with the usage of Google Search - a money printing machine for more almost 30 years now - in the first years)

And enterprise-wise - heard recently a VP complaining about entering expenses. As we don't have secretaries anymore in the civilized world, that means "Agents AI" is going to have a blast.

(i'm long on NVDA and wondering is it enough blood on the streets to buy more :)

Re: Nvidia’s $589B DeepSeek rout

#559

Post by redundantly »

dgfitz wrote: post #516
culi wrote: post #445

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Why mention it if you're not gonna link it?

Because paywall.

It can still be helpful. Some people are already on the other side of that wall, or someone else usually comes along with an archived, non-paywall version.

Re: Nvidia’s $589B DeepSeek rout

#560

Post by yieldcrv »

sho_hn wrote: post #471
culi wrote: post #443

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Yeah but NVIDIA's amazing digging technique that could only be accomplished with NVIDIA shovels is now irrelevant. Meaning there are more people selling shovels for the gold rush

DeepSeek's stuff is actually more dependent on nVidia shovels. They implemented a bunch of assembly-level optimizations below the CUDA stack that allowed them to efficiently use the H800s they have, which are memory-bandwidth-gimped vs. the H100s they can't easily buy on the open market. That's cool, but doesn't run on any other GPUs. Cue all of China rushing to Jensen to buy all the H800s they can before the embargo…

I was thinking about that, but don’t those same optimizations work on H100s? and the concepts work on every other chip from Nvidia and every other manufacturer’s chip

I still think this is bullish: more people will be buying chips once cheaper and more accessible, and the things the will be training with be 1,000% to 10,000% larger

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