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Nvidia’s $589B DeepSeek rout

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Re: Nvidia’s $589B DeepSeek rout

#331
post #291

Massive overreaction in my opinion (not financial advice). People are forgetting how much compute is being used for inference. This is going to be further accelerated: - Reasoning models are going to generate orders of magnitude more tokens. - Synthetic an augmented data is more and more prevalent, and if you need to process pre-training scale dataset, you will need a lot of inference. - etc.

Inference can be done on much more diverse hardware.

Re: Nvidia’s $589B DeepSeek rout

#334
So the Chinese graciously gift a paper and model which describes methods that radically increase the efficiency of hardware which will allow US AI firms to create much better models due to having significantly more AI hardware and people are bearish on US AI now?

Re: Nvidia’s $589B DeepSeek rout

#336
ASML warned that it was just a question of time for the Chinese to get their own tech industry up and running. The Americans were in denial.

Ultimately someone in America will get desperate enough and start a war when they still have a chance to win. See the Earth-Mars conflict in the Expanse.

Re: Nvidia’s $589B DeepSeek rout

#338

So the Chinese graciously gift a paper and model which describes methods that radically increase the efficiency of hardware which will allow US AI firms to create much better models due to having significantly more AI hardware and people are bearish on US AI now?

Don't look for logic in the market, I suppose.

Re: Nvidia’s $589B DeepSeek rout

#339

So the Chinese graciously gift a paper and model which describes methods that radically increase the efficiency of hardware which will allow US AI firms to create much better models due to having significantly more AI hardware and people are bearish on US AI now?

I think the idea that SOTA models can run on limited hardware makes people think that Nvidia sales will take a hit.

But if you think about it for two more seconds you realize that if SOTA was trained on mid level hardware, top of the line hardware could still put you ahead, and DeepSeek is also open source so it won't take long to see what this architecture could do on high end cards.

Re: Nvidia’s $589B DeepSeek rout

#340
post #319

Earlier quoted context omitted.

o1 does not show the reasoning trace at this point. You may be confusing the final answer for the reasoning trace in the middle, it's shown pretty clearly on r1.

I wasn't really referring much to the UI as I was the fact that it does it to begin with. The thinking in deepseek trails off into its own nonsense before it answers, whereas I feel openai's is way more structured.

o1 does not output the full CoT tokens, they are not comparable.
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