The impact of competition and DeepSeek on Nvidia • Hacker News Board

Re: The impact of competition and DeepSeek on Nvidia

#251

Post by moffkalast » Mon, Jan 27, 2025, 5:52 PM UTC

stormfather wrote: post #163

tomrod wrote: post #158

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Conversely, how much larger can you scale if frontier models only currently need 3 consumer computers? Imagine having 300. Could you build even better models? Is DeepSeek the right team to deliver that, or can OpenAI, Meta, HF, etc. adapt? Going to be an interesting few months on the market. I think OpenAI lost a LOT in the board fiasco. I am bullish on HF. I anticipate Meta will lose folks to brain drain in response…

Google is silently catching up fast with Gemini. They're also pursuing next gen architectures like Titan. But most importantly, the frontier of AI capabilities is shifting towards using RL at inference (thinking) time to perform tasks. Who has more data than Google there? They have a gargantuan database of queries paired with subsequent web nav, actions, follow up queries etc. Nobody can recreate this, Bing failed to…

Never underestimate Google's ability to fall flat on their face when it comes to shipping products.

Re: The impact of competition and DeepSeek on Nvidia

#252

Post by ghostzilla » Mon, Jan 27, 2025, 5:55 PM UTC

rightbyte wrote: post #215

tw1984 wrote: post #200

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> DeepSeek just further reinforces the idea that there is a first-move disadvantage in developing AI models. you are assuming that what DeepSeek achieved can be reasonably easily replicated by other companies. then the question is when all big techs and tons of startups in China and the US are involved, how come none of those companies succeeded? deepseek is unique.

Unique, ye, but isn't their method open? I read something about a group replicating a smaller variant of their main model.

Which brings the question, if LLMs are an asset of such strategic value, why did China allow the DeepSeek to be released?

I see two possibilities here, either that the CCP is not that all-reaching as we think, or that the value of the technology isn't critical, and that the release was further cleared with the CCP and maybe even timed to come right after Trump's announcement of American AI supremacy.

Re: The impact of competition and DeepSeek on Nvidia

#253

Post by aurareturn » Mon, Jan 27, 2025, 5:56 PM UTC

itissid wrote: post #246

aurareturn wrote: post #233

Earlier quoted context omitted.

This is wrong. First mover advantage is strong. This is why OpenAI is much bigger than Mixtral despite what you said. First mover advantage acquired and keeps subscribers. No one really cares if you matched GPT4o one year later. OpenAI has had a full year to optimize the model, build tools around the model, and used the model to generate better data for their next generation foundational model.

OpenAI does not have a business model that is cashflow positive at this point and/or a product that gives them a significant leg up in the same moat sense Office/Teams might give to Microsoft.

Companies in the mobile era took a decade or more to become profitable. For example, Uber and Airbnb.

Why do you expect OpenAI to become profitable after 3 years of chatgpt?

Re: The impact of competition and DeepSeek on Nvidia

#254

Post by _DeadFred_ » Mon, Jan 27, 2025, 5:58 PM UTC

stormfather wrote: post #163

tomrod wrote: post #158

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Conversely, how much larger can you scale if frontier models only currently need 3 consumer computers? Imagine having 300. Could you build even better models? Is DeepSeek the right team to deliver that, or can OpenAI, Meta, HF, etc. adapt? Going to be an interesting few months on the market. I think OpenAI lost a LOT in the board fiasco. I am bullish on HF. I anticipate Meta will lose folks to brain drain in response…

Google is silently catching up fast with Gemini. They're also pursuing next gen architectures like Titan. But most importantly, the frontier of AI capabilities is shifting towards using RL at inference (thinking) time to perform tasks. Who has more data than Google there? They have a gargantuan database of queries paired with subsequent web nav, actions, follow up queries etc. Nobody can recreate this, Bing failed to…

How quickly the narrative went from 'Google silently has the most advanced AI but they are afraid to release it' to 'Google is silently catching up' all using the same 'core Google competencies' to infer Google's position of strength. Wonder what the next lower level of Google silently leveraging their strength will be?

Re: The impact of competition and DeepSeek on Nvidia

#255

Post by xxpor » Mon, Jan 27, 2025, 5:59 PM UTC

dplgk wrote: post #250

aurareturn wrote: post #233

Earlier quoted context omitted.

This is wrong. First mover advantage is strong. This is why OpenAI is much bigger than Mixtral despite what you said. First mover advantage acquired and keeps subscribers. No one really cares if you matched GPT4o one year later. OpenAI has had a full year to optimize the model, build tools around the model, and used the model to generate better data for their next generation foundational model.

What is OpenAI's first-mover moat? I switched to Claude with absolutely no friction or moat-jumping.

What is Google's first mover moat? I switched to Bing/DuckDuckGo with absolutely no friction or moat jumping.

Brands are incredibly powerful when talking about consumer goods.

Re: The impact of competition and DeepSeek on Nvidia

#256

Post by aurareturn » Mon, Jan 27, 2025, 5:59 PM UTC

dplgk wrote: post #250

aurareturn wrote: post #233

Earlier quoted context omitted.

This is wrong. First mover advantage is strong. This is why OpenAI is much bigger than Mixtral despite what you said. First mover advantage acquired and keeps subscribers. No one really cares if you matched GPT4o one year later. OpenAI has had a full year to optimize the model, build tools around the model, and used the model to generate better data for their next generation foundational model.

What is OpenAI's first-mover moat? I switched to Claude with absolutely no friction or moat-jumping.

OpenAI has a lot more revenue than Claude.

Late in 2024, OpenAI had $3.7b in revenue. Meanwhile, Claude’s mobile app hit $1 million in revenue around the same time.

Re: The impact of competition and DeepSeek on Nvidia

#257

Post by meiraleal » Mon, Jan 27, 2025, 6:00 PM UTC

fairity wrote: post #194

DeepSeek just further reinforces the idea that there is a first-move disadvantage in developing AI models. When someone can replicate your model for 5% of the cost in 2 years, I can only see 2 rational decisions: 1) Start focusing on cost efficiency today to reduce the advantage of the second mover (i.e. trade growth for profitability) 2) Figure out how to build a real competitive moat through one or more of the foll…

DeepSeek is profitable, openai is not. That big expensive moat won't help much when the competition knows how to fly.

Re: The impact of competition and DeepSeek on Nvidia

#258

Post by shwaj » Mon, Jan 27, 2025, 6:00 PM UTC

stormfather wrote: post #163

tomrod wrote: post #158

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Conversely, how much larger can you scale if frontier models only currently need 3 consumer computers? Imagine having 300. Could you build even better models? Is DeepSeek the right team to deliver that, or can OpenAI, Meta, HF, etc. adapt? Going to be an interesting few months on the market. I think OpenAI lost a LOT in the board fiasco. I am bullish on HF. I anticipate Meta will lose folks to brain drain in response…

Google is silently catching up fast with Gemini. They're also pursuing next gen architectures like Titan. But most importantly, the frontier of AI capabilities is shifting towards using RL at inference (thinking) time to perform tasks. Who has more data than Google there? They have a gargantuan database of queries paired with subsequent web nav, actions, follow up queries etc. Nobody can recreate this, Bing failed to…

Can you say more about using RL at inference time, ideally with a pointer to read more about it? This doesn’t fit into my mental model, in a couple of ways. The main way is right in the name: “learning” isn’t something that happens at inference time; inference is generating results from already-trained models. Perhaps you’re conflating RL with multistage (e.g. “chain of thought”) inference? Or maybe you’re talking about feeding the result of inference-time interactions with the user back into subsequent rounds of training? I’m curious to hear more.

Re: The impact of competition and DeepSeek on Nvidia

#259

Post by kpennell » Mon, Jan 27, 2025, 6:01 PM UTC

dplgk wrote: post #250

aurareturn wrote: post #233

Earlier quoted context omitted.

This is wrong. First mover advantage is strong. This is why OpenAI is much bigger than Mixtral despite what you said. First mover advantage acquired and keeps subscribers. No one really cares if you matched GPT4o one year later. OpenAI has had a full year to optimize the model, build tools around the model, and used the model to generate better data for their next generation foundational model.

What is OpenAI's first-mover moat? I switched to Claude with absolutely no friction or moat-jumping.

almost everyone I know is the same. 'Claude seems to be better and can take more data' is what I hear a lot.

Re: The impact of competition and DeepSeek on Nvidia

#260

Post by apwell23 » Mon, Jan 27, 2025, 6:02 PM UTC

aurareturn wrote: post #256

dplgk wrote: post #250

Earlier quoted context omitted.

What is OpenAI's first-mover moat? I switched to Claude with absolutely no friction or moat-jumping.

OpenAI has a lot more revenue than Claude. Late in 2024, OpenAI had $3.7b in revenue. Meanwhile, Claude’s mobile app hit $1 million in revenue around the same time.

> Late in 2024, OpenAI had $3.7b in revenue

Where do they report these ?

edit i found it here https://www.cnbc.com/2024/09/27/openai-sees-5-billion-loss-t...

"OpenAI sees roughly $5 billion loss this year on $3.7 billion in revenue"