Man, do I love myself a deep, well-researched long-form contrarian analysis published as a tangent of an already niche blog on a Sunday evening! The old web isn't dead yet :)
The impact of competition and DeepSeek on Nvidia
61–70 of 500 posts
Re: The impact of competition and DeepSeek on Nvidia
#62Earlier quoted context omitted.
If investing were as simple as looking at the P/E, all P/Es would already be at 15-20, wouldn't they?
Not saying it is as simple as looking at P/E
My point is that you have to make the case for anything being over/undervalued. The null hypothesis is that the market has correctly valued it, after all.
Re: The impact of competition and DeepSeek on Nvidia
#63English economist William Stanley Jevons vs the author of the article.
Will NVIDIA be in trouble because of DSR1 ? Interpreting Jevon’s effect, if LLMs are “steam engines” and DSR1 brings 90% efficiency improvement for the same performance, more of it will be deployed. This is not considering the increase due to tokens.
More NVIDIA GPUs will be sold to support growing use cases of more efficient LLMs.
Re: The impact of competition and DeepSeek on Nvidia
#64This is excellent writing. Even if you have no interest at all in stock market shorting strategies there is plenty of meaty technical content in here, including some of the clearest summaries I've seen anywhere of the interesting ideas from the DeepSeek v3 and R1 papers.
Thanks Simon! I’m a big fan of your writing (and tools) so it means a lot coming from you.
Re: The impact of competition and DeepSeek on Nvidia
#65Deepseek iOS app makes TikTok ban pointless.
Interesting take. They are now reading our minds vs looking at our kids and interiors.
Re: The impact of competition and DeepSeek on Nvidia
#66> The beauty of the MOE model approach is that you can decompose the big model into a collection of smaller models that each know different, non-overlapping (at least fully) pieces of knowledge. I was under the impression that this was not how MoE models work. They are not a collection of independent models, but instead a way of routing to a subset of active parameters at each layer. There is no "expert" that is load…
Not sure about DeepSeek R1, but you are right in regards to previous MoE architectures.
It doesn’t reduce memory usage, as each subsequent token might require different expert buy it reduces per token compute/bandwidth usage. If you place experts in different GPUs, and run batched inference you would see these benefits.
Re: The impact of competition and DeepSeek on Nvidia
#67Re: The impact of competition and DeepSeek on Nvidia
#68Part of the reason Musk, Zuckerberg, Ellison, Nadella and other CEOs are bragging about the number of GPUs they have (or plan to have) is to attract talent.
Perplexity CEO says he tried to hire an AI researcher from Meta, and was told to ‘come back to me when you have 10,000 H100 GPUs’
See https://www.businessinsider.nl/ceo-says-he-tried-to-hire-an-...
Re: The impact of competition and DeepSeek on Nvidia
#69Man, do I love myself a deep, well-researched long-form contrarian analysis published as a tangent of an already niche blog on a Sunday evening! The old web isn't dead yet :)
Hah thanks, that’s my favorite piece of feedback yet on this.
Re: The impact of competition and DeepSeek on Nvidia
#70> Amazon gets a lot of flak for totally bungling their internal AI model development, squandering massive amounts of internal compute resources on models that ultimately are not competitive, but the custom silicon is another matter Juicy. Anyone have a link or context to this? I'd not heard of this reception to NOVA and related.
I think Nova may have changed things here. Prior to Nova their LLMs were pretty rubbish - Nova only came out in December but seems a whole lot better, at least from initial impressions: https://simonwillison.net/2024/Dec/4/amazon-nova/
Thanks! That's consistent with my impression.