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CIA now favors lab leak theory to explain Covid's origins

nytimes.com

161–170 of 868 posts

Re: CIA now favors lab leak theory to explain Covid's origins

#161

Earlier quoted context omitted.

[flagged]

Trump (and Elon) are actually fairly pro-China. Or at least, Trump and Xi have a good relationship (and Trump was quoted last month as believing the US and China can solve many problems together), and Elon loves China.

They’re pro-themselves. China could bankrupt Musk at the stroke of a pen by kicking Tesla out, so he’s effectively their foreign agent. Trump wants bribes, and he has leverage via his unchecked power over tariffs. He even opened a convenient collection box via his cryptocurrency.

They’re well-oiled grift machines.

Re: CIA now favors lab leak theory to explain Covid's origins

#162
post #154

Things that are true: "Officials said the agency was not bending its views to a new boss, and that the new assessment had been in the works for some time." The Department of Energy concluded with low confidence that it was a lab leak. The FBI concluded with moderate confidence that it was a lab leak. The CIA's new report also concludes that they have low confidence that it was a lab leak. It's important to note that…

> the agency was not bending its views to a new boss

Trump has thrown the China hawks under the bus. To the extent anyone is winning accolades by pushing this hypothesis, it's in giving Trump leverage in a trade negotiation. That's too marginal to motivate an adverse conclusion at the CIA.

(Counterfactual: Soviet bureaucrats would notoriously produce reports for every possible conclusion, and then pick the one that would please the boss.)

Re: CIA now favors lab leak theory to explain Covid's origins

#163
post #122

It was never an implausible theory so the censorship over it was foolish. Of course the immediate jump to conclusion in the first few months by some who found it politically expedient was no better either. People need to be more comfortable saying I don’t know but we are looking into it.

Back then anyone who suggested the lab leak theory was immediately labeled a conspiracy theorist by main stream media.

[deleted]

Re: CIA now favors lab leak theory to explain Covid's origins

#165

So there’s a new president and the main intelligence agency changes its position radically in alignment with the new government. Why should we be confident in any other claim they made in the past?

And, an equally interesting question: why should we be confident in any claim they are making now?

Normally I would disregard their findings. However, the FBI, former head of the CDC, and Congressional panel all came to the same conclusion: Covid was made in a lab.

Re: CIA now favors lab leak theory to explain Covid's origins

#166
I think it’s important to note that there are really two “lab leak” theories:

One in which the virus developed naturally, was collected in a remote location, and was being studied in a lab when it leaked from the lab into nearby human society.

One in which it was not a dangerous virus originally, and it became dangerous in the lab through human agency, either maliciously (e.g. bioweapons research) or accidentally (e.g. gain-of-function research).

Note that in the first theory, the virus has a natural origin, but the pandemic originates in the lab leak.

These two theories get mixed up constantly, either by accident or on purpose, who knows. For example look at this CNN story:

https://amp.cnn.com/cnn/2025/01/25/politics/covid-19-lab-lea...

First paragraph: “The CIA now assesses the virus that causes Covid-19 more likely originated from an accidental lab leak in China, rather than occurring naturally”

Deeper in the story: “Every US intelligence agency still unanimously maintains that Covid-19 was not developed as a biological weapon” and “almost all American intelligence agencies also assess that the virus itself was not genetically engineered.”

So it didn’t occur “naturally” but also wasn’t developed or engineered. Makes no sense.

Re: CIA now favors lab leak theory to explain Covid's origins

#167
I suspect that most people are so against the lab manufactured hypothesis because they've been infected by Covid, probably multiple times, and have decided to stop taking precautions. To accept that you've been infected with a bioweapon is a pretty upsetting prospect.

Re: CIA now favors lab leak theory to explain Covid's origins

#168

I think it’s important to note that there are really two “lab leak” theories: One in which the virus developed naturally, was collected in a remote location, and was being studied in a lab when it leaked from the lab into nearby human society. One in which it was not a dangerous virus originally, and it became dangerous in the lab through human agency, either maliciously (e.g. bioweapons research) or accidentally (e.…

> These two theories get mixed up constantly, either by accident or on purpose, who knows

I'm struggling to see the practical difference. Ebola naturally evolved. I'm not sure I'm be more incensed if an American lab released natural versus artifical Ebola into the population.

Re: CIA now favors lab leak theory to explain Covid's origins

#169

> The agency made its new assessment with “low confidence,” which means the intelligence behind it is fragmentary and incomplete. I do believe that's all one really needs to know about this shift in their thinking. In other words: it's really far from certain. --- One thing that is, however, quite certain: there are very real political reasons to favor one theory or another. For example, Sen. Tom Cotton is quoted as…

> Now the most important thing is to make China pay for unleashing a plague on the world

Does COVID being a “plague” jibe with the talking point that COVID is “no worse than a cold”

Re: CIA now favors lab leak theory to explain Covid's origins

#170

So there’s a new president and the main intelligence agency changes its position radically in alignment with the new government. Why should we be confident in any other claim they made in the past?

Even if the lab leak theory is true, why Trump was so confident about it? Does he have sources that CIA does not? I would be so confident in it only in the case if I myself caused that virus leak...

Only one lab in the world doing GoF experiments on this specific furin cleavage site AND a random natural mutation happens within a few KM of this lab on this specific furin cleavage site. What are the odds of this happening? Very close to zero.
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