The US Economy is pretty vulnerable here. If it turns out that you, in fact, don't need a gazillion GPUs to build SOTA models it destroys a lot of perceived value. I wonder if this was a deliberate move by PRC or really our own fault in falling for the fallacy that more is always better.
CEO of Scale said Deepseek is lying and actually has a 50k GPU cluster. He said they lied in the paper because technically they aren't supposed to have them due to export laws. I feel like this is very likely. They obvious did some great breakthroughs, but I doubt they were able to train on so much less hardware.
DeepSeek-R1: Incentivizing Reasoning Capability in LLMs via RL
121–130 of 1001 posts
Re: DeepSeek-R1: Incentivizing Reasoning Capability in LLMs via RL
#122Q: Is there a thread about DeepSeek's (apparent) progress with lots of points and lots of quality comments? (Bonus Q: If not, why not?)
Re: DeepSeek-R1: Incentivizing Reasoning Capability in LLMs via RL
#123Reddit's /r/chatgpt subreddit is currently heavily brigaded by bots/shills praising r1, I'd be very suspicious of any claims about it.
Re: DeepSeek-R1: Incentivizing Reasoning Capability in LLMs via RL
#124Earlier quoted context omitted.
Why do americans think china is like a hivemind controlled by an omnisicient Xi, making strategic moves to undermine them? Is it really that unlikely that a lab of genius engineers found a way to improve efficiency 10x?
China is actually just one person (Xi) acting in perfect unison and its purpose is not to benefit its own people, but solely to undermine the West.
Re: DeepSeek-R1: Incentivizing Reasoning Capability in LLMs via RL
#125Context: o1 does not reason, it pattern matches. If you rename variables, suddenly it fails to solve the request.
Re: DeepSeek-R1: Incentivizing Reasoning Capability in LLMs via RL
#126I've always been leery about outrageous GPU investments, at some point I'll dig through and find my prior comments where I've said as much to that effect. The CEOs, upper management, and governments derive their importance on how much money they can spend - AI gave them the opportunity for them to confidently say that if you give me $X I can deliver Y and they turn around and give that money to NVidia. The problem wa…
Latest GPUs and efficiency are not mutually exclusive, right? If you combine them both presumably you can build even more powerful models.
Re: DeepSeek-R1: Incentivizing Reasoning Capability in LLMs via RL
#127I've always been leery about outrageous GPU investments, at some point I'll dig through and find my prior comments where I've said as much to that effect. The CEOs, upper management, and governments derive their importance on how much money they can spend - AI gave them the opportunity for them to confidently say that if you give me $X I can deliver Y and they turn around and give that money to NVidia. The problem wa…
Agree. The "need to build new buildings, new power plants, buy huge numbers of today's chips from one vendor" never made any sense considering we don't know what would be done in those buildings in 5 years when they're ready.
Then in 5 years time resources will be much cheaper and spur alot of exploration developments. There are many people with many ideas, and a lot of them are just lacking compute to attempt them.
My back of mind thought is that worst case it will be like how the US overbuilt fiber in the 90s, which led the way for cloud, network and such in 2000s.
Re: DeepSeek-R1: Incentivizing Reasoning Capability in LLMs via RL
#128Earlier quoted context omitted.
Why do americans think china is like a hivemind controlled by an omnisicient Xi, making strategic moves to undermine them? Is it really that unlikely that a lab of genius engineers found a way to improve efficiency 10x?
China is actually just one person (Xi) acting in perfect unison and its purpose is not to benefit its own people, but solely to undermine the West.
Re: DeepSeek-R1: Incentivizing Reasoning Capability in LLMs via RL
#129The US Economy is pretty vulnerable here. If it turns out that you, in fact, don't need a gazillion GPUs to build SOTA models it destroys a lot of perceived value. I wonder if this was a deliberate move by PRC or really our own fault in falling for the fallacy that more is always better.
Why do americans think china is like a hivemind controlled by an omnisicient Xi, making strategic moves to undermine them? Is it really that unlikely that a lab of genius engineers found a way to improve efficiency 10x?
Re: DeepSeek-R1: Incentivizing Reasoning Capability in LLMs via RL
#130I wonder if the decision to make o3-mini available for free user in the near (hopefully) future is a response to this really good, cheap and open reasoning model.
almost certainly (see chart) https://www.latent.space/p/reasoning-price-war (disclaimer i made it)
Also, I wonder how you’re calculating costs, because while a 3:1 ratio kind of sort of makes sense for traditional LLMs… it doesn’t really work for “reasoning” models that implicitly use several hundred to several thousand additional output tokens for their reasoning step. It’s almost like a “fixed” overhead, regardless of the input or output size around that reasoning step. (Fixed is in quotes, because some reasoning chains are longer than others.)
I would also argue that token-heavy use cases are dominated by large input/output ratios of like 100:1 or 1000:1 tokens. Token-light use cases are your typical chatbot where the user and model are exchanging roughly equal numbers of tokens… and probably not that many per message.
It’s hard to come up with an optimal formula… one would almost need to offer a dynamic chart where the user can enter their own ratio of input:output, and choose a number for the reasoning token overhead. (Or, select from several predefined options like “chatbot”, “summarization”, “coding assistant”, where those would pre-select some reasonable defaults.)
Anyways, an interesting chart nonetheless.