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100% Unemployment: on keeping busy when the robots take over (2013)

hyponymo.us

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Re: 100% Unemployment: on keeping busy when the robots take over (2013)

#41

Post by 9rx »

scrappyjoe wrote: post #34
Wilsoniumite wrote: post #30

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I wrote about this a bit on my blog [1] but to add to this idea, > Maybe prostitution to the owners will be the only available job. Pre industrial revolution, labor was in a sense cheaper than it was during the industrial revolution, and one genuinely interesting set of professions that existed then was house servants. Butlers, maids, cooks, under butlers and so on. It would not be inconceivable to see the return of…

I suppose that house servants performed two functions - menial tasks, and emotional labour. Competence at both was essential. A house servant who was great at making beds but super annoying or had no emotional intelligence probably didn't last very long. The menial tasks component will probably be automated away. Which leaves the emotional labour. Put another way, our job will be to be liked by the people with power.…

> our job will be to be liked by the people with power.

So, for most people, no change from the job they are already doing?

Re: 100% Unemployment: on keeping busy when the robots take over (2013)

#42

Post by A4ET8a8uTh0_v2 »

DoctorDabadedoo wrote: post #33
nxm wrote: post #16

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Please elaborate

Robotics is hard and robotics companies fold as fast as flies die on a hot summer day.

I am not suggesting it is easy. I am saying, it is a lot more likely now than 10 years ago.

Re: 100% Unemployment: on keeping busy when the robots take over (2013)

#43

Post by fendy3002 »

whatever1 wrote: post #7

The machines will have owners; likely, these owners will be very few due to the concentration of wealth that they will have accumulated by the time we reach full automation. So, probably a guy will own all the agricultural automation, another one the warehouse automation, another one the software, etc. Then there will also be the resource owners (probably states or big landlords). Since resources are finite (land, mi…

there's two ways to face this situation, the pessimistic one is to just die. Futuristic sci-fi stories usually have endangered human or even human extinction aspect in there, with / without harsh climate and / or war / conflict.

The optimistic? Hold out until the chance come. In thousands (millions) years of human civilization, not a single civilization can stay eternal. That kind of civilization will perish too, if not the humanity to perish first, especially because Murphy's law (if something can go wrong, it will, and usually at the worst time).

And IMO that kind of civilization will still have a long way to arrive, and we're more likely already dead before it arrive. Because that one Murphy's law, and limited resources for automation. In an area where infrastructure is not yet sufficient, usually human are the best to handle the job.

Re: 100% Unemployment: on keeping busy when the robots take over (2013)

#44

Post by Cantinflas »

thrance wrote: post #21
whatever1 wrote: post #7

The machines will have owners; likely, these owners will be very few due to the concentration of wealth that they will have accumulated by the time we reach full automation. So, probably a guy will own all the agricultural automation, another one the warehouse automation, another one the software, etc. Then there will also be the resource owners (probably states or big landlords). Since resources are finite (land, mi…

We'll have to seize it all by then.

Violence can also be taken over by robots, it's another job that they can do better

Re: 100% Unemployment: on keeping busy when the robots take over (2013)

#45

Post by leovingi »

scandox wrote: post #15

With Folded Hands (1947) by Jack Williamson is my favourite vision of such a future I've ever read. From the Dad losing his job to the kids giving up violin because they can't compete with their Humanoid "servants" it captures the sense of futility very well. I think history can be read as a history of human obsolescence. Even the powerful people who thought their values and ideas were important thrown on the scrap h…

>kids giving up violin because they can't compete with their Humanoid "servants"

It's an interesting situation to consider in a fictional story, except we already have real-world proof of this NOT happening the way some authors envision it. We already have machines that can beat master players at Chess and it hasn't led to people giving up on chess - not playing it, not learning it.

Re: 100% Unemployment: on keeping busy when the robots take over (2013)

#46

Post by htjatg »

Many here say that a political revolution will follow. That is possible, but the oligarchs could equip a foreign legion with no cultural affinity towards the population.

Or those that plunder Tolkien for their company names will succeed in their Skynet endeavors. Anduril currently seems like a joke, hopefully it stays that way. On the other hand, the satellite network required for coordinating Skynet is already operational.

Re: 100% Unemployment: on keeping busy when the robots take over (2013)

#47

Post by gpderetta »

jokoon wrote: post #24

If AI can barely replace car drivers or truck drivers, I think developers will unfortunately have to keep writing code. Of course AI made progress in the language realm with chatGPT, but I don't see any advance in the realm of consciousness, general AI, emotions, etc. There was some recent, small progress where the brain of a fly was mapped. But I don't see transverse research made between cognition, psychology, neur…

We have little reason to believe that intellectual jobs are harder to automate than physical jobs. Consider the Moravec's paradox (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Moravec%27s_paradox).

Re: 100% Unemployment: on keeping busy when the robots take over (2013)

#48

Post by DoctorDabadedoo »

A4ET8a8uTh0_v2 wrote: post #42
DoctorDabadedoo wrote: post #33

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Robotics is hard and robotics companies fold as fast as flies die on a hot summer day.

I am not suggesting it is easy. I am saying, it is a lot more likely now than 10 years ago.

I believe some problems in the field are now easier, we haven't made a dent on the truly hard ones, IMO.

source: I work in the field.

Re: 100% Unemployment: on keeping busy when the robots take over (2013)

#49

Post by thrance »

Cumpiler69 wrote: post #28
thrance wrote: post #21

Earlier quoted context omitted.

We'll have to seize it all by then.

How do you propose we do the seizing? Historically that never had good results, because the people who want to seize the wealth and the power are exactly those who shouldn't have it and be trusted with it, so you're exchanging one set of oligarchs with another set of despots.

It's hard to make predictions for such a hypothetical future, but let me try anyway.

If we ever reach 100% unemployment, the working class (in which I inlcude all that depend on wages to live) will lose its only leverage in today's world: its labor. This is bound to make the situation very dire, very quickly for the vast majority of the population (>99%). I see only two solutions:

* Either the owners push for some kind of UBI to buy social peace, leaving us with just enough that we don't hang them.

* Or they rely on robocops (or regular cops) to keep us in line. In which case it's either rebellion or slow extinction for us.

My preferred solution would be to install a new political system that ensures fair redistribution of products and good management of natural resources, which I think is easily achievable in a world of AGI and robots.

Re: 100% Unemployment: on keeping busy when the robots take over (2013)

#50

Post by thrance »

Cantinflas wrote: post #44
thrance wrote: post #21

Earlier quoted context omitted.

We'll have to seize it all by then.

Violence can also be taken over by robots, it's another job that they can do better

Yes, this is frightening. Hopefully the large number of people that will be disenfranchised by 100% unemployment are enough to fight back before it's too late.
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