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100% Unemployment: on keeping busy when the robots take over (2013)

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Re: 100% Unemployment: on keeping busy when the robots take over (2013)

#31

Post by samiv »

The robots as most people might expect will not take over.

The robots will be the software that will slowly start to replace knowledge workers or anyone who works with a computer.

If you conduct your work on a computer someone is already planning to replace you with software. Think about that for a second.

Incidentally also the knowledge workers are typically the higher income classes in a society. When their jobs start getting cut across the board where will they go?

Releasing workers that used to work with computers in offices with no replacement jobs has only one direction and that is to re-train as a skilled worker such carpenter, plumber etc. (Nothing wrong with those jobs), but all that motion and extra surplus of blue collar workers is going to drive down the wages. Also who will be able to pay these workers a living wage? Bezos and Musk and the few other winners of this game called "capitalism"? In this world the humans will become the "robots" at low cost and will essentially be replaceable and only exist to serve those few with still wealth to go around.

I honestly believe in the future we really need to rethink the whole structure of the society (basic income) or else the economy is going to displace a lot of people to the fringes of the society working 3-jobs and living out of a car. (Or just downright slums/streets). And when that happens to enough people and there's a critical mass of people with "nothing to lose" revolutions will start.

The late Marshall Brain had written a short story "Manna" that is very prescient and outlines a few possible alternative futures for the man kind. Unfortunately personally I'm not very optimistic about a "good" outcome.

Re: 100% Unemployment: on keeping busy when the robots take over (2013)

#32

Post by chii »

whatever1 wrote: post #7

The machines will have owners; likely, these owners will be very few due to the concentration of wealth that they will have accumulated by the time we reach full automation. So, probably a guy will own all the agricultural automation, another one the warehouse automation, another one the software, etc. Then there will also be the resource owners (probably states or big landlords). Since resources are finite (land, mi…

> Maybe prostitution to the owners will be the only available job.

or something new that an ai or machine hasn't managed yet, and something that have not been imagined today. And why not prostitution, if it comes to it?

And with the automation being so widespread, goods would be so cheap that the meagre taxes paid would sustain the costs of food stamps, basic living necessities, etc.

Re: 100% Unemployment: on keeping busy when the robots take over (2013)

#33

Post by DoctorDabadedoo »

nxm wrote: post #16
A4ET8a8uTh0_v2 wrote: post #6

Time flies. I suppose the difference between now and 2013 are LLMs, which did seem to trigger renewed interest in robotics and related branches of knowledge. That said, if history is any indicator, it will not go well.

Please elaborate

Robotics is hard and robotics companies fold as fast as flies die on a hot summer day.

Re: 100% Unemployment: on keeping busy when the robots take over (2013)

#34

Post by scrappyjoe »

Wilsoniumite wrote: post #30
whatever1 wrote: post #7

The machines will have owners; likely, these owners will be very few due to the concentration of wealth that they will have accumulated by the time we reach full automation. So, probably a guy will own all the agricultural automation, another one the warehouse automation, another one the software, etc. Then there will also be the resource owners (probably states or big landlords). Since resources are finite (land, mi…

I wrote about this a bit on my blog [1] but to add to this idea, > Maybe prostitution to the owners will be the only available job. Pre industrial revolution, labor was in a sense cheaper than it was during the industrial revolution, and one genuinely interesting set of professions that existed then was house servants. Butlers, maids, cooks, under butlers and so on. It would not be inconceivable to see the return of…

I suppose that house servants performed two functions - menial tasks, and emotional labour. Competence at both was essential. A house servant who was great at making beds but super annoying or had no emotional intelligence probably didn't last very long.

The menial tasks component will probably be automated away. Which leaves the emotional labour. Put another way, our job will be to be liked by the people with power. Liked enough to be kept around.

The only job left in the future is that of the pet.

Re: 100% Unemployment: on keeping busy when the robots take over (2013)

#35

Post by Ekaros »

whatever1 wrote: post #7

The machines will have owners; likely, these owners will be very few due to the concentration of wealth that they will have accumulated by the time we reach full automation. So, probably a guy will own all the agricultural automation, another one the warehouse automation, another one the software, etc. Then there will also be the resource owners (probably states or big landlords). Since resources are finite (land, mi…

> Maybe prostitution to the owners will be the only available job.

I wonder, I wonder... I think there is certain prestige companion jobs that might exist. But your AI girlfriends and why not sex dolls with perfect bodies tailored to taste can do lot of the lifting.

Then again, child bearing and rearing might be viable "occupation". After all having lot of kids have been always been popular in certain classes.

Re: 100% Unemployment: on keeping busy when the robots take over (2013)

#36

Post by lm28469 »

whatever1 wrote: post #7

The machines will have owners; likely, these owners will be very few due to the concentration of wealth that they will have accumulated by the time we reach full automation. So, probably a guy will own all the agricultural automation, another one the warehouse automation, another one the software, etc. Then there will also be the resource owners (probably states or big landlords). Since resources are finite (land, mi…

That sounds a lot like what we already have, the HN crowd is just lucky to be in the top 30% earners

Re: 100% Unemployment: on keeping busy when the robots take over (2013)

#37

Post by ipdashc »

samiv wrote: post #31

The robots as most people might expect will not take over. The robots will be the software that will slowly start to replace knowledge workers or anyone who works with a computer. If you conduct your work on a computer someone is already planning to replace you with software. Think about that for a second. Incidentally also the knowledge workers are typically the higher income classes in a society. When their jobs st…

> short story "Manna" that is very prescient and outlines a few possible alternative futures for the man kind. Unfortunately personally I'm not very optimistic about a "good" outcome.

Yeah, it's a good story and pretty thought-provoking, but it's kind of hilarious how quickly the quality nosedives once it switches to the "good" scenario. IMO you can tell he believed in the "bad" one a lot more and it feels like the good one was just shoehorned in to supply an optimistic option. Which is a bit scary...

Re: 100% Unemployment: on keeping busy when the robots take over (2013)

#38

Post by A4ET8a8uTh0_v2 »

nxm wrote: post #16
A4ET8a8uTh0_v2 wrote: post #6

Time flies. I suppose the difference between now and 2013 are LLMs, which did seem to trigger renewed interest in robotics and related branches of knowledge. That said, if history is any indicator, it will not go well.

Please elaborate

None of what I am about to write is groundbreaking or new thought. More likely than not, it already has been discussed from various perspectives usually when people are accused of being luddites or a question of impact of automation on society comes along.

Industrial revolutions ( as there were several including few not listed in the first wiki entry like green revolution [2] or whatever computer revolution ended up being called)[1] at this core did a lot of things, but in just about every instance the major leap came with a social upheavals[3] even if, eventually, new normal was found. Not surprisingly, related major changes in living conditions also spawned new attempts at governing humans ( socialism and its offspring ).

All this simple background to say the following, those industrial revolutions changed only a facet of the existing social structure. 100% unemployment would likely implode existing social order. The tension resulting from it would quickly become uncontrollable unless quickly channeled, negated, or absorbed..

As you can likely tell, I am pretty pessimistic about our future as a species.

[1]https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Industrial_Revolution [2]https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Green_Revolution [3]https://schoolshistory.org.uk/topics/british-history/industr...

Re: 100% Unemployment: on keeping busy when the robots take over (2013)

#39

Post by Oarch »

scandox wrote: post #15

With Folded Hands (1947) by Jack Williamson is my favourite vision of such a future I've ever read. From the Dad losing his job to the kids giving up violin because they can't compete with their Humanoid "servants" it captures the sense of futility very well. I think history can be read as a history of human obsolescence. Even the powerful people who thought their values and ideas were important thrown on the scrap h…

My favourite is Player Piano by Vonnegut. I find it absurd how prescient it is for a novel that came out in 1952.
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