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Startup Winter: Hacker News Lost Its Faith

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Re: Startup Winter: Hacker News Lost Its Faith

#411

Post by rrr_oh_man »

sofixa wrote: post #293
cushychicken wrote: post #144

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The Swedes sure seem to think so. Per capita Swedish entrepreneurship is like 7x the rest of the euro zone, and they’re convinced that it’s that aspect of the social safety net that help prop up that high level of personal risk taking.

It's not the only factor for sure, but it definitely contributes. Jokingly Swedish and Spanish colleagues have said that weather probably plays a part too - because it's so cold outside, lots of time is spent indoors - some of it with friends socialising or chilling (they even have a word for it, Fika), but not only. So you have lots of opportunities to read, think, explore, experiment. In contrast, in Spain the weat…

That sounds like https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Environmental_determinism

Re: Startup Winter: Hacker News Lost Its Faith

#412

Post by gr4vityWall »

tossandthrow wrote: post #232
hardwaresofton wrote: post #127

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> For me, the main issue is that every time I voice the idea about building something I get bombarded with premature growth and commercialization concerns instead of excitement about how to solve the problem. I think this is endemic - the entire sector is short sighted and profit obsessed. Do you think some of this is idea related? If you're building software, many new ideas are not truly innovative in a way that wou…

When I pitch my calorie counter app that uses AI - fair, that is not new. But eg. working on an idea around decentralized dating app that utilizes federated learning, blockchains, en cryptographic distributed filesystems to make a truly open and algorithmically transparent dating app - and the response is: "But how are you ever going to make money off that" instead of starting to jam on good privacy preserving techni…

> and the response is: "But how are you ever going to make money off that"

I believe one cause for this response is how someone tells the other person about that idea. If you make it clear that you are building something for fun, I think that response becomes less likely. But if they believe your project idea is also a start up idea, then they may ask about the business side.

Sometimes I do see a cognitive dissonance when computer-first people and business-first people discuss software. IMO, making it clear where the person starting the conversation is coming from would help both groups not talk past each other when engaging. A startup-minded person won't necessarily ask about monetization if the other person made it clear they're talking about a hobby. I believe it would be less likely, at least.

Re: Startup Winter: Hacker News Lost Its Faith

#413

Post by rrr_oh_man »

MrLeap wrote: post #7
tossandthrow wrote: post #5

IMHO building startup became a status symbol which means that the payment in respect for making a courageous adventure is lost and commoditized. We are slowly seeing the same for academia. Point 2 resonates with me. Risk adjusted it is very unlikely that one will make a reasonable salary doing startups. So it is conviction and heart that needs to drive it. For me, the main issue is that every time I voice the idea ab…

> I get bombarded with premature growth and commercialization concerns instead of excitement about how to solve the problem. I feel this. I keep thinking there has to be a competitive advantage in being more conscious about the creation than the extraction. The latter seems to be a strangling force on the former.

> The latter seems to be a strangling force on the former.

Bozo brainrot

Re: Startup Winter: Hacker News Lost Its Faith

#414

Post by Traubenfuchs »

troupo wrote: post #383
Traubenfuchs wrote: post #363

Earlier quoted context omitted.

For me the better question is: Why is anyone with enough money to invest in startups not just investing that money in a safe index fund or real estate instead?

Gambling is an addiction :) Also, if you manage to get rich, you can afford more risks... in the hopes of getting even richer

> Also, if you manage to get rich, you can afford more risks... in the hopes of getting even richer

I lacked the empathy to consider it from that perspective.

I guess "Even if I got rich, I would play it safe." is just my poor people scarcity mindset instead of an abundance mindset.

Re: Startup Winter: Hacker News Lost Its Faith

#415

Post by liontwist »

swiftcoder wrote: post #379
liontwist wrote: post #259

Earlier quoted context omitted.

That’s a good point. Also the engineer personality tends to be extremely risk averse.

I'm not sure I agree with that - good engineers should be experts at managing risk. True risk aversion is an impediment in most fields that engineers are called to solve problems in. That said, we're also pretty analytical, and when one could warm a seat in FAANG for ~$400k/year, even many successful startups weren't outperforming that TC.

People generally don’t look at risk for work projects than same as risk to their personal life.

All I’m saying is engineers tend to like certainty and predictability in their personal life.

Re: Startup Winter: Hacker News Lost Its Faith

#416

Post by rrr_oh_man »

nostradumbasp wrote: post #172
ludwigvan wrote: post #36

Most engineers figured out that the options/stocks of startups are worthless.

9 times out of 10 the company sells, performs a reduction in force, or goes under before they vest. 1 time out of 1000 the company is worth something and remains operable over a 5 year period. Rules of thumb for the green engineers: - Take salary/health insurance over stock in almost all cases. - At some companies employees who are greener and greedier will fight/sabotage all their peers to get rid of them, is this t…

> If it isn't in writing you are not getting it.

Golden words to live by.

Re: Startup Winter: Hacker News Lost Its Faith

#417

Post by rrr_oh_man »

pjc50 wrote: post #236
chamomeal wrote: post #192

Earlier quoted context omitted.

What about if the valuation was super low when you received the options agreement? For instance, if I got $5,000 worth of options when the company was “worth” 1 million, is that a safe bet to buy into? Like surely the founder would be able to sell the company for 1 million dollars instead of crashing and burning… right?

> surely the founder would be able to sell the company for 1 million dollars instead of crashing and burning That is absolutely not guaranteed at all! It's not even guaranteed that the next funding round will be on a better basis, or not dilute you. The pre-IPO market for companies is illiquid and bad at price discovery.

> That is absolutely not guaranteed at all! It's not even guaranteed that the next funding round will be on a better basis, or not dilute you.

It's not even guaranteed that there will be a funding round at all. Raising money is extremely hard, for most companies.

Re: Startup Winter: Hacker News Lost Its Faith

#419

Post by troupo »

Traubenfuchs wrote: post #414
troupo wrote: post #383

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Gambling is an addiction :) Also, if you manage to get rich, you can afford more risks... in the hopes of getting even richer

> Also, if you manage to get rich, you can afford more risks... in the hopes of getting even richer I lacked the empathy to consider it from that perspective. I guess "Even if I got rich, I would play it safe." is just my poor people scarcity mindset instead of an abundance mindset.

> I lacked the empathy to consider it from that perspective.

It wasn't my original idea either :)

Re: Startup Winter: Hacker News Lost Its Faith

#420

Post by NoMoreNicksLeft »

diffxx wrote: post #304
NoMoreNicksLeft wrote: post #282

Earlier quoted context omitted.

>Dodgy accounting & staff retention meant that actually you don't get fuckyou money. What is fuckyou money at this point? Take the Mega Millions lottery jackpot, it's default is $20 million nominal. You get cash payout instead of annuity, now it's about $10 million. Maybe you live in a state without income tax (I do), but the feds get their cut, now it's $5 millionish. You look for a nicer house (been living in an ap…

My definition is very different. It is about my ability to have control over my life in the areas that matter most to me. I value my time and personal development above material wealth (to a point). I don't need a giant house. I don't need regular fancy vacations or to own a car. I personally have been not working and living comfortably on much much less than 5mm in a high cost of living city for over five years. I d…

>I value my time and personal development abov

That's a young man thing. Still trying to grow, to attract mates, etc. It switches (at least for those who develop correctly), to be able to provide for offspring and descendants material wealth is key.

>I don't need a giant house.

Perhaps, but we were talking about fuckyou money. Living in a crackerbox isn't an indication or test of fuckyou money... if Warren Buffet drives a beat up pickup truck, he's not interested in signalling fuckyou money. But he could also drive 31 different Ferraris, one for every day of the month right? My point was that fuckyou money has changed, and that by any measure even lottery jackpots aren't really fuckyou money anymore. Those are "yay, we get to send the kids to college without them being debt slaves" money. It's a strange world now days, that didn't used to be the case.

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