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Ask HN: Can we just admit we want to replace jobs with AI?

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Re: Ask HN: Can we just admit we want to replace jobs with AI?

#111

Post by insane_dreamer »

physicsguy wrote: post #105
disambiguation wrote: post #100

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I also aspire(d) to be a physics teacher, but I'm pessimistic about it. Things like khan academy already make "teaching" obsolete, imagine pairing that with an GPT93 agent. 24/7 interactive learning.

All the research I've seen around MOOCs and online only learning is that it's pretty tough for people to stick at, and only 5-10% of people ever complete a course. I just can't see that putting people in front of a computer to do this sort of thing is a good strategy for everyone.

you're right, it's not

but if the cost of doing so is so much less than the in-person experience, then it will become the norm, while the in-person experience becomes relegated to the wealthy like those who can afford private colleges today. And not that many professors will be needed, so good luck!

Re: Ask HN: Can we just admit we want to replace jobs with AI?

#112

Post by insane_dreamer »

waltercool wrote: post #98
EZ-E wrote: post #61

I still don't think AI will displace a lot of jobs. Am I the only one left? I'm sure it had had impact in copywriting/translation but I don't see a tsunami.

[flagged]

> better labor conditions

hang on there! the industrial revolution brought people into _worse_ labor conditions -- it wasn't technology that created better work environments, it was worker protests that did so, and it took decades

Re: Ask HN: Can we just admit we want to replace jobs with AI?

#113

Post by [deleted] »

weatherlite wrote: post #72
slooonz wrote: post #70

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> For now - we're not there at all. Both OpenAI and Anthropic think it’s a question of a couple of years at most. Gwern, who has a good track record of predictions, think so too. We’re pretty much here. I arrived at the same conclusion independently. Not because I’m a genius like Gwern and Could Work at a Big Lab if I Wanted, but because it is in fact pretty obvious. People focus way too much on the current limitatio…

You could be right. I don't have enough knowledge in the field and I'm not sure 'trend predictions' work that well. Why aren't there autonomous vehicles already? Why does Waymo have to deploy them city by city? When I learned to drive I learned to drive - you didn't have to teach me how to drive in L.A , then San Francsisco, Then Pheonix etc. Is it only about Waymo being careful or are these things not yet good enoug…

[deleted]

Re: Ask HN: Can we just admit we want to replace jobs with AI?

#114

Post by senordevnyc »

caeril wrote: post #101
gnfargbl wrote: post #15

But how is an individual supposed to "prepare" for AGI? The outcome of further automation will be to move even more capital under the control of an even smaller number of hands. It's that increasing inequality which is the problem, not AGI.

[flagged]

I'm curious where this level of bitterness is coming from. It doesn't seem healthy.

Re: Ask HN: Can we just admit we want to replace jobs with AI?

#115

Post by senordevnyc »

mostlysimilar wrote: post #104
listenallyall wrote: post #95

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Our leadership are greedy fools. Why? Because our government hasn't seized the assets of the AI companies, like intellectual eminent domain? This is brand new technology from which nobody knows the eventual impact on society (hence the discussion in this thread). And if the government did take it over, who would continue to build it, earning a govt salary?

Are you really so intellectually un-curious that this is the only alternative you can envision? How about a government that recognizes the benefits of technological progress but ensures the rewards are shared by all instead of just a select few?

To be fair, they were specifically responding to a comment about "the means of production being owned collectively", which sounds exactly like the government seizing assets.

Re: Ask HN: Can we just admit we want to replace jobs with AI?

#116

Post by insane_dreamer »

cadamsdotcom wrote: post #65
Havoc wrote: post #33

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Thing is when manual jobs got replaced we escaped to knowledge work. This time there is no equivalent. These lawnmower/textile worker analogies fall flat because this time might actually be different

Knowledge work is too broad a definition. There’s immense potential to reduce the “creative drudgery” in work - think background art, music for malls, first drafts of company comms… Some knowledge work has more leverage than other knowledge work. We don’t have a term for this distinction right now. But the low-leverage work will get automated, leaving us with more pleasant, higher-level, more creative jobs. This is j…

the problem is that it requires very few knowledge users to design things vs the many that it takes to put them into production

the question remains, what will the other 90% who aren't needed anymore do in order to survive economically?

Re: Ask HN: Can we just admit we want to replace jobs with AI?

#117

Post by insane_dreamer »

Throw83949489 wrote: post #18

> we aren't advancing humanity with AI, it is just focused on automating out jobs. We are doing both! You are assuming people like to work, and jobs are something good. Without jobs, people will have less stress and more free time. They will spend more time on leisure activities, with their families, and so on. Also jobs contribute to carbon emissions, we have to maintain cities, large offices, car makes CO2 for comm…

> Without jobs, people will have less stress and more free time. They will spend more time on leisure activities, with their families, and so on.

and how will they pay for rent, food, etc.? __that's__ the question

Re: Ask HN: Can we just admit we want to replace jobs with AI?

#118

Post by insane_dreamer »

EZ-E wrote: post #61

I still don't think AI will displace a lot of jobs. Am I the only one left? I'm sure it had had impact in copywriting/translation but I don't see a tsunami.

these things take time -- first, industry specific tools leveraging LLMs have to be created and take root; then companies slowly implement those by freezing new hires and not filling positions that empty, reducing their costs and leaving the rest of the employees to pick up the slack because they are now "more productive" thanks to AI

Re: Ask HN: Can we just admit we want to replace jobs with AI?

#120

Post by caeril »

senordevnyc wrote: post #114
caeril wrote: post #101

Earlier quoted context omitted.

[flagged]

I'm curious where this level of bitterness is coming from. It doesn't seem healthy.

Is there an argument here beyond armchair psychologizing?

GPT-3 is over 4 years old. The writing was on the wall then. FAANG status-strivers had plenty of warning to maybe stop blowing their TC on impressing other people, and choose instead to sock something away.

Most chose not to, because living the "right" lifestyle was far more important than prudence. It is for these people that just desserts are in store.

The Social Network and its consequences have been a disaster for the software engineering race. It marked the Eternal September when this profession was inundated with greedy normies who don't care about software, but rather their wealth and status. The end of this era could not come quickly enough.

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