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Ask HN: Can we just admit we want to replace jobs with AI?

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Re: Ask HN: Can we just admit we want to replace jobs with AI?

#31

Post by Throw83949489 »

karles wrote: post #25
Throw83949489 wrote: post #18

> we aren't advancing humanity with AI, it is just focused on automating out jobs. We are doing both! You are assuming people like to work, and jobs are something good. Without jobs, people will have less stress and more free time. They will spend more time on leisure activities, with their families, and so on. Also jobs contribute to carbon emissions, we have to maintain cities, large offices, car makes CO2 for comm…

How will they pay the bills when the 1%-hoarders are keeping all the profits for themselves, and now that the Oligarchy is in full reign in the US, taxes and "big bad socialism" is out of the question?

My country had socialism for 40 years. It is highly overrated.

Re: Ask HN: Can we just admit we want to replace jobs with AI?

#32

Post by sureIy »

laptopdev wrote: post #7

We dont align our current actions with AGI. Rather, we align our actions with a presumption of what we think AGI is to become (assuming some inevitability). Some people believe AGI is imminent, others believe AGI is here now. Observe their behavior, calm your anticipation, and satisfy your curiosoty rather than seeking to confirm a bias on the matter. The tech is new in my experience and accepting claims beyond my ca…

The problem is that exactly tomorrow someone might announce some technology that will revolutionize AI once again, like ChatGPT did only a couple of years ago. No one expected that. No one expected creative jobs to be taken by Midjourney.

We could hide behind "we can't predict the future" but it would be wise to get ready for that inevitability.

One day you will ask your computer to "open a word processor" and it will pull a fully-featured Word 2013 out of thin air. What will developers do then?

That day could be March 1st, 2025 or 2050. Many of us will likely still be in the jobs pool either way.

Re: Ask HN: Can we just admit we want to replace jobs with AI?

#33

Post by Havoc »

cadamsdotcom wrote: post #21

Let’s chat about lawnmowers. There was a time when cutting grass was done with scythes, specially shaped swords. All day back and forth swinging the blade to get grass just the perfect length. Swing, take a step, swing. It was backbreaking labor in the sun. So lawns probably were quite expensive and having your own was probably pretty flashy, or maybe they were public, provided by the state to the people, or maybe bo…

Thing is when manual jobs got replaced we escaped to knowledge work. This time there is no equivalent.

These lawnmower/textile worker analogies fall flat because this time might actually be different

Re: Ask HN: Can we just admit we want to replace jobs with AI?

#35

Post by Tade0 »

My position is that the demographic collapse in countries with a near 100% literacy rate is going to more than make up for any jobs replaced by AI.

It is said that AI will make 200 million jobs redundant. China's workforce alone shrunk by 80 million during the previous decade according to their 2020 census.

Overall I think we need to increase efforts with AI, particularly make it more energy efficient, as currently it's simply expensive to run, if we wish to not bear the consequences of having a globally ageing literate population.

Re: Ask HN: Can we just admit we want to replace jobs with AI?

#36

Post by globalise83 »

gnfargbl wrote: post #15

But how is an individual supposed to "prepare" for AGI? The outcome of further automation will be to move even more capital under the control of an even smaller number of hands. It's that increasing inequality which is the problem, not AGI.

If you are right, a modest investment in an index fund of shares covering tech companies in the USA should generate enough returns over the next few years to retire in comfort.

Re: Ask HN: Can we just admit we want to replace jobs with AI?

#37

Post by Havoc »

xgstation wrote: post #20

from Company perspective, I think the answer is yes but from individual perspective I don't think that is the case. Since AlphaGo first time was released and beat world-class players, have all these players gone? not really, but it even promotes more people study Go with AI instead. As a software engineer myself, am I enjoy using AI for coding? yes, for many trivial and repetitive works, but do I want it to take my c…

> have all these players gone?

The guy that got beaten literally decided to retire immediately after explicitly because AI displaced him

> On 19 November 2019, Lee announced his retirement from professional play, stating that he could never be the top overall player of Go due to the increasing dominance of AI.

I do get your point though that overall player count is still fine

Re: Ask HN: Can we just admit we want to replace jobs with AI?

#38

Post by weatherlite »

gnfargbl wrote: post #15

But how is an individual supposed to "prepare" for AGI? The outcome of further automation will be to move even more capital under the control of an even smaller number of hands. It's that increasing inequality which is the problem, not AGI.

You're right. It's tough, I'm not gonna tell you otherwise. I think there are 3 main things most people should try to do:

1) Mental preparation - understanding your current career is finite (be it 5 more years or 20, its not gonna last forever) and broaden and deepen other things in your life such as family, friends and hobbies. I've contemplated the loss of my career hundreds of times already if not thousands, I do it almost on a daily basis (not for hours, just a few moments of a passing thought). It's kind of the opposite of denial and it seems helpful for me to do it.

2) Financials - an obvious one. We should all accept that quite possibly our standard of living will be lower 10 years from now. It's not a certainty, but the likelihood is high enough that we need to be more frugal - which means both trying to save money as much as we can and also learning to enjoy things that don't cost a lot of money.

3) Possible career pivot - there will be opportunities. Some parts of the labour market are starving for employees and I don't mean just the trades - there's a constant need for nurses, teachers, care etc. The problem is these jobs are notorious for burning their workers out; I don't have a solution for that.

Re: Ask HN: Can we just admit we want to replace jobs with AI?

#39

Post by spiderfarmer »

gnfargbl wrote: post #15

But how is an individual supposed to "prepare" for AGI? The outcome of further automation will be to move even more capital under the control of an even smaller number of hands. It's that increasing inequality which is the problem, not AGI.

Most people I know that learned a classic trade (plasterers, tilers, builders in general) are making a lot of money due to shortages that will not be resolved anytime soon due to structural problems in our educational system. That is my plan B. So I don’t worry about AGI.

Re: Ask HN: Can we just admit we want to replace jobs with AI?

#40

Post by physicsguy »

It feels to me like there'll start to be people retraining sooner rather than later. If you feel your job is threatened, you're likely to look at options that can't be easily displaced. I did a Physics degree and PhD and my 'backups' are going to do something in the very very regulated nuclear industry (currently crying out for people in the UK) or going into teaching.

I think the people who will be most easily displaced are those that don't have an additional combined skillset. I see a lot of software engineers with a CS background whose skillset is only writing software. I think people from mixed backgrounds are likely to do better in a big disruption since they've got another thing to jump to, perhaps in a different industry.

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