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Starship Flight 7

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Re: Starship Flight 7

#561
post #454

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Running a code test doesn't require firing a rocket. How would you test a rocket?

Test code by running it. Test a rocket by launching it.

I would consider these launches test launches. Production is when they include commercial payloads and humans.

Re: Starship Flight 7

#562

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Increased launch cadence is an operational achievement, not an engineering one. And I'm not so sure that they actually decreased price to launch all that much. First of all, it's definitely not "several orders of magnitude", the best numbers quoted are maybe half price or so for a Falcon 9 compared to another contemporary rocket. And by my understanding, the US government at least is paying about as much for Falcon 9…

NASA pays both Boeing and SpaceX less than Soyuz was.

Less than Soyuz charged them. Soyuz was a very cheap platform to the Russians, but they also understood when they had their customers over a barrel.

Re: Starship Flight 7

#563

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The Apollo program was inventing all of this technology, and using only extremely rudimentary computers, still doing many calculations with slide rulers. SpaceX has all of the Apollo program's work to build on, and computers that could do all the computing work that the Apollo program ever made, in total, in probably a few minutes.

this doesn't even scratch the surface. Slow motion cameras and real time sensors for debugging hardware issues, computer simulations, 3d printing. Apollo program directors would advocate to start a nuclear war with ussr if they could get hands on that kind of tech. But also NASA landed two SUVs on mars first try, using skycrane, Full remote. they developed and built mars helicopter/drone (rip). First try. But spaceX…

Apollo program was a major achievement, probably the largest in the history of humanity as of yet. But SpaceX definitely should get a credit for "breaking things", or for running agile dev cycle with hardware ("hardware heavy"). Let's just strap engines to a fuel tank and try to fly it. Let's just build a body by welding steel plates together and see what happens. Let's just launch this thing to 20 miles and see if we can make it aerobrake and land it with the engines. Iterate by learning and constantly improving. Nobody done it at that scale as of yet.

(Which of course is only possible if you have the Founding Father with a few billion $$ just laying around)

Re: Starship Flight 7

#564

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Increased launch cadence is an operational achievement, not an engineering one. And I'm not so sure that they actually decreased price to launch all that much. First of all, it's definitely not "several orders of magnitude", the best numbers quoted are maybe half price or so for a Falcon 9 compared to another contemporary rocket. And by my understanding, the US government at least is paying about as much for Falcon 9…

NASA pays both Boeing and SpaceX less than Soyuz was.

According to this [0] article from Business Insider, from 2006 to 2019, per seat costs for NASA from Russia rose from less than $25M ($38M inflation adjusted) to around $81M ($101M inflation adjusted). The cost per seat in 2012, the year after the USA lost crewed space launch capability entirely, was ~$55M ($75M inflation adjusted). According to this [1] article from Reuters, NASA is currently paying Boeing $90M, and SpaceX $55M per seat.

So, NASA today is paying Boeing more than the monopoly prices Russia charged (up to 2016 or so), and paying both of them more than Russia was charging back when they were competing with the Space Shuttle. And it's paying SpaceX about half of the top price it payed Russia per seat, still nowhere close to an order of magnitude in cost savings.

[0] https://www.businessinsider.com/astronaut-cost-per-soyuz-sea...

[1] https://www.reuters.com/science/boeing-sending-first-astrona...

Re: Starship Flight 7

#565

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Increased launch cadence is an operational achievement, not an engineering one. And I'm not so sure that they actually decreased price to launch all that much. First of all, it's definitely not "several orders of magnitude", the best numbers quoted are maybe half price or so for a Falcon 9 compared to another contemporary rocket. And by my understanding, the US government at least is paying about as much for Falcon 9…

> ...operational achievement, not an engineering one. How would I distinquish between the two, esp wrt rocketry?

An operational achievement means excellence in building the same vehicle over and over, to the right tolerances, and operating it the same way every time, without fing anything up.

An engineering achievement means excellence in designing a new vehicle, or updating an existing one, or inventing a new procedure, and finding the right tolerances that allow that to be replicated over and over without excess cost.

Re: Starship Flight 7

#566
post #504

Earlier quoted context omitted.

[flagged]

It's just taxpayer money they're blowing up, so it doesn't really matter.

The taxpayer money is for r&d. We should be very tolerant of failure. Aggressively testing with real hardware is a key part of how we learn to make a more robust systems. Fear of failure and waste will slow down progress.

Re: Starship Flight 7

#567
post #199

Earlier quoted context omitted.

A lot of flights seem to be diverting to avoid it... https://bsky.app/profile/flightradar24.com/post/3lfvhpgmqqc2...

Does SpaceX bother with NOTAM for its launches? https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/NOTAM It seems like the flights should have been planned around it so no diversion would be needed.

Actually, this video is a good indication for exactly what transpired:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=w6hIXB62bUE

It's ATC audio captured during the event.

Re: Starship Flight 7

#568
post #477

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Would be unpleasant if there was crew. Of course this thing is pretty far from human eating.

Would be unpleasant if there was crew. 19 people have died in the 391 crewed space missions humans have done so far. The risk of dying is very high. Starship is unlikely to change that, although the commoditization of space flight could have reduce the risk simply by making problems easier to spot because there's more flights.

The higher frequency of launches seems likely to have a big impact on reliability. It's no different than deploying once per day vs once per month. The more you do it, the more edge cases you hit and the more reliable you can make it.

SpaceX also has a simplification streak: the Raptor engines being the canonical example. Lower complexity generally means less unexpected failure modes.

Re: Starship Flight 7

#569

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You test components in isolation, you test integration of components, you run simulations of the entire rocket, and finally you test the rocket launch. You’ll catch issues along the way, but you can’t catch all of them before a full launch test. That’s why there are launch tests.

This is the programmer fallacy if you have a bunch of code passing unit tests, it’s going to work when combined.

Did they say that?

Re: Starship Flight 7

#570
post #559

Earlier quoted context omitted.

R&D for starship has a several-billion-dollar NASA grant. Something like 30-50% of the money being blown up on this program is taxpayer money.

Fair. I think that was for HLS rather than the launch systems, but I guess if it’s already been disbursed, it’s probably all commingled. But that still means it’s not just taxpayer money, it’s mostly theirs. They’ve been raising equity rounds this whole time.

It hasn't been disbursed yet (entirely). They get rewards for certain accomplishments.
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