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Is the world becoming uninsurable?

charleshughsmith.substack.com

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Re: Is the world becoming uninsurable?

#581

Post by noirbot »

Sabinus wrote: post #149
noirbot wrote: post #108

Earlier quoted context omitted.

But isn't the issue that I may have been living in an area for decades and because the government didn't correctly price/deter externalities, now I can't afford to live somewhere? The companies lobbying for the abilities to pollute and otherwise add risk to the world can afford to pay the higher insurance rates. The folks who live in the areas they put at risk often can't. Insurance costs rising are a good signal, bu…

>they're essentially a way to tax normal people for the faults of governments and major companies But it's a great way to deliver the signal that '(Climate) RISK IS INCREASING' directly to the voters. If the government socialises the losses, society won't learn the harsh lessons about our changing world quickly enough.

Maybe, but these subsidies to insurance are the result of voters complaining! The folks they complained to just took the easy way out and instead of annoying powerful entities and forcing them to treat the climate better, they just messed up the insurance market and spread the risk around.

The same people who have the power to fix it always have and they've almost always taken the easy way out. The few times anyone's tried to do real changes on these issues, the other externalities of the changes has usually led to voters rejecting them.

Re: Is the world becoming uninsurable?

#582

Post by _yb2s »

prmoustache wrote: post #568
_yb2s wrote: post #532

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Unreinforced masonry is illegal in most of California and extremely dangerous- every brick becomes a projectile in an earthquake. Despite the news coverage, fires are extremely rare but nearly every home in these areas is guaranteed to face multiple massive earthquakes that would bring down a brick building.

In cusco basin in Peru spanish colons realized their brick made building were falling down at every earthquake. They also realized incas building made of thin walls built on top of large stones that can move relative to each others during an earthquake were resisting much better. They then decided to reuse the foundations of incas buildings and put their brick build constructions on top of it to have earthquake resis…

I don’t know but do they have ~7.9 earthquakes like California? I’ll bet they were not multi story homes with vaulted ceilings, giant glass windows with tons of natural light, and efficient insulation?

Wood is extremely cheap, and extremely earthquake resistant… it is an appropriate material for the area despite a slightly higher fire risk.

Re: Is the world becoming uninsurable?

#583

Post by rsynnott »

tobyhinloopen wrote: post #283

American, living in area prone to natural disasters: "Is the WHOLE WORLD becoming uninsurable?" The answer is obviously "no" since there are other parts of the world that don't live on a hurricane highway nor build houses made from firewood in an area prone to wildfires.

America isn't the only place having an uptick in extreme weather events, though.

Re: Is the world becoming uninsurable?

#584

Post by amluto »

infecto wrote: post #467
tobyhinloopen wrote: post #283

American, living in area prone to natural disasters: "Is the WHOLE WORLD becoming uninsurable?" The answer is obviously "no" since there are other parts of the world that don't live on a hurricane highway nor build houses made from firewood in an area prone to wildfires.

Honest question. Why when people describe wood framed homes do they always phrase it like houses made from "firewood", "sticks", "twigs" etc? It at least for me always detracts from the argument at hand. You could just as easily build a wood framed home with an exterior shell that is fire resistant using modern materials or brick.

It’s not just the exterior material. You also need to screen or eliminate openings that embers can penetrate.

Re: Is the world becoming uninsurable?

#585

Post by tenebrisalietum »

skywhopper wrote: post #546
_yb2s wrote: post #529

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Why would anyone tear down a 20 year old house? Where I live the houses are 80-100 years old and they’re better built and nicer to live in than most newer homes.

You could Google it and find out.

Retire this meme. Google sucks now.

Re: Is the world becoming uninsurable?

#586

Post by ToucanLoucan »

giorgioz wrote: post #541
ToucanLoucan wrote: post #503

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> 1) Not all the world will suffer equally from climate change. The parts that are at higher risk should not be insurable so that new housing will not be built there but somewhere else. So what about the people who already live there...? Like I'm fine telling millionaires their coastal cottages are fucked, but there's a lot more folks out there who've lived in these areas for generations both because they're attached…

I know, is sad :( Tough choices must be made. Like many of our ancestors, we will have to migrate to better places and/or adapt. We'll do all we can to make it work. As personal advice, I will be buying my second home (when I'll be able to afford it) somewhere in a different country/region with different climate (and political) connotations. Avoid having all the eggs in the same basket. I think we should all have 2nd…

I have a very visceral response to people who say things like "tough choices must be made" when it's notable that they will not be making those tough choices, nor will have those tough choices impact them, and will instead be apparently playing musical homes for the best personal outcome.

Like I'm glad your personal wealth is going to let you skate out of the worst effects of climate change (so you think/for now). That is far from a universal experience and "tough choices need to be made" in this context sounds a hell of a lot like euphemistic language for "a lot of poor people are going to die, at least if they're too poor to afford to rent my spare homes."

Re: Is the world becoming uninsurable?

#587

Post by hb-robo »

JKCalhoun wrote: post #96
mgiampapa wrote: post #22

Earlier quoted context omitted.

How about profit caps? I feel like government stepping in and being the insurer with a sufficiently large pool of risk to spread around lets them set a fair rate without the need to make a return or answer to shareholders. To some extent this has helped with health insurance. Each year I get a check back from my insurer saying they didn't spend enough on my care vs my premiums.

Or maybe C-suite pay/benefits caps, ha ha.

I'm all for this, lol.

Re: Is the world becoming uninsurable?

#588

Post by yurishimo »

vasco wrote: post #383
Panzer04 wrote: post #259

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Why bother building a better home when it's cheaper to buy insurance and rebuild later? This is why prices are important - sometimes it's sensible to build cheaper houses without these safeties if the risk isn't there, but if the risk does exist then it needs to be priced right to provide that incentive.

The key thing to understand is that you don't get to choose when the house gets destroyed or get advanced notice. Which means you might be in there, or your kids, or all your belongings. But yes, after you're dead in the rubble someone else can rebuild your house and it might be cheaper.

There’s not much rubble for a house made of wood!

Re: Is the world becoming uninsurable?

#589

Post by twothamendment »

hhjinks wrote: post #510
leguminous wrote: post #432

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> What's the average monthly leccy bill in Phoenix during the summer? $400? The average high temperature in Phoenix in July is 106.5F (41.4C). If you are cooling to 70.0F (21.1C), that's a difference of 36.5F (20.3C). The average January low in Berlin is 28.0F (-2.2C). If you are heating to 65.0F (18.3C), that's a difference of 37.0F (20.5C). I feel like many people living in climates that don't require air condition…

Recently it was -7C where I lived. Even without heating, my indoor temp didn't go below 15C. In regions where cold temperatures are common, isolation and heat retaining materials are very common. Is preventing heat gain as simple as preventing heat loss?

Yes, insulation works both ways. My garage is unheated and insulated. If I go out there to work on something in the winter I always compare the temperature outside. On a sunny day it might be pleasant outside and freezing in my garage - so I'll open the door and let it warm up.

Insulation makes the house more resistance to temperature change (relative to the inside and outside).

One thing people forget is the delta is very different in the summer and winter. Lets say your thermostat is on 70 year round. If it is 100 degrees out you only have to cool 30 degrees. When it is 0 F out you have a delta of 70 degrees. So for this scenario, expect to use more energy in the winter.

Re: Is the world becoming uninsurable?

#590

Post by michaelt »

vasco wrote: post #383
Panzer04 wrote: post #259

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Why bother building a better home when it's cheaper to buy insurance and rebuild later? This is why prices are important - sometimes it's sensible to build cheaper houses without these safeties if the risk isn't there, but if the risk does exist then it needs to be priced right to provide that incentive.

The key thing to understand is that you don't get to choose when the house gets destroyed or get advanced notice. Which means you might be in there, or your kids, or all your belongings. But yes, after you're dead in the rubble someone else can rebuild your house and it might be cheaper.

These wildfires produce surprisingly few deaths.

Did you know the most destructive wildfire in California history, the 2018 Camp Fire, destroyed 19,000 buildings but only caused 85 deaths? [1]

[1] https://oehha.ca.gov/sites/default/files/media/downloads/cli...

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