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Is the world becoming uninsurable?

charleshughsmith.substack.com

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Re: Is the world becoming uninsurable?

#181
post #2

No it isn’t. It’s just unprofitable which means it can be fixed with higher rates.

There are to components, breakeven price for profitability and the price that an or will be paid. If it costs 10 million dollars to replace a house, the insurance will be out reach for most homeowners.

My understanding is that some people are willing to pay, but it's illegal to charge that much.

Re: Is the world becoming uninsurable?

#182
post #51

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Sure. Because the response of a failure in governance is more government? What you are proposing is "unfair". You are essentially suggesting that the rest of the country subsidize a subset who wants to live near high-risk areas. Me too want to live in a dense forest and also have my house by the edge of the river. You could make the argument for this for healthcare, since no one can choose which illness he is born wi…

People choose to smoke, overeat, engage in risky activities that can cause injury near and long term (Rock climbing, riding motorcycles, football, MMA). Why should society pay for these choices?

> People choose to smoke

Cigarettes can be taxed with proceeds going to care with those with lung cancer. Dangerous activities can have a separate insurance. For a popular sport, it means most people are engaging in this activity. Houses on the top of a mountain are for a very tiny minority (and a very rich one too). They should finance their lifestyles themselves.

Re: Is the world becoming uninsurable?

#183
post #23

Earlier quoted context omitted.

There should be a way to build fire resistant buildings to reduce the cost of insuring them, likely this would be the solution in California without price caps. You can build out of concrete and use fire resistant materials like metal or tile for the roof and your house is nearly fireproof. These buildings would be realistically insurable in both California or Florida. They would cost more to build, not THAT much mor…

> You can build out of concrete and use fire resistant materials like metal or tile for the roof and your house is nearly fireproof Just like exactly the rest of the world? We, the non-USA folks, are looking yearly at either fires or hurricanes destroying these wooden houses there and people keep rebuilding them. Insanity.

The US has a practically limitless amount of wood. Europe doesn’t. Wood also holds up well to earthquakes and can be treated to hold up to fire. And if there’s a catastrophic failure, it hurts a lot less than concrete does when it falls on your head. It’s a great material that the US is right to use.

Re: Is the world becoming uninsurable?

#184
post #118

Earlier quoted context omitted.

No one can truly afford to live there, if you price in the cost of insurance. The only reason people live there is because they haven't hit the 1/100 chance yet.

There are plenty of very rich people living there who can afford the house burning down every single year. So false.

Afford doesn't mean you can technically throw money out the window. At some point, you are going to give up if the risk is high enough to have >2 events in your lifetime - time is also a cost to factor in, as well as loss of possessions. It's not quite that simple.

Re: Is the world becoming uninsurable?

#185

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Unfortunately these discussions almost never go well, because it seems that most people have at best a surface level understanding of what insurance is and how it works, and everyone is convinced that it's a full scam and insurance companies are fabricating everything I have the exact same experience when discussing anything insurance related: People have wild assumptions about how much profit insurance companies a…

Health Insurance IS a huge racket. Insurance profits are only a small slice. Executive compensation isn't part of profits. The profits of the required sole source medical supplies company isn't part of insurance profits. The contracts, salaries, benefit packages, overpayments, and waste of healthcare systems and pharmaceutical companies aren't reflected in insurance profits. Just looking at the raw profit percentages…

> There is no legitimate reason for healthcare prices to be so insane.

these profit margins are why some people claim that the US is actually subsidizing the rest of the world's low cost health outcomes.

These companies make money in the US, at high margins, which enables them to operate at low margins in other more regulated countries.

Re: Is the world becoming uninsurable?

#186
post #102

Like we see in California, when the government sets a price ceiling, insurance companies just leave. Same in Florida. If the free market truly was allowed run normally, the insurance rates in Pacific Palisades or on the Florida coast would be so high that no one could afford to live there. Is that a bad thing? If someone was living in a house near where they tested missiles, we'd call them crazy. At what point can we…

Can’t you say that about any part of LA? Once a fire gets going, it grows and can destroy any neighborhood. Call me crazy but if I was the mayor of LA I’d make them invest heavily in PREVENTION. Cameras and drones all over the place in the forests, to nip fires in the bud (and carch arsonists). I would also make sure that the live video footage would be used only for that purpose. It would use AI at the edge to flag…

> Call me crazy but if I was the mayor of LA I’d make them invest heavily in PREVENTION. Cameras and drones all over the place in the forests, to nip fires in the bud (and carch arsonists).

This is a terrible way to deal with fire. The issue isn’t preventing fires from starting at all, because small fires are all over the place. A dropped cigarette can light a city block on fire if the wind is just right. The issue is preventing spread, and taking precautions when conditions (like wind) are conducive to rapid spread.

Re: Is the world becoming uninsurable?

#187

my sadly hot (no pun intended) take is that insurance needs to be let free. price controls on insurance are doubly counterproductive - not only does it result in the companies leaving, it results in those who need the insurance losing their stuff when catastrophe inevitably hits. it’s ok if insurance is expensive - let it result in the insured goods or services having a serious price adjustment. rather than price con…

One thing I am mostly against is nationalized property/casualty insurance. California seems to have taken every opportunity to not properly price risk. My worry is that while extreme, their logic and priorities do not feel unique for government decision making. The last thing I'd want to do is expand it.

When you distort risk pricing, you distort the market, and if you do it hard enough for long enough, you are basically pulling back the slingshot.

While this also applies to mutual insurers, my philosophy is being serious about solvency is the best way to know if you are properly underwriting and pricing. I feel like the government operates too much knowing that they can backstop it either themselves or by imposing an assessment on the market.

You are right that the really big disasters are very correlated events. While not a silver bullet, reinsurance and other risk transfer stuff can help smooth those kind of events out. The good-ish thing with those risks is that while they are uncertain, they are sort of identifiable, known unknowns in Rumsfeld parlance.

I agree with that sentiment, the thing that always seems crazy to me is that California's housing pricing in the face of all these things, but perhaps it's sort of pick your poison. Like I don't want to harp on it, but the only implicit or explicit thing everyone appears to agree on given the decisions that have been made is protecting housing prices above all else. But don't expose people to the ramifications of the housing appreciation (Looking at you, Prop 13).

Re: Is the world becoming uninsurable?

#188
post #170

Earlier quoted context omitted.

"Correctly" is doing a lot of work here. Some readers might miss that this is double edged. Insurance is a mandated product . You don't have a choice if you want a mortgage, or want to run a business. So while it is true that the sustainable price for insurance in many areas is higher than what current regulations allow, let's not forget what happens in an unregulated insurance market; price gouging.

> unregulated insurance market; price gouging. with sufficient competition, it is impossible to price gouge. So if there is supposed price gouging, then there must be insufficient competition. Therefore, the source of the lack of competition would need to be removed (ostensibly, by gov't - such as increasing business loans so that new insurance companies can be started).

Or, you need to be pragmatic, realize that you're not gods and won't create a perfect system that can't be exploited, and instead tackle the issue from multiple angles while revising your approach as the exploiters attack.

Don't let the perfect be the enemy of good enough.

Re: Is the world becoming uninsurable?

#189

I'm not sure I follow this: "why are we subsidizing people to rebuild in places that are clearly no longer habitable" Does/Why would the insurance assume the subsidy is for people rebuilding in the same place? Money is fungible and so it doesn't need to be in the same place, at all. What I'd expect is that insurance for those hard-to-insure places would skyrocket and thus a new balance would be achieved.

You would expect that in a rational market. But go down a reading hole about flood insurance. tl;dr: in many places in the US, the only company that offers flood insurance is the US government because everyone else has pulled out. And people do tend to use the money to rebuild in the same location -- reasons as varied as "I like my beachhouse" to "my entire community was born and lived in this parish and I aint leavi…

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Re: Is the world becoming uninsurable?

#190

Like we see in California, when the government sets a price ceiling, insurance companies just leave. Same in Florida. If the free market truly was allowed run normally, the insurance rates in Pacific Palisades or on the Florida coast would be so high that no one could afford to live there. Is that a bad thing? If someone was living in a house near where they tested missiles, we'd call them crazy. At what point can we…

I've been trying to talk to people locally, a place with lots of homes built in the woodland-urban interface, about the risks of climate change and how insurance will have to change. Unfortunately these discussions almost never go well, because it seems that most people have at best a surface level understanding of what insurance is and how it works, and everyone is convinced that it's a full scam and insurance compa…

> I've been trying to talk to people locally, a place with lots of homes built in the woodland-urban interface, about the risks

Its not just the insurance costs either. My neighbor is an architect who now does planning/consultation with the RFS (rural fire service, australia). Its basically de rigueur for people to try and avoid or evade fire sensitive planning controls. Just the most basic concepts like defensible space, eve guards, or nonflammable finishes, let alone adequate on site water storage or site access. People are intentionally building in bushland because they want to be “in trees”, unless they block the view of course.

Even if they understand the concepts and remember black saturday, or a few years back!, it doesnt apply to them. Theres no concept of personal risk & consequences, and theyre right. They will probably get bailed out by volunteers and socialized losses. Just like new developments along riverine flood ways.

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