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Is the world becoming uninsurable?

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Re: Is the world becoming uninsurable?

#91

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Price caps always seem like such a transparent political move.

How about profit caps? I feel like government stepping in and being the insurer with a sufficiently large pool of risk to spread around lets them set a fair rate without the need to make a return or answer to shareholders. To some extent this has helped with health insurance. Each year I get a check back from my insurer saying they didn't spend enough on my care vs my premiums.

Profit caps presumably create perverse consequences. If the profit I'm allowed to make is proportional to X, then I'm incentivized to maximize X. If X is my costs, then... Maybe that's where these unbelievably high line items on medical bills come from.

Re: Is the world becoming uninsurable?

#92

Earlier quoted context omitted.

As the 173 million strong population of Bangladesh can attest, they can and do live in such places. "Each year, on average, 31,000 square kilometres (12,000 sq mi) (around 21% of the country) is flooded. During severe floods the affected area may exceed two-thirds of the country, as was seen in 1998." https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Floods_in_Bangladesh Most of the world does not want to aspire to be Bangladesh, but hu…

Another example: Japan has many quakes per year and has a strangely high percentage of the world's active volcanos. People have lived there for a very long time, built to accommodate it (both traditionally, using timber and expecting to rebuild often, or with modern earthquake-hardened architecture), and is now a top five economy by GDP. And, well, most of the US is just a hanger-on to California's economy.

> In 2023, California's gross domestic product (GDP) was about $3.9 trillion, comprising 14% of national GDP ($27.7 trillion). Texas and New York are the next largest state economies, at 9% and 8%, respectively.[1]

CA is a huge economy but by no means is the US just CA + 49 other states. Might be fairer to say it’s CA+NY+TX+FL but at that point you’re just aggregating the population.

[1]:https://www.ppic.org/publication/californias-economy/

Re: Is the world becoming uninsurable?

#93

Like we see in California, when the government sets a price ceiling, insurance companies just leave. Same in Florida. If the free market truly was allowed run normally, the insurance rates in Pacific Palisades or on the Florida coast would be so high that no one could afford to live there. Is that a bad thing? If someone was living in a house near where they tested missiles, we'd call them crazy. At what point can we…

> when the government sets a price ceiling, insurance companies just leave…

> the insurance rates in Pacific Palisades or on the Florida coast would be so high that no one could afford to live there…

Seems like the result is the same — people will live there but without insurance.

Re: Is the world becoming uninsurable?

#94

Like we see in California, when the government sets a price ceiling, insurance companies just leave. Same in Florida. If the free market truly was allowed run normally, the insurance rates in Pacific Palisades or on the Florida coast would be so high that no one could afford to live there. Is that a bad thing? If someone was living in a house near where they tested missiles, we'd call them crazy. At what point can we…

> when the government sets a price ceiling, insurance companies just leave… > the insurance rates in Pacific Palisades or on the Florida coast would be so high that no one could afford to live there… Seems like the result is the same — people will live there but without insurance.

worse, you’ll be paying to bail them out in the name of solidarity.

Re: Is the world becoming uninsurable?

#95

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Price caps always seem like such a transparent political move.

How about profit caps? I feel like government stepping in and being the insurer with a sufficiently large pool of risk to spread around lets them set a fair rate without the need to make a return or answer to shareholders. To some extent this has helped with health insurance. Each year I get a check back from my insurer saying they didn't spend enough on my care vs my premiums.

> How about profit caps?

Transfers wealth from shareholders, patients and taxpayers to management, bankers and intermediaries.

Broadly speaking, caps are stupid—akin to treating liver enzymes directly when they spike versus seeing them as the sign of deeper problems.

Re: Is the world becoming uninsurable?

#96

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Price caps always seem like such a transparent political move.

How about profit caps? I feel like government stepping in and being the insurer with a sufficiently large pool of risk to spread around lets them set a fair rate without the need to make a return or answer to shareholders. To some extent this has helped with health insurance. Each year I get a check back from my insurer saying they didn't spend enough on my care vs my premiums.

Or maybe C-suite pay/benefits caps, ha ha.

Re: Is the world becoming uninsurable?

#97

Like we see in California, when the government sets a price ceiling, insurance companies just leave. Same in Florida. If the free market truly was allowed run normally, the insurance rates in Pacific Palisades or on the Florida coast would be so high that no one could afford to live there. Is that a bad thing? If someone was living in a house near where they tested missiles, we'd call them crazy. At what point can we…

Not just the rates are managed, but also deductibles. I'd gladly have a 5 figure deductble to keep my or miums lower, but regulators think this is unfair to some.

Re: Is the world becoming uninsurable?

#98

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Unfortunately these discussions almost never go well, because it seems that most people have at best a surface level understanding of what insurance is and how it works, and everyone is convinced that it's a full scam and insurance companies are fabricating everything I have the exact same experience when discussing anything insurance related: People have wild assumptions about how much profit insurance companies a…

>When you point out that, for example, health insurance profits are low single digit percentage of overall healthcare costs Do you have any source for this? I’m assuming (because HN) that you had the USA in mind, and it doesn’t pass the sniff test for me given that US insurance fees are more than single digit percentages higher than other high quality care countries with privatised healthcare systems

The issue in the US is that there is no price regulation for different procedures (other than Medicare), plus the providers (hospital chains) are intertwined* with insurance. The end result is everyone charges as much as they can and the premiums need to be high, even if insurance technically negotiates the rates down from the “sticker” price. Insurance companies are willing to take a small percent of profit because there is so much money being taken from customers.

* https://www.statnews.com/2024/11/25/unitedhealth-higher-paym...

Re: Is the world becoming uninsurable?

#99

Like we see in California, when the government sets a price ceiling, insurance companies just leave. Same in Florida. If the free market truly was allowed run normally, the insurance rates in Pacific Palisades or on the Florida coast would be so high that no one could afford to live there. Is that a bad thing? If someone was living in a house near where they tested missiles, we'd call them crazy. At what point can we…

Don't worry, the California government is responding to that by making it illegal to stop offering insurance in the state. That will definitely fix the problem.

Re: Is the world becoming uninsurable?

#100

It seems like "severe storms" have increased quite a bit, the other categories not so much. What does "severe storm" mean here? Doesn't seem to mean hurricanes or winter storms. So what gives? Is this just political patronage handed out under the cover of claiming a big storm knocked some trees down?

Ok so the source, https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/billions/time-series/US says, "tornado outbreaks, high wind, hailstorms" So most of this cost is roof damage. Which is an area rife with insurance fraud and getting worse.

Roof damage fraud ... my understanding is the insured has roof damage, takes a payment from the insurance company but does not repair roof, next storm comes along: roof damage again!

Easy enough I think to solve.

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