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Finland's zero homeless strategy (2021)

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481–490 of 660 posts

Re: Finland's zero homeless strategy (2021)

#481

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Ooh, as an American involved lightly in real estate who relocated to Suomi a few years ago I always love this topic. Let me ramble. It's worth pointing out that, on a country-wide level, Finnish housing prices have been remarkably stagnant for the last 20-30 years when compared to e.g. the United States or most other European countries. That is not true of the cities, obviously, and cities are where all the work is,…

> the "middle of nowhere". *"snow-where" That being said, yes Helsinki has been a magnet for employment at least since the Nokia boom years, but its population has ebbed at least once in lulls since then when rental demand cannot meet overpriced supply. Outlying regions do have a big overstock of housing. Even with low rents, I don't think you can keep any even moderately ambitious young person out in the sticks and…

They say that in rural Norway, a new house loses half its value when you turn the key. Some municipalities build houses at a loss to try to attract young families.

Re: Finland's zero homeless strategy (2021)

#482

The US chooses not to end homelessness. We have the highest GDP in the world. We could end it if we wanted to. I was in Japan recently. A choice was made there as well.

Japan has plenty of homeless people but you don't see them because they're staying in cybercafés.

I've seen a bunch just camping out under an overpass just outside of Akihabara station.

Re: Finland's zero homeless strategy (2021)

#483
post #477

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Ooh, as an American involved lightly in real estate who relocated to Suomi a few years ago I always love this topic. Let me ramble. It's worth pointing out that, on a country-wide level, Finnish housing prices have been remarkably stagnant for the last 20-30 years when compared to e.g. the United States or most other European countries. That is not true of the cities, obviously, and cities are where all the work is,…

>"One interesting mechanism which might help curb that oversupply in the coming decades is the 15% inheritance tax" Housing is one of the areas I do not see any problems with oversupply.

Pushing and pulling water/sewer/gas/trash/food/electricity/fiber/police/ambulances/healthcare long distances is not cheap.

Typically, “housing” implies those amenities nearby. Obviously, a little bit extra doesn’t hurt, but building out and maintaining infrastructure is not cheap.

I imagine the calculations get even tougher when 50 year projections are for smaller populations.

Re: Finland's zero homeless strategy (2021)

#484

Earlier quoted context omitted.

There are 10 million empty homes [0] and ~700,000 homeless. No matter how you slice those numbers you still have more empty housing stock than homeless right now. [0]: https://www.census.gov/housing/hvs/files/currenthvspress.pdf (page 4)

What does that mean for the next steps? Does the government eminent domain the houses, arrest the homeless, and then ship them out to Detroit or wherever the surplus houses are?

Housing as infrastructure, like roads and electricity.

We will exit an era where housing prices always rise, because both taxes and insurance will become unaffordable. I see a combination of publicly managed apartments (like Germany or Austria) with a much smaller private market for houses. The end-game is housing managed like infrastructure, with most of it publicly managed but a few privately managed/owned houses for unique or highly desirable spaces.

There is also a crisis in affordability of apartments, with a report [0] showing a collapse in lower-cost apartments that is partially driving homelessness. It is especially hard for fixed-income folks.

> arrest the homeless

Most homeless are working homeless. They crash with friends and family, or they live in their cars/trailers. Others are pushed to the periphery or out of their job market entirely; San Fransisco's struggle for service workers is a reflection of this trend, but it's hardly unique to the Bay Area. We need workers for just about everything, and those workers need a place to stay.

While this won't solve street-level homelessness, right now most homeless programs cannot move recovering people into permanent housing due to affordability and shortages. There are long waitlists right now for Housing and Urban Development subsidized housing because of the shortages. There are camp grounds or shelters, but those are only temporary. Having more stock available also means these homeless programs can provide much needed stability for recovering people and get them away from places/people that might cause them to relapse.

> Does the government eminent domain the houses

I see a collapse in house prices, and that might cause private equity to dump a bunch of housing stock into the market. To prevent a total collapse government would step in and be a buyer-of-last-resort, which will kickstart the publicly managed housing initiative. Another is insurance, where private insurers step away leaving governments to either rebuild after disaster or face a new homeless crisis. There's also banks holding a lot of mortgage paper that can go underwater forcing another intervention.

I see plenty of cases of market dysfunction that requires government to step in without explicitly eminent domain, which is why I see housing-as-infrastructure becoming the 21st century solution.

[0]: https://www.jchs.harvard.edu/press-releases/new-report-shows...

Re: Finland's zero homeless strategy (2021)

#485

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Its not a single thing In San Francisco studies of their populations revealed lots of segments of homeless people The one that stuck out to me the most was the most distressing: people that were homeless within last 12 months of the study, a huge percent of them were just people that left a relationship. That was a housing price problem. I knew so many people that had broken up but still living together, and its craz…

I always wondered if housing affordability was the real reason for falling divorce rates.

If it was, it would be a tiny causal factor compared to the obvious one, lower marriage rates. Have to be married first to get divorced.

https://ourworldindata.org/marriages-and-divorces

Re: Finland's zero homeless strategy (2021)

#486

Earlier quoted context omitted.

do people really believe this claim up front? providing active junkies: 1) completely free units to destroy 2) 24/7 emergency care teams 3) completely free healthcare and mental healthcare 4) no sobriety expectations of any sort 5) no possibility to be kicked out of the program for any reason is going to be cheaper than putting them in jail or an institution? wow sounds almost too good to be true it would be interest…

I think perhaps your biases are showing in the language you deploy (junkeis, free to destroy). You're asking for evidence that's readily available, if you want it, from studies to meta studies. The evidence ranges from conclusive to inconclusive, which isn't surprising given the many different types of implementation and existence of support ystems (or lack thereof). In terms of cost, we need to look at the total soc…

>marginal decrease in for example medical expenses

why would there be a decrease rather than an increase? they're linked up with a full time care team as well as paths for more healthcare services. they also are allowed to continue to destroy their body with drugs. a local newspaper just ran an article here about how many health problems they have when they get into the local program.

yes i am very bias about the topic, and it wouldnt matter to me if it were much cheaper. but it truly doesnt sound plausible. i do not think setting up society so that people can comfortably get high all day, for free, at everyone else's expense, is a good or fair setup. there are many people struggling to stay afloat. maybe we could focus on solving that first. or focusing on the sober homeless.

Re: Finland's zero homeless strategy (2021)

#487

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Sleeping rough has always been rare in Finland for the simple reason that it gets down to -20 quite often in winter. Freezing to death is not an uncommon fate for alcoholics.

There’s a reason why you have lower homeless population in the temperate zone than in the tropical zone of the world.

Temperate usually means “mild”, or easily survivable.

If using the technical term, I think you might mean “Continental climate”.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Temperate_climate

Re: Finland's zero homeless strategy (2021)

#488
post #145

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I'm happy to read evidence I'm wrong (I want to be wrong - it would make me much more optimistic about a fix), but my own life and everything I've read suggests the opposite - once someone develops a serious drug or alcohol addiction it leads to them destroying everything good in their lives and inevitably they either sober up or end up homeless. Nearly all of the people who stay homeless in the long term have some s…

Most addicts end up recovering

Addicts of what? Surely, there are different recovery rates for different drug addictions.

Re: Finland's zero homeless strategy (2021)

#489

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I think quantity is a valid concern but I also think treating housing as a speculative asset is an issue. Housing serves as a valuable speculative asset precisely because quantity is restricted by a variety of factors, but actually using it as a speculative asset raises prices significantly.

Just saying "speculation" doesn't really paint the picture of what's going on. In 2010-s everyone here blamed foreign speculators hiding in the shadows, but we live in a different, worse, world now. This country's housing and immigration & temp. resident policies are absolutely out of sync, intentionally. In 2021 they've changed the rules to add hundreds of thousands of people overnight, but did not build anywhere cl…

> the next government plans to continue doing it

Asking as someone not that familiar with Canadian politics, is this "the next government" as in the Liberal one that would replace Trudeau after his resignation, or the (likely) Conservative one that would be in power after the general election?

Re: Finland's zero homeless strategy (2021)

#490
post #465

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Ooh, as an American involved lightly in real estate who relocated to Suomi a few years ago I always love this topic. Let me ramble. It's worth pointing out that, on a country-wide level, Finnish housing prices have been remarkably stagnant for the last 20-30 years when compared to e.g. the United States or most other European countries. That is not true of the cities, obviously, and cities are where all the work is,…

A lot of that probably applies to the US as well. There's no shortage of relatively inexpensive housing but a lot of people just don't want to live in those places for a variety of reasons. Ask a lot of the people here: it's cold and snows, it's not welcoming to people like me, there aren't a lot of good local jobs, there's a lot of crime...

> there's a lot of crime

This is maybe the biggest difference between America and other developed countries when it comes to this subject. You'll find that a fifth-percentile priced home in Spain, Korea, or Australia will be in a rural area with not a lot of economic prospects, but in the US you'll have the additional burden of finding a meth lab next door or being a homicide victim.

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