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LA wildfires force thousands to evacuate, NASA JPL closed

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Re: LA wildfires force thousands to evacuate, NASA JPL closed

#671

Post by Ancalagon »

scarab92 wrote: post #642
gonzo41 wrote: post #122

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You need to do fuel reduction burns during winter (when it's wet) so you can reduce the load. They do this near my house in Australia every few years, it's somewhat terrifying to have a slow roll bushfire roll around the house, but it can be managed with care.

Perhaps worth mentioning that Australia is doing less fuel reduction burns than in the past, especially near major urban centres with unfavourably wide directions. Fuel reduction burning often requires blanketing millions of people with carcinogenic smoke for several weeks each year. The greater good is to protect everyone’s lungs and accept that every few years we’ll have to rebuild a few homes.

That makes no sense. A controlled burn shouldn't be as large as an out of control wildfire. For the cost of those burned down homes the government could hand out n95 masks by the basket-full. Not to mention you'll still have the smoke inhalation problem when you have those wildfire cases anyways - and in those scenarios you can't control what is being release in the burn.

Re: LA wildfires force thousands to evacuate, NASA JPL closed

#672

Post by trhway »

esalman wrote: post #417
JumpCrisscross wrote: post #41

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I think they’re talking about dousing when it first lights. That isn’t “a dumb person’s idea.” But it is presently beyond our capabilities, to say nothing of the huge privacy problem it would entail.

The reason I said it is a dumb idea is because OP has no idea about the current weather conditions. If the conditions are right, such as tonight when the Santa Ana winds have died down, you don't need fancy drones because firefighters are capable of doing things like this- https://x.com/ArtCandee/status/1877210056493539499

read my other comment to understand why the current retrofitted water-tankers can't be used in high winds while intentionally built drones would still work in much higher winds.

https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=42643189

Re: LA wildfires force thousands to evacuate, NASA JPL closed

#673

Post by dragonwriter »

Jtsummers wrote: post #64
JumpCrisscross wrote: post #57

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> it wouldn't really entail a huge privacy problem unless you show up on IR sensors as well as a fire If you’re hoping to do better than sighting a smoke column, you will absolutely have to be. We’re not at a loss of detecting entire houses burning.

To violate your privacy an IR sensor would have to be able to pick out people (98 degrees Fahrenheit, approx.) and put them on a map. Versus a sensor tuned to an actual fire which is substantially hotter and larger.

> To violate your privacy an IR sensor would have to be able to pick out people (98 degrees Fahrenheit, approx.) and put them on a map.

People aren't the only (or largest hotter-than-background, and maybe not hottest-human-sized) thing on your property that a privacy-violating IR sensor drone might want to detect.

> Versus a sensor tuned to an actual fire which is substantially hotter and larger.

If you want an early-detection sensor for fires, they'll be substantially hotter but not substantially larger than an adult human.

Re: LA wildfires force thousands to evacuate, NASA JPL closed

#674

Post by telotortium »

xyzzyz wrote: post #531
Terr_ wrote: post #399

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> It's not like suburbs aren't sitting on financial bombs either. Reminds me of a video (part of series), titled "Why American Cities Are Broke - The Growth Ponzi Scheme". Previous HN submission and discussion: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=32495647 TLDR: Suburban and certain commercial development is money-loser because tax-revenue is way under the long-term costs of the infrastructure to support it, and alre…

This is just false, and a quick look at any municipal budget is enough to confirm it. Infrastructure costs are small fraction of spend of any municipality. It’s typically under 10%. Making infra spend twice aa efficient will only increase ability to spend by 5%, which is equivalent to two years of revenue growth. The growth Ponzi scheme people say that it’s all deferred maintenance and in long term it will collapse,…

My impression has been that Strong Towns' analysis of the growth Ponzi scheme was correct, or at least not obviously incorrect, in its original context, which was watching small towns far away from large cities become hollowed out by people moving outside the city limits into unincorporated land. If you actually look at the examples on the original Strong Towns' site, you will see that they're largely not suburbs or even exurbs of major cities.

But both that site and its readers have tried to apply that conclusion to suburbs of major cities, which is ludicrously wrong to anyone that actually knows anything about the causes of municipal bankruptcy (almost always due to pension obligations , and often in a vicious cycle with high taxes raised to pay for pensions that drive away residents).

Re: LA wildfires force thousands to evacuate, NASA JPL closed

#675

Post by solatic »

mulmen wrote: post #609
s1artibartfast wrote: post #583

Earlier quoted context omitted.

how so?

The desire to escape is strong in prison when the decision to fight fires is made. The self preservation instinct doesn’t kick in until the danger becomes real at which point it is too late. This difference in perception is what prison labor exploits in prisoners.

Wouldn't prisoners come back from the firefighting, regret having made the decision, and tell other prisoners that they were afraid for their lives and they shouldn't volunteer; that they wouldn't be volunteering again? Wouldn't this persuade people not to volunteer, and it wouldn't be seen as desirable?

Your argument is a fine hypothesis, but I think it falls apart in the data.

Re: LA wildfires force thousands to evacuate, NASA JPL closed

#676

Post by eesmith »

lend000 wrote: post #669
eesmith wrote: post #652

Earlier quoted context omitted.

There is no potential with CO2. Have you worked out how much CO2 would be needed? How to prevent mixing with air? How it will be stored and deployed? How many people might die should there be a container breach? The first two seem mind-boggling. "Strategic barriers to the spread of the fire" are called firebreaks. As https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Firebreak points out: > ... it is still sometimes possible for fire to…

CO2 is already used in many fire extinguishers, especially in industrial settings for class B and C fires. And we trust the average person with huge containers of explosive propane. More is possible than you think, but obviously it comes with a lot of caveats because of the danger potential. But as a professional firefighting tool, "no potential" is a pessimistic take IMO. Fire roads are often used as firebreaks, and…

You have no clue what you are talking about.

For one, industrial settings are usually enclosed, and those extinguishers are for point sources. https://docs.johnsoncontrols.com/specialhazards/api/khub/doc... says 100 lbs of high pressure CO2, plus the take, weighs 331 lbs. If I did my PV=nRT right, that's about 25 cubic meters of CO2. Enough for a good sized room. Not enough for a good-sized tree.

For volume, people install suppressant systems, like the old-school halon systems.

And again, you've got strong winds mixing the CO2 with air. It doesn't just sit there.

Regarding propane containers, propane tanks are very safe. It is hard to make them explode. https://www.levco.io/blog/2022/march/can-a-propane-tank-expl... say house propane tank explosions are rare (I assume that's what you mean by "huge container"), and generally require being in continuous flame, as when the house is on fire, causing a Boiling Liquid Expanding Vapor Explosion.

> and smother the fire attempting to cross the ridge

If 'hot embers managed to cross the Lewis Canyon, a natural canyon up to a mile wide and 600 feet (180 m) deep' then why do you think a small valley full of CO2 is enough?

Valleys aren't basins. CO2 will quickly exit the valley.

> Curious if you believe the current state of the art cannot be improved upon.

Unlike you, I have no reason to doubt that the state of the art has been ever-improving since the 1960s.

> I wondered if modern materials science was up to the task

If 120 feet of asphalt isn't enough, I don't see why a thin tarp placed on top of signs, trees, bushes, cars, power poles, etc, and with nothing to weigh it down against 80+ mph winds, should be any better.

FWIW, emergency fire shelters exist (for "shake and bake" burnovers). They weigh a few of pounds, for one person. They last for tens of seconds to a minute or so, depending on the fire intensity. https://www.firehouse.com/home/news/11280543/fire-shelters-l... says "The current price of a federally approved fire shelter is nearly $335." That gives you some idea for what the state of materials tech is, and tells me you didn't do much research.

You say you are spitballing, but you started by saying that after research you were 'underwhelmed by the lack of advancements in actually putting out an aggressive fire'.

It sounds more like you are spitting on the last 50 years of firefighters due to personal belief that your ideas are somehow gems in the rough.

Re: LA wildfires force thousands to evacuate, NASA JPL closed

#677

Post by camgunz »

jandrewrogers wrote: post #670
camgunz wrote: post #663

Earlier quoted context omitted.

(Sorry on phone) California famously also has earthquakes. You can't look at the USGS risk map and seriously say the risk between living in Missouri/Oklahoma and California is equivalent. Also I didn't include PNW states in the safe list. Also the NMSZ had only one >= 5.0 earthquake (5.4) in the entire 20th century. Also earthquake deaths are only around half wildfire deaths, and I'd guess the distance between them w…

Pacific Northwest earthquake codes are based on earthquakes that last happened more than 300 years ago. The New Madrid Seismic Zone has had multiple earthquakes more powerful than any in the Pacific Northwest during those intervening centuries. Missouri could realistically experience a M8.0 earthquake tomorrow, just like Washington. That the NMSZ was relatively quiescent during the 20th century tells you little about…

OK, I think I know what happened here. I was trying to say, "hey, earthquakes aren't great, but it's not like they happen every year (multiple times a year even!), unlike wildfires." Then it seemed like I was cherry picking lists and not using a wide enough window. I understand that; definitely not trying to do that. Great, let's continue.

I feel like everything you've brought up has to be factored into the USGS seismic risk map. But in case it's not, I searched the USGS earthquake database. Of the 1425 >= 5.0 earthquakes in the coterminous US since 1700, 12 of them occurred in the NMSZ (only 7 of which were >= 6.0). In the same amount of time, hundreds occurred in California (the USGS search is rectangular and I can't be arsed to separate out Nevada). There simply is no equivalence. If earthquakes are really a concern, definitely don't live in California! And if wildfires are a concern, also definitely don't live in California!

California/Nevada earthquakes: https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/map/?extent=28.32372...

NMSZ earthquakes: https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/map/?extent=28.26568...

Re: LA wildfires force thousands to evacuate, NASA JPL closed

#678

Post by baggy_trough »

sahila wrote: post #432
baggy_trough wrote: post #196

Earlier quoted context omitted.

"fair share" is always defined as more than they pay now, I've noticed.

Is your opinion that extremely wealthy don't try to reduce their tax share as much as possible, either through clever accounting on their current year taxes or by influencing politicians/policies to lower their taxes directly? Why do most middle class earners pay more than their millionaire and billionaire counterparts as a percentage? Sure you might say W2 tax rate is higher than capital gains, but why is that the c…

Of course they do, same as everyone else.

The rich pay the vast majority of taxes and get next to nothing for it.

Re: LA wildfires force thousands to evacuate, NASA JPL closed

#679

Post by kristjansson »

trhway wrote: post #616
kristjansson wrote: post #586

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I think I (and maybe others) understood 'drone' to mean something closer to quad-copters. Sounds like you're actually proposing something closer to water-filled cruise missiles? Which actually seems like a compelling idea. I'd guess there are some questions around how to make the vehicle recoverable/reusable, or else how to avoid causing more fire than you're putting out when the vehicle splatters against terrain, an…

>I think I (and maybe others) understood 'drone' to mean something closer to quad-copters. Sounds like you're actually proposing something closer to water-filled cruise missiles? as i said in original post - "not small quadcopters, more like WWII size bombers". I use V1 as a close and real existing example of a drone wrt. size and simplicity/cheapness of construction. Though i think 2x-4x of that size would be more s…

> just

the most dangerous word in software engineering

Re: LA wildfires force thousands to evacuate, NASA JPL closed

#680

Post by trhway »

kristjansson wrote: post #679
trhway wrote: post #616

Earlier quoted context omitted.

>I think I (and maybe others) understood 'drone' to mean something closer to quad-copters. Sounds like you're actually proposing something closer to water-filled cruise missiles? as i said in original post - "not small quadcopters, more like WWII size bombers". I use V1 as a close and real existing example of a drone wrt. size and simplicity/cheapness of construction. Though i think 2x-4x of that size would be more s…

> just the most dangerous word in software engineering

it works fine for Ukraine sending drones to the targets 1000 km away (commercial large drones bought from China). And their task is more complex like for example they have to care about flying low to avoid air-defense for example, etc.
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