Earlier quoted context omitted.
I guess hope can be false now.
> guess hope can be false now "Hope is false if it is based on ignorance of the correct assessment of the probability that a desire is fulfilled or on ignorance with regard to the desirability of the object of desire. Hope is justified—realistic—when the hoping person knows and accepts experts’ judgement about the probability of hope fulfillment. However, I argued, what matters for evaluating a person’s hope is not o…
Experts can give a mostly-frequentist analysis based on past medical cases.
The unknown part is whether those cases apply to yours.
And nobody knows.
All the so-called probability is meaningless. It matters not whether your chances of remission is "99%" or "1%". Those numbers are meaningless in a specific case under a specific situation.
I understand this is not the commonly understood notion of probability, but the common notion is simply wrong.
I'm not saying experts are wrong, I'm happy to assume that their analyses are quite correct when applied to a population. I'm just saying the common way of interpreting their statistics onto one specific case (the one you care about) is wrong, because you can't just plug the probability onto a single person/case and round it off to zero or one.