Hacker News Board Hacker News, browsed like a classic message board
Live data from Hacker News

Predictions Scorecard, 2025 January 01

rodneybrooks.com

Post reply on HN
Print view View original

31–40 of 190 posts

Re: Predictions Scorecard, 2025 January 01

#31

Post by ivanbalepin »

AlotOfReading wrote: post #28
Denzel wrote: post #21

Earlier quoted context omitted.

In what sense is self-driving “here” if the economics alone prove that it can’t get “here”? It’s not just limited coverage, it’s practically non-existent coverage, both nationally and globally, with no evidence that the system can generalize, profitably, outside the limited areas it’s currently in.

It's covering significant areas of 3 major metros, and the core of one minor, with testing deployments in several other major metros. Considering the top 10 metros are >70% of the US ridehail market, that seems like a long way beyond "non-existent" coverage nationally.

Speaking for one of those metro areas I'm familiar with: maybe in SF city limits specifically (where they still are half the Uber's share), but that's 10% of the population of the Bay Area metro. I'm very much looking forward to the day when I can take a robo cab from where I live near Google to the airport - preferably, much cheaper than today's absurd Uber rates - but today it's just not present in the lives of about 95+% of Bay Area residents.

Re: Predictions Scorecard, 2025 January 01

#33

Post by ynniv »

anon7000 wrote: post #30
ynniv wrote: post #25

It's long, so I'm skimming a little and... flying cars. If you don't know why we don't have flying cars, you're not a good engineer. It really doesn't matter what prestigious lab you ran, as that apparently didn't impart the ability to think critically about engineering problems. [Hint: Flying takes 10x the energy of driving, and the cost/weight/volume of 1 MJ hasn't changed in close to a hundred years. Flying cars r…

The article is not optimistic on flying cars. The prediction is that an expensive flying car could be purchased no earlier than 2036, and notes a strong possibility that it won’t even happen by 2050. Plus states that minor success (aka 0.1% of car sales are flying cars) isn’t going to happen in his lifetime. The author also expands on this: > Don’t hold your breath. They are not here. They are not coming soon. > Noth…

Engineering is about focusing on what matters. There's no point in talking about flying cars: they will exist when portable fusion exists, so just talk about that.

Re: Predictions Scorecard, 2025 January 01

#35

Post by AlotOfReading »

ivanbalepin wrote: post #31
AlotOfReading wrote: post #28

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It's covering significant areas of 3 major metros, and the core of one minor, with testing deployments in several other major metros. Considering the top 10 metros are >70% of the US ridehail market, that seems like a long way beyond "non-existent" coverage nationally.

Speaking for one of those metro areas I'm familiar with: maybe in SF city limits specifically (where they still are half the Uber's share), but that's 10% of the population of the Bay Area metro. I'm very much looking forward to the day when I can take a robo cab from where I live near Google to the airport - preferably, much cheaper than today's absurd Uber rates - but today it's just not present in the lives of abo…

Waymo's current operational area in the bay runs from Sunnyvale to fisherman's wharf. I don't know how many people that is, but I'm pretty comfortable calling it a big chunk of the bay.

They don't run to SFO because SF hasn't approved them for airport service.

Re: Predictions Scorecard, 2025 January 01

#36

Post by jdminhbg »

mvdtnz wrote: post #27
sashank_1509 wrote: post #11

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Human interventions are some non zero number in current self driving cars and will likely be that way for a while. Does this mean self driving is a scam and in fact it is just a human driving, and that these are actually ADAS. Maybe in some pedantic sense, you are right but then your definition is not useful, since it lumps cruise control/ lane-keeping ADAS and Waymo’s in the same category. Waymo is genuinely, qualit…

No one said scam (although in the case of Tesla it absolutely is). It's just not a solved problem yet.

> It's just not a solved problem yet.

Human driving isn't a solved problem either; the difference is that when a human driver needs intervention it just crashes.

Re: Predictions Scorecard, 2025 January 01

#37

Post by Teever »

Animats wrote: post #22
brcmthrowaway wrote: post #17

Earlier quoted context omitted.

What is the silver bullet for battery tech?

Solid state batteries. Prototypes work, but high-volume manufacturing doesn't work yet. The major battery manufacturers are all trying to get this to production. Early versions will probably be expensive. Maybe a 2x improvement in kwh/kg. Much less risk of fire or thermal runaway. Charging in < 10 mins.

The one thing I'm curious about with solid state batteries is if there's a path towards incremental improvements in power density like we've seen with lithium batteries?

It would be unfortunate if we get solid state batteries that have the great features that you describe but they're limited to 2x or so power density. Twice the power density opens a lot of doors for technology improvements and innovation but it's still limiting for really cool things like humanoid robotics and large scale battery powered aircraft.

Re: Predictions Scorecard, 2025 January 01

#38

Post by YetAnotherNick »

Denzel wrote: post #21
laweijfmvo wrote: post #14

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Waymo is the best driver I’ve ridden with. Yes it has limited coverage. Maybe humans are intervening, but unless someone can prove that humans are intervening multiple times per ride, “self driving” is here, IMO, as of 2024.

In what sense is self-driving “here” if the economics alone prove that it can’t get “here”? It’s not just limited coverage, it’s practically non-existent coverage, both nationally and globally, with no evidence that the system can generalize, profitably, outside the limited areas it’s currently in.

Here in the product/research sense, which is the hardest bar to cross. Making it cheaper takes time but generally we have reduced cost of everything by orders of magnitude when manufacturing ramps up, and I don't think self driving hardware(sensors etc) would be any different.

Re: Predictions Scorecard, 2025 January 01

#39

Post by kccqzy »

AlotOfReading wrote: post #35
ivanbalepin wrote: post #31

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Speaking for one of those metro areas I'm familiar with: maybe in SF city limits specifically (where they still are half the Uber's share), but that's 10% of the population of the Bay Area metro. I'm very much looking forward to the day when I can take a robo cab from where I live near Google to the airport - preferably, much cheaper than today's absurd Uber rates - but today it's just not present in the lives of abo…

Waymo's current operational area in the bay runs from Sunnyvale to fisherman's wharf. I don't know how many people that is, but I'm pretty comfortable calling it a big chunk of the bay. They don't run to SFO because SF hasn't approved them for airport service.

I just opened the Waymo app and its service certainly doesn't extend to Sunnyvale. I just recently had an experience where I got a Waymo to drive me to a Caltrain station so I can actually get to Sunnyvale.

Re: Predictions Scorecard, 2025 January 01

#40

Post by AlotOfReading »

kccqzy wrote: post #39
AlotOfReading wrote: post #35

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Waymo's current operational area in the bay runs from Sunnyvale to fisherman's wharf. I don't know how many people that is, but I'm pretty comfortable calling it a big chunk of the bay. They don't run to SFO because SF hasn't approved them for airport service.

I just opened the Waymo app and its service certainly doesn't extend to Sunnyvale. I just recently had an experience where I got a Waymo to drive me to a Caltrain station so I can actually get to Sunnyvale.

The public area is SF to Daly City. The employee-only area runs down the rest of the peninsula. Both of them together are the operational area.

Waymo's app only shows the areas accessible to you. Different users can have different accessible areas, though in the Bay area it's currently just the two divisions I'm aware of.

Post reply on HN