Bird Flu Risk Dashboard Using Prediction Markets (Current Risk "Low Chance")
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Re: Bird Flu Risk Dashboard Using Prediction Markets (Current Risk "Low Chance")
#2Happy to answer questions as to the sources used (Kalshi and Metaculus) and the conditional probabilities assigned:
- P(bird flu as bad as covid | 10,000 US cases) = .5
- P(bird flu as bad as covid | CDC travel advisory) = .1
Re: Bird Flu Risk Dashboard Using Prediction Markets (Current Risk "Low Chance")
#3Seems too narrow to be a website.
Maybe a site where you get overviews like this... to a prompt.
"Make me a dashboard on the current Moon race. And one on Taiwan invsaion. And one on AGI timelines."
"Yes, send me an email if there's a major shift in any of them"
Re: Bird Flu Risk Dashboard Using Prediction Markets (Current Risk "Low Chance")
#4Seems too narrow to be a website. Maybe a site where you get overviews like this... to a prompt. "Make me a dashboard on the current Moon race. And one on Taiwan invsaion. And one on AGI timelines." "Yes, send me an email if there's a major shift in any of them"
actually, a more practical idea would just be a generic "pandemic risk" site.
Re: Bird Flu Risk Dashboard Using Prediction Markets (Current Risk "Low Chance")
#5Seems too narrow to be a website. Maybe a site where you get overviews like this... to a prompt. "Make me a dashboard on the current Moon race. And one on Taiwan invsaion. And one on AGI timelines." "Yes, send me an email if there's a major shift in any of them"
If there is interest here I may add other streams. Would you sign up to such a site?