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Things we learned about LLMs in 2024

simonwillison.net

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Re: Things we learned about LLMs in 2024

#601

Post by CRConrad »

FooBarWidget wrote: post #257
antirez wrote: post #54

About "people still thinking LLMs are quite useless", I still believe that the problem is that most people are exposed to ChatGPT 4o that at this point for my use case (programming / design partner) is basically a useless toy. And I guess that in tech many folks try LLMs for the same use cases. Try Claude Sonnet 3.5 (not Haiku!) and tell me if, while still flawed, is not helpful. But there is more: a key thing with L…

Why do people have such narrow views on what makes LLMs useful? I use them for basically everything. My son throwing an irrational tantrum at the amusement park and I can't figure out why he's like that (he won't tell me or he doesn't know himself either) or what I should do? I feed Claude all the facts of what happened that day and ask for advice. Even if I don't agree with the advice, at the very least the analysis…

Scary. Reads rather like you're well on your way to replace basic life skills with reliance on LLMs.

Re: Things we learned about LLMs in 2024

#602

Post by CRConrad »

FooBarWidget wrote: post #271
krapp wrote: post #259

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Yes people have lives outside of coding, but most people are able to manage without having AI software intercede in as much of their lives as possible. It seems like you trust AI more than people and prefer it to direct human interaction. That seems to be satisfying a need for you that most people don't have.

When I'm done working, chased my children to properly finish their dinner, helped my son with homework, and putting them to bed, it's already 9+ PM — the only time of the day when I have free time. Just which human besides my wife can I talk to at that point? What if she doesn't have a clue either? All the professionals are only open when I'm working. A lot of the issues happen during the weekend, when professionals…

> LLMs are infinitely patient, don't think I am dumb for asking certain things

We don't know that. They could be laughing their ass off at you without telling you.

Re: Things we learned about LLMs in 2024

#603

Post by CRConrad »

Obscurity4340 wrote: post #401
lumost wrote: post #214

Earlier quoted context omitted.

When I started my career in 2010, google was a semi-serious skill. All of the little things that we know how to do now such as ignoring certain sites, lingering on others, and iteratively refining our search queries were not universally known at the time. Experienced engineers often relied on encyclopedic knowledge of their environment or by "reading the manual". In my experience, LLM tools are the same, you ask for…

Googlefu is how its usually called. It would be fantastic if there was a general course to teach it

Not "would be", but "would have been", past tense: Once upon a time it may have been valuable, but since Google deliberately ruined its search engine, it's of no use any more.

Re: Things we learned about LLMs in 2024

#604

Post by zestyping »

olivermuty wrote: post #562
zkry wrote: post #478

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I'm pretty sure most people, developers especially, have had magical, life-changing experiences with LLMs. I think the problem is that they can't cant do these things reliably. I get this sentiment from a lot of AI startups, that they have a product which can do amazing things, but due to its failure modes makes it almost useless as, to use an analogy from self-driving cars, the users have to still constantly pay att…

I mean… I agree that LLMs give only superficial value, but your analogy is plain wrong. I drove 3600 km Norway to Spain in 2018 with only adaptive cruise. Then again in 2023 with autonomous highway driving (the kind where you keep a hand on the wheel for failure mode) and it was amaaaazing how big the difference was.

Wait, can you say more about that? That doesn't match my intuitions very well, so I'd like to understand what made it such a big difference to you.

Were you using Tesla Autopilot? If I were using Autopilot, I'd have to be constantly watching out for its mistakes, which would probably be equally or more stressful compared to using adaptive cruise.

Re: Things we learned about LLMs in 2024

#605

Post by CRConrad »

ec109685 wrote: post #323
shihab wrote: post #20

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The last OpenAI valuation I read about was 157 billion. I am struggling to understand what justifies this. To me, it feels like OpenAI is at best few months ahead of competitors in some areas. But even if I am underestimating the advantage, it's few years instead of few months, why does it matter? It's not like AI companies are going to enjoy the first-mover advantage internet giants had over the competition.

OpenAI is becoming synonymous with consumer AI. It has potential of disrupting Google’s cash cow, which explains at least a chunk of the valuation. OpenAI predicts more revenue from ChatGPT than api access through 2029. It’s the old Netflix / HBO trope of which can become the other first: hbo figure out streaming or Netflix figure out original programming. I bet Google will figure this out and thus OpenAI won’t disru…

> It’s the old Netflix / HBO trope of which can become the other first: hbo figure out streaming or Netflix figure out original programming.

Tangential: So how is that race going, has either taken a commanding lead? (Or, hey, is it over already; has either of them won and the other lost? (Yeah, guess if I'm very well-infomed on that industry or not...))

Re: Things we learned about LLMs in 2024

#606

Post by CRConrad »

mjburgess wrote: post #53
neom wrote: post #13

"learned out about" - is that an Australian phraseology by chance? Sounds Australian or British of some manner.

Good ear -- the use of 'out' as an abbreviation of anything is a britishism. Nowt, owt, -- nothing, anything

Naught, aught.

Re: Things we learned about LLMs in 2024

#607

Post by CRConrad »

Der_Einzige wrote: post #41
vunderba wrote: post #11

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I agree, but I think my biggest issue with LLMs (and a lot of GenAI) is that they act as a massive accelerator for the WORST (and unfortunately most common) type of human - the lazy one. The signal-to-noise ratio just goes completely out of control. https://journal.everypixel.com/ai-image-statistics

Sorry but the "lazy is bad" crowd is ludditism in another form, and it's telling that a whole lot of very smart people were passionate defenders of being lazy! https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Human_Use_of_Human_Beings https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Inventing_the_Future:_Postcapi... https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Right_to_Be_Lazy https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/In_Praise_of_Idleness_and_Othe... (That's Bertrand Russ…

> the "lazy is bad" crowd is ludditism in another form

Capital --> capitalist, capitalism.

Commune --> communist, communism.

Ned Ludd --> Luddite, Luddism.

Not "capitalistism" or "communistism", so not "ludditism" either.

Re: Things we learned about LLMs in 2024

#608

Post by fragmede »

CRConrad wrote: post #607
Der_Einzige wrote: post #41

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Sorry but the "lazy is bad" crowd is ludditism in another form, and it's telling that a whole lot of very smart people were passionate defenders of being lazy! https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Human_Use_of_Human_Beings https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Inventing_the_Future:_Postcapi... https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Right_to_Be_Lazy https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/In_Praise_of_Idleness_and_Othe... (That's Bertrand Russ…

> the "lazy is bad" crowd is ludditism in another form Capital --> capitalist, capitalism. Commune --> communist, communism. Ned Ludd --> Luddite, Luddism. Not "capitalistism" or "communistism", so not "ludditism" either.

Going by your other examples, shouldn't it be Luddist and not Luddite? English is famously inconsistent and is a difficult language to learn, owing to it's linguistic heritage, as it's a bunch of exceptions to rules. Like i before e, except after c, but also in a bunch of other words, so every English student just needs to remember those.

Re: Things we learned about LLMs in 2024

#609

Post by CRConrad »

ffsm8 wrote: post #158
cactusfrog wrote: post #145

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Every waste of money is not a Ponzi scheme.

I agree, the core aspect of a ponzi scheme is that it redistributes the newly invested funds to previous investors, making it highly profitable to anyone joining early and incentivising early joiners to get new investors. This just doesn't hold true for open ai

Because "Open" AI keeps the newly invested funds only to themselves (with some scraps for employees), so early joiners don't (directly[1]) get any of the newly invested funds from later ones, you mean?

Yeah, true, not exactly a Ponzi scheme: This has even fewer redeeming qualities.

[1]: Only indirectly, by selling off their investment to that next sucker.

Re: Things we learned about LLMs in 2024

#610

Post by CRConrad »

dartos wrote: post #283
zekica wrote: post #221

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Only a part of the value is created in OpenAI's stock valuation. Most of it is still a ponzi-like scheme.

I have no love for openai, but they did make the fastest growing product of all time. There’s value in being the ones to do that. I do agree it’s a very very thin line.

> but they did make the fastest growing product of all time. There’s value in being the ones to do that.

Aha: So if my future line of Covid Cancer Candy takes off even faster, there's "value" in that, too?

What kind of value, exactly? Does the value of being "the fastest growing product of all time" not at all depend on what kind of product it is?

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