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China is the manufacturing superpower

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Re: China is the manufacturing superpower

#111

Post by grecy »

bigfatkitten wrote: post #107
grecy wrote: post #90

Earlier quoted context omitted.

FWIW, I’m an Aussie who went back during covid for the first meaningful stretch in 20 years. Explored the who country. I saw with my own eyes what you’re talking about and you are spot on. It’s depressing and sad to see how Australia can’t organize a free one in a brothel, is stuck in the past and has no real interest or plan on how to improve anything at all. Their problem is life is pretty good, so they’re not inte…

David Horne said it best in 1964. "Australia is a lucky country run mainly by second rate people who share its luck. It lives on other people’s ideas, and, although its ordinary people are adaptable, most of its leaders (in all fields) so lack curiosity about the events that surround them that they are often taken by surprise."

Thanks, I've never seen that quote. 100% spot on.

Sadly as true today as it apparently was back then.

Re: China is the manufacturing superpower

#112

Post by treebeard901 »

soramimo wrote: post #108

And unfortunately for the West, manufacturing capacity translates to military capability in any prolonged conflict (which is why industrial policy and tariffs in dual use / strategic industries seem like the way to go)

Any non-nuclear prolonged conventional war will see U.S. ammo and shipbuilding far surpassed by Chinas manufacturing base and it isnt even close. The U.S. plan was to cut off oil shipments and food if this happened. Now China can likely have a Navy capable of guarding oil shipments from the Middle East all the way to Chinese ports. Everyone in the U.S. just assumes that they did it in 1940 so they can just do it again in 2040. It was the manufacturing capacity that won in the 1940s in the first place!

Re: China is the manufacturing superpower

#113

Post by rich_sasha »

I think there's no denying that this is super impressive. Realpolitik aside, well done China.

I wonder how manufacturing output compares between China and US+EU, say. It doesn't make that much sense to look at EU constituents in separation. Even then I suppose China is ahead, but maybe it's not a total wipeout.

That led me to wonder about manufacturing output vs GDP. Is China producing more, after adjusting for its total GDP. So for example, China's GDP is about 4-5x bigger than Germany's, whereas the fraction of manufacturing output is about 5-7x different. It still puts Germany "behind" but it's not outright domination.

In fact, such fraction, of manufacturing to GDP, is a basic economics measure: it's the fraction of GDP coming from manufacturing! And it's no surprise to anyone that this fraction is high in China.

So then I guess the questions would be:

- is manufacturing expected to outperform the other constituents of global economies going forwards (i.e. is China smart putting its eggs in this basket)

- is the rest of the world at risk because China can squeeze them (perhaps)

- what is the outlook for manufacturing outside of China (maybe not great but it seems like people are waking up to this).

I wonder how much of that simply cuts back to marginal costs of energy and ESG. Presumably in China you can manufacture cheaply partly because you don't need to pay for employee rights or clean energy. Not all of this, clearly, but where would US+EU be if it wasn't constrained by broadly speaking ESG (I'm not saying it's a bad thing, but it is a thing).

Re: China is the manufacturing superpower

#114

Post by thruway516 »

treebeard901 wrote: post #112
soramimo wrote: post #108

And unfortunately for the West, manufacturing capacity translates to military capability in any prolonged conflict (which is why industrial policy and tariffs in dual use / strategic industries seem like the way to go)

Any non-nuclear prolonged conventional war will see U.S. ammo and shipbuilding far surpassed by Chinas manufacturing base and it isnt even close. The U.S. plan was to cut off oil shipments and food if this happened. Now China can likely have a Navy capable of guarding oil shipments from the Middle East all the way to Chinese ports. Everyone in the U.S. just assumes that they did it in 1940 so they can just do it agai…

You might be right. But a major 21st century conflict is likely going to be very different from past conflicts and we still don't know what that will look like. We're getting a few glimpses from the Ukraine conflict - drones, social media - but who knows what else. Having a numerical advantage in conventional arms might be the equivalent of having superior cavalry at the onset of WWI

Re: China is the manufacturing superpower

#115

Post by doppp »

tivert wrote: post #78
csomar wrote: post #57

One thing people are not aware of and am curious of how big it really is: China manufacturing laundry. Essentially, goods are manufactured in China, then laundered to a third-party country and then exported to the US/EU. This come in two flavors, legal laundry where the local manufacturer satisfies the conditions; and illegal one where bribes are paid to pass goods. > https://antidumping.vn/eu-chinabike-duty-hits-ind…

> One thing people are not aware of and am curious of how big it really is: China manufacturing laundry. Essentially, goods are manufactured in China, then laundered to a third-party country and then exported to the US/EU. IIRC, a lot of stuff that's labeled "Made in Singapore" is/was basically that.

As a Singaporean, I have not seen this. Do you have any proof?

Re: China is the manufacturing superpower

#116

Post by ted_bunny »

bobthepanda wrote: post #102
mahirsaid wrote: post #73

this is amazing and filled with facts that i wish everyone arguing the point that china cant overtake U.S. in economy or world superpowers would read. The facts are there, there is not much hiding around the corner, all of the true indication is in front of us. Yes. the article states U.S. still holds the title for world superpower by military size and capabilities. That's not to say that china cant catch up in no ti…

I don’t think it’s necessarily so clear that Chinese foreign policy has really paid off yet. Chinese loanmaking to foreign countries has mostly gone bust, with many loans basically in default. While it’s true that Western development agencies were not lending to these projects, they mostly weren’t doing so because they were doubtful of the business cases of said projects and the likelihood that the government could a…

It's been argued that if you observe actions and not words, default has always been the point of IMF loans. Have you read Confessions of an Economic Hitman?

Re: China is the manufacturing superpower

#117

Post by m0llusk »

The imbalance in trade sectors is striking. China is dominating manufacturing, but this is requiring huge imports of agricultural goods and also services. The result being that there is a trade surplus, but it is far smaller than manufacturing dominance implies and also potentially quite volatile. Global changes like the war in Ukraine stressing agriculture supply lines and the decline of Hong Kong as a provider of services could have large impacts on Chinese trade.

Re: China is the manufacturing superpower

#118

Post by grobbyy »

rich_sasha wrote: post #113

I think there's no denying that this is super impressive. Realpolitik aside, well done China. I wonder how manufacturing output compares between China and US+EU, say. It doesn't make that much sense to look at EU constituents in separation. Even then I suppose China is ahead, but maybe it's not a total wipeout. That led me to wonder about manufacturing output vs GDP. Is China producing more, after adjusting for its t…

World War II was won because of US and (less advertised) Soviet manufacturing capacity.

Ukraine is more constrained by weapon supplies, especially drones and artillery, than by manpower.

I'm not sure both sides are playing the same game. In the game I think might be afoot, if your economy is management consultants, therapists, and hair stylists, that's "bad" GDP. Resources and manufacturing are "good" GDP. Resources are complex in that stone are renewable, and some go away when you export them.

I'm not even going to talk about education or, related, R&D capacity.

Re: China is the manufacturing superpower

#119

Post by grecy »

defrost wrote: post #82
creato wrote: post #59

Earlier quoted context omitted.

They could process it themselves and consume or export those higher value materials

See: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=42593404 Australia itself doesn't have the demand for that much steel internally - China does (and exports its excess production).

> and exports its excess production

Which is exactly what Australia could do if it made a bunch of steel.

Re: China is the manufacturing superpower

#120

Post by fakedang »

MaxPock wrote: post #42
fakedang wrote: post #31

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I can't help but say that Australia is basically the stupidest country on the planet (at least amongst Western democracies, since one could say modern Russia is stupider, but that's a whole another cultural debate). It's like the degenerate alcoholic who's willing to prostitute their mother for a bar tab. A country so blessed with some of the most important natural resources, a country whose geography is synonymous w…

Do you have another market for them where they can sell 1 billion tons of iron ore a year ?

Saudi Aramco has a $50 billion dollar subsidiary called SABIC whose purpose is to take oil byproducts and refine them into plastics. Does Saudi Arabia have a huge plastic market? Or did they just think, hey, we could export this shit elsewhere for more money!

You literally let an Australian company process it to higher value products and ship it? That's literally what every oil major has done with their resources.

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