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China to Build Thorium Molten-Salt Reactor in 2025

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Re: China to Build Thorium Molten-Salt Reactor in 2025

#121
post #104
post #28

Eh. Just like the first reactor, this is going to be a toy for scientists. Thorium reactors are a dead end. Just keep building regular PWRs, operating on regular fuel (maaaaaybe MOX fuel). That's it. It's a proven, scalable method.

I‘m not in favor of nuclear at all. But I do not like the term ‚are a dead end‘. If everybody would do that we would probably not have blue led‘s and that would’ve hindered the growth of many modern computing devices.

The problem is that the amount of effort we can spend on nuclear energy is finite. And we _need_ it.

We have a good, well-known solution that has been in wide use for 60 years. So we just need to build it.

Re: China to Build Thorium Molten-Salt Reactor in 2025

#122
post #119

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Why would prosperity be a problem? Excellent question.

... I feel like I'm missing something here.

Western elites have been pushing degrowth policies for the last decade or so. GP’s precise intent is unclear, but is probably suggesting there is a hidden, sinister purpose to it.

Re: China to Build Thorium Molten-Salt Reactor in 2025

#123

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Technology can make things cheaper, often a tiny fraction of the previous unit cost. We have plenty of examples of this; why wouldn't it also be true for nuclear power?

Think about the opposite of your question. If it could it already would have, so why hasn’t it? It must not be possible. It doesn’t scale like a cpu or a website. You are still hiring extremely skilled welders, complying with regulations so you don’t Chernobyl half the country, figuring out where to put the waste that is radioactive for longer than modern humans have existed.

There are all sorts of technical solutions to those problems already on the drawing board. Even transuranic waste can be "burned" with neutrons leaving only the fission products (half-life of say 30 years, so 300 years is a 1000x reduction; 600 years is a million times reduction, basically harmless at that point). Molten salt reactors could in theory solve both problems at once at low cost. If we can build them.

I just think there's so much promise it's worth putting some time into it. Definitely a more likely payoff than fusion research.

Re: China to Build Thorium Molten-Salt Reactor in 2025

#124

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Uranium is pretty abundant. The US has a lot, China twice as much, Kazakhstan a lot more, and Australia puts everyone to shame. Thorium isn't ready to be fuel and must be enriched (granted, you need to do this for uranium too but some is naturally in a fissile state). So there's things like breeder reactors that enrich during the cycle but this is challenging and presents other issues such as turning it into weapons…

Thorium is more abundant than uranium and as said in the article China already has huge amounts of extracted thorium as a waste product from the extraction of rare-earth metals. Thorium must not be enriched and it cannot be enriched like uranium, because it has only one isotope with a long life, thorium 232, which is the only natural isotope. Natural thorium is not usable as a fission fuel, but it can be transformed…

  > Thorium is more abundant than uranium
I don't disagree. What I said is that uranium is __also__ abundant.

  > Thorium must not be enriched and it cannot be enriched like uranium
You're right. I was trying to use language that people would generally understand. Mixing breeding and enriching. They are quite similar words, differing in protons. Enrich = changing isotope (adding/subtracting neutrons), breeding = changing atoms (adding/subtracting protons). I thought this would be fine, sorry. Yes, you are right.

  > The extraction of uranium 233 from thorium ... is a process orders of magnitude simpler
You are oversimplifying things. There's plenty of "simple chemical separation processes" that are very expensive. And sure, you can get 233 from this and use it for weapons but you still want some other elements if you're going to build a weapon. There's a lot to this and acidburn would be the better person to explain all that nuance.

Re: China to Build Thorium Molten-Salt Reactor in 2025

#125

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Uranium is pretty abundant. The US has a lot, China twice as much, Kazakhstan a lot more, and Australia puts everyone to shame. Thorium isn't ready to be fuel and must be enriched (granted, you need to do this for uranium too but some is naturally in a fissile state). So there's things like breeder reactors that enrich during the cycle but this is challenging and presents other issues such as turning it into weapons…

Isn't thorium also pretty abundant? Judging by this, the US has around six times as much thorium as uranium: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_uranium_r... https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_thorium_r... I've also never really gotten the proliferation concern. I mean, sure, you don't want to sell a breeder reactor to Iran. But why can't you sell one to PG&E? Are we that concerned that…

  > Isn't thorium also pretty abundant?
Yes. Even more so! But that doesn't mean it's easy to get. Everything has to be processed at the end of the day.

The reason I brought up uranium is that it is easier to fissile. So sure, there's more thorium but it requires more processing. Why use it when we aren't concerned about uranium access? Uranium is already "cheap". (We could get into an analogy with different types of oil if that helps. Like why the US produces so much, exports it, then buys a different type)

  > I've also never really gotten the proliferation concern.
There's two issues here:

1) sure, the US doesn't care if California gets a bomb, but Russia and China sure do.

2) Breeder reactors are reactors that make higher elements.

Discussion of thorium are often extremely over simplified. Proliferation always ALWAYS must involve international relationships. When we get into that the logic changes. You need to consider a lot of higher order effects/connections since everything is always being used as leverage for other things.

Breeding is also a very complicated topic. Just like enrichment. Look at the Iran deal. They can do enrichment but only do much, right?[0]. Often fine because it's hard to scale and generally noticeable. But the same is true for breeding. Instead of turning one atom into a different isotope (e.g U238 -> U235) you change an atom to a different atom (e.g. Th233 -> Pa233 -> U233). This all happens in the reactor. It's hard to separate but hard to track. You can also keep breeding (fast reactor = more/high energy neutrons), where do you think plutonium comes from? The reason it is better for proliferation concerns is it increases the difficulty. At worst, you need to start earlier. But what I wanted to combat is the misinformation that thorium __can't __ be used for proliferation, making it safe for.., idk, Iran? It's good to add more barriers.

I'll also add waste. This is often discussed too. This is again fraught with nuance. We can dramatically reduce waste but we don't. There just isn't much of it and doing more fission is less economical. That is, unless you don't have lots of uranium laying around. That's the case with France, so they "recycle" their waste and in the process this dramatically reduces it. You can fit over 50 years of waste in a Costco and they do. You also can use similar technologies as thorium would need with uranium and still reduce waste. So that points us back to the opening: yes, thorium is abundant, but why go through all that effort when we got plenty of uranium which is cheap and efficient?

I recommend poking around AcidBurn's website. He has a lot of good information and I think he's written well in a way that's fairly approachable (it is nuclear, it's by default not approachable and easy to think you understand much more than you do. If you went through a physics degree this is often a confusing class taken at the upper level).

[0] When they broke the agreement and made more they suspiciously only made a small amount more which would take a long time to get enough for weapons. But they were also loud. Great strategy because public gets afraid, it's a threat, but they also signal that they're willing you deal but want to renegotiate (only experts would know this though). The interesting part is how their best weapon was our own fear and ignorance.

Re: China to Build Thorium Molten-Salt Reactor in 2025

#126
post #109
post #39

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Their ball is already rolling. They put a pair of high temperature gas cooled pebble bed reactors into operation a little more than a year ago. They're actively exploring every avenue of nuclear power without restraint, including thorium and fast breeders. It hasn't yet occurred to the Chinese that the prosperity afforded by abundant energy is a problem they're supposed to be solving.

> the prosperity afforded by abundant energy is a problem they're supposed to be solving. What does this mean? Did you misplace a word somewhere? Why would prosperity be a problem?

The way I read it is that the amount of energy available for direct use translates directly to the quality of life. The more energy they have, the more they can do with it. Plus if it’s clean and readily available. Instead of being world’s factory for garbage, or figuring out how to invade Taiwan, figure out how to supply clean, “reasonably cheap” nuclear energy.

Re: China to Build Thorium Molten-Salt Reactor in 2025

#127
post #37

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The economics of nuclear power is dominated by a poorly designed regulatory environment (which can be changed if regulators are suitablely motivated). https://www.construction-physics.com/p/why-are-nuclear-power...

I dispute that. I'm as pro-nuclear as one can be, but I don't think the NRC (Nuclear Regulatory Commission) is doing a bad job, or that the regulations are unreasonable. In the end, a lot of the regulations came as a response to incidents like Three Mile Island, Chernobyl and Fukushima, and others less well known. One way or another, nuclear reactors are extremely complex machines, with numerous failure modes. As var…

Which part of the linked article do you dispute?

Re: China to Build Thorium Molten-Salt Reactor in 2025

#128
post #43

Earlier quoted context omitted.

They don't want to what? Don't want to give up poorly designed regulations? Or do not want nuclear power? The latter is largely due to the anti nuclear movement, as sponsored by the petroleum industry. This will go down in history as one of the biggest self-owns in trying to protect the environment. https://www.forbes.com/sites/kensilverstein/2016/07/13/are-f...

Don’t want to be forced to pay a premium for the most expensive mainstream form of power generation.

And we're back to the beginning. One of the major costs of current reactors is regulatory burden. One of the reasons we don't see improvements in costs is it is extremely hard to release changes or new designs.

Re: China to Build Thorium Molten-Salt Reactor in 2025

#129
post #9

Earlier quoted context omitted.

yeah I think that hypothesis has legs. China has been trying to diversify their energy portfolio for a long time now. They're also going full steam ahead on wind and solar and is the world leader in battery storage (lithium ion and other types too). Fossil fuel, other than coal, has always been a major weakness for China that can be choked off via the Straits of Malacca. I wonder if powering their reactor using thori…

"full steam ahead on wind and solar" the only two generation strategies that don't involve steam ;)

concentrated solar uses steam

Re: China to Build Thorium Molten-Salt Reactor in 2025

#130
post #43

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Now for the real reason, voters dont want to.

They don't want to what? Don't want to give up poorly designed regulations? Or do not want nuclear power? The latter is largely due to the anti nuclear movement, as sponsored by the petroleum industry. This will go down in history as one of the biggest self-owns in trying to protect the environment. https://www.forbes.com/sites/kensilverstein/2016/07/13/are-f...

Dont want to be scared of a nuclear meltdown
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