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GPT-5 is behind schedule

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Re: GPT-5 is behind schedule

#941

Post by cshores »

jaybna wrote: post #894
cshores wrote: post #815

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It ultimately doesn't matter because a fairly current snapshot of all of the world's information is already housed in their data lakes. The next stage for AI training is to generate synthetic data either by other AI or by simulations to further train on as human generated content can only go so far.

https://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-024-07566-y

I understand the concept of AI model collapse caused by recursion. What I’m proposing goes beyond a basic feedback loop, like repeatedly running Stable Diffusion. Instead, I envision an AI system with specialized expertise, akin to a scientist making a breakthrough based on inputs from a researcher—or even autonomously. This specialized AI could then train other, less specialized models in its area of expertise. For example, it might generate a discovery that is as straightforward as producing a white paper for interpretation. If there is an virtual "scientist" that is trained on DNA for instance, could come up with a discovery for a treatment. This gets published, circulated and trained in to other models. This isn't the kind of inbreeding that you suggest as the answer is valid.

Re: GPT-5 is behind schedule

#942

Post by webmaven »

FrustratedMonky wrote: post #877
gizmo wrote: post #838

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Many terrific books have been published in the past 500 years. The median book is not worth your time, however, and neither is the top 10%. You cannot possibly read everything so you have to be very selective or you will read only dreck. This is the opposite of being anti-science or anti-education.

But compared to the content on the internet? So Top 10% of Books. Ok 90 % of Books. marginal, lot of bad. Internet. Just millions of pages of junk. - Books still take some effort. So why not start there. It isn't either/or, binary, a lot of books are bad, so guess I'll learn my medical degree from browsing the web because I don't trust those 'experts'.

You seem to have excluded the possibility of a "Top 10% of the Internet" tranche.

Re: GPT-5 is behind schedule

#943

Post by fud101 »

SamPatt wrote: post #415

I'm sure the debate over the definition of AGI is important and will continue for a while, but... I can't care about it anymore. Between Perplexity searching and summarizing, Claude explaining, and qwen (and other tools) coding, I'm already as happy as can be with whatever you want to call this level of intelligence. Just today I used a completely local AI research tool, based on Ollama. It worked great. Maybe it won…

how do you interact with perplexity? mobile app?

Re: GPT-5 is behind schedule

#944

Post by webmaven »

ithadtobe119 wrote: post #638
atonse wrote: post #457

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Same here. The ability to “talk to an expert” about any topic I’m curious about and ask very specific questions has been invaluable to me. It reminds me of being a kid and asking my grandpa a million questions, like how light bulbs worked, or what was inside his radio, or how do we have day and night. And before anyone talks about accuracy or hallucinations, these conversations usually are treated as starting off poi…

(throwaway account because of what I'm about to say, but it needs to be said) While my main use case for LLMs is coding just like most people here, there are lots of areas that are being ignored. Did you know llama 3.X models have been trained as psychotherapists? It's been invaluable to dump and discuss feelings with it in ways I wouldn't trust any regular person. When real therapists also cost more than what people…

There are other players in this space than c. ai. One of the more interesting (and apparently less cynical) ones is Nomi. Tinkering with personalities on their platform can be quite fascinating.

It is possible, for example, to create a cunning and manipulative schemer that is entirely devoted to mentoring you with no romantic component whatsoever.

Re: GPT-5 is behind schedule

#945

Post by johnisgood »

SamPatt wrote: post #859
dns_snek wrote: post #740

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Yes, the big companies are making the models, but enough of them are open weights that they can be fine tuned and run however you like. And how long is that going to last? This is a well known playbook at this point, we'd be better off if we didn't fall for it yet again - it's comical at this point. Sooner or later they'll lock the ecosystem down, take all the free stuff away and demand to extract the market value…

How will they do this? You can't take the free stuff away. It's on my hard drive. They can stop releasing them, but local models aren't going anywhere.

What are the hardware and software requirements for a self-hosted LLM that is akin to Claude?

Re: GPT-5 is behind schedule

#946

Post by kridsdale1 »

atoav wrote: post #738
solardev wrote: post #732

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> a revolution in knowledge-worker productivity. That's a nice euphemism for "imminent mass layoffs and a race to the bottom"...

These productivity gains won't be shared with the employees. I think some people underestimate what a violent populus can do to them if they squeeze out even more Yacht money from the people.

Every one of those employees is capable of either using the new tools to start their own companies and solve unaddressed customer problems, or negotiate for comp that has equity. This has always been true.

The losers here are algorithm junkies who refuse to learn new skills and want to solve yesterday’s problems.

Re: GPT-5 is behind schedule

#948

Post by popcorncowboy »

achierius wrote: post #152
Kuinox wrote: post #149

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Wait a few month and they will have a distilled model with the same performance and 1% of the run cost.

Even assuming that past rates of inference cost scaling hold up, we would only expect a 2 OoM decrease after about a year or so. And 1% of 3.5b is still a very large number.

And to your point "past performance is not indicative of future results". The extrapolate to infinity approach is the mindfever of this field.

Re: GPT-5 is behind schedule

#949

Post by arthurcolle »

mkl wrote: post #677
arthurcolle wrote: post #516

Earlier quoted context omitted.

its happening right now, its just demo quality. it's being worked on now

So it's not trivial and you don't have competent AI office workers.

Sorry you're dealing with cope. Deal with it fast, things are happening

Re: GPT-5 is behind schedule

#950

Post by [deleted] »

ithadtobe119 wrote: post #656
hawk_ wrote: post #646

Earlier quoted context omitted.

While I empathize with the therapeutic effects, wouldn't this create even more powerful echo chambers? May be so many men and women of your generation are single because of already established echo chambers. It's in our nature to crave outside acceptance of who we are. But may be taken to extreme, when we stop being wanting to be challenged at all we could lose touch with reality, society...

I don't think anyone is saying that porn is healthy or something anyone should consume. Or smoking or whatever, but unhealthy enjoyable things are trillion dollar industries regardless. The thing is though, LLMs do whatever you tune them to do. If you train them on a sycophantic corporate drone butler dataset, you get the average assistant model that's obviously a bad fit for this use case. If you train them on somet…

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