Hacker News Board Hacker News, browsed like a classic message board
Live data from Hacker News

GPT-5 is behind schedule

wsj.com

Post reply on HN
Print view View original

931–940 of 1001 posts

Re: GPT-5 is behind schedule

#931

Post by Nevermark »

heavyset_go wrote: post #891
RationPhantoms wrote: post #848

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Would you trust a ML self-driving algorithm trained on a "digital twin" of a city? I would. I view synthetic training data like a digital twin in which it can provider further control or specified noise to understand from.

> Would you trust a ML self-driving algorithm trained on a "digital twin" of a city? I would. No, just as I wouldn't trust a surgeon who studied medicine by playing Operation. A gross approximation is not a substitute for real life.

How a model learns doesn’t really matter. What works works.

How it is tested and validated is what matters.

There are lots of ways to train on synthetic data, and synthetic data can have advantages as well as disadvantages over natural data.

Creative use of synthetic data is going to lead to many cases where we find it is good enough. Or even better than natural data.

Re: GPT-5 is behind schedule

#932

Post by ben_w »

raducu wrote: post #579
wilg wrote: post #548

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Its good to not trust it but that's not the same as it having no idea . There is a lot of value in being close for many tasks!

> Its good to not trust it but that's not the same as it having no idea. There is a lot of value in being close for many tasks! The task is to replace hazelcast with infinispan in a stand-alone IMDG setup. You're interested in Locks and EntryProcessors. Ghat GPT 4, o1 tell you with their enthusiastic style Infinispan has all those features. You test it locally and it does.... But the thing is infinispan doesn't have…

Given I have never heard of any of {hazelcast, infinispan, IMDG, EntryProcessors}, even that kind of wrong would probably be a improvement by virtue of reducing the time I spend working on the wrong answer.

But only "probably" — the very fact that I've not heard of those things means I don't know if there's a potential risk from trying to push this onto a test server.

You do have a test server, and aren't just testing locally, right? Whatever this is?

Re: GPT-5 is behind schedule

#933

Post by r3d0c »

tim333 wrote: post #823
echoangle wrote: post #818

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Maybe the problem isn't the algorithm but the hardware. Numerically simulating the thermal flow in a lightbulb or CFD of a Stone flying through air is pretty hard, but the physical thing isn't that complex to do. We're trying to simulate the function of a brain which is basically an analog thing using a digital computer. Of course that can be harder than running the brain itself.

If you think of human neurons they seem to basically take inputs from bunch of other neurons, possibly modified by chemical levels and send out a signal when they get enough. It seems like something that could be functionally simulated in software by some fairly basic adding up inputs type stuff rather than needing the details of all the chemistry.

lol, just done that simply huh? said by someone who doesn't have a teenth of understanding of neurobiology or neuropsychology

only on hackernews

Re: GPT-5 is behind schedule

#934

Post by CamperBob2 »

jaybna wrote: post #897
CamperBob2 wrote: post #866

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It's hard to envision a greater success for the "great academic project" than what happened. I mean, what else were they trying to accomplish?

It was meant to be an open-source compilation of the crawled internet so that research could be done on web search given how opaque Google's process is. It was NOT meant to be a cheap source of data for for-profit LLM's to train on. *edit: added "for-profit"

(Shrug) Multiple not-for-profit LLMs have trained on it as well.

If something I worked on turned out to play a significant part in something that turned out to be that big a deal, I'd be OK with it. And nobody's stopping people from doing web-search studies with it, to this day.

Re: GPT-5 is behind schedule

#935

Post by dmix »

a_wild_dandan wrote: post #873
dmix wrote: post #832

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> It's fast and no frontend people are needed for it I guess if you don’t need to maintain it, just an ever growing blob of complexity that will be reinvented into new blobs every time when the old one becomes too immobile :)

So...nothing will change?

True I could imagine in the ERP world building one-off solutions repeatedly for tons of consulting money is the status quo. Most software businesses can't afford repeatedly starting from scratch and having zero reusability of stuff they already invested in getting working and tested, even with AI assistance.

Re: GPT-5 is behind schedule

#936

Post by TeMPOraL »

mvc wrote: post #707
wilg wrote: post #548

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Its good to not trust it but that's not the same as it having no idea . There is a lot of value in being close for many tasks!

> There is a lot of value in being close for many tasks! horseshoes and hand-grenades?

Yes. Despite this apparently popular saying, "close enough" is sufficient in almost everything in life. Usually it's the best you can get anyway - and this is fine, because on most things, you can also iterate, and then the only thing that matters is that you keep getting closer (fast enough to converge in reasonable time, anyway).

Where "close" does not count, it suggests there's some artificial threshold at play. Some are unavoidable, some might be desirable to push through, but in general, life sucks when you surround yourself or enforce artificial hard cut-offs.

Re: GPT-5 is behind schedule

#937

Post by [deleted] »

jameslk wrote: post #813
aftbit wrote: post #796

Earlier quoted context omitted.

IMO this is an underappreciated advantage for Google. Nobody wants to block the GoogleBot, so they can continue to scrape for AI data long after AI-specific companies get blocked. Gemini is currently embarrassingly bad given it came from the shop that: 1. invented the Transformer architecture 2. has (one of) the largest compute clusters on the planet 3. can scrape every website thanks to a long-standing whitelist

For OpenAI, they could lean on their relationship with Microsoft for Bing crawler access Websites won’t be blocking the search engine crawlers until they stop sending back traffic, even if they’re sending back less and less traffic

[deleted]

Re: GPT-5 is behind schedule

#938

Post by willmadden »

I-M-S wrote: post #812
willmadden wrote: post #759

Earlier quoted context omitted.

No, the job market will adapt, just like it did during the industrial and information revolutions, and life will be better.

It will be better for those who already have it good. How it will affect those who don't is the real question here.

You have no idea if that's true or not.

Re: GPT-5 is behind schedule

#939

Post by ninetyninenine »

zifpanachr23 wrote: post #910
ninetyninenine wrote: post #628

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The definition of agi is a linguistic problem but people confuse it for a philosophical problem. Think about it. The term is basically just a classification and what features and qualities fit the classification is an arbitrary and linguistic choice. The debate stems from a delusion and failure to realize that people are simply picking and choosing different fringe features on what qualifies as agi. Additionally the…

If it's genuinely what you say, then how is what is going on not slavery? I don't believe AGI is possible but if it was and it was as subjective as you say what is and isn't conscious, then it starts to take on an even more altogether evil character. Akin to cloning slave humans or something for free cheap labor.

how does a linguistic and language issue relate to slavery. It's the definition of a word. That's all.

Slavery is also a word. Don’t you find it strange that your entire moral framework is constructed on top of the basis of arbitrary definitions of vocabulary? Make what you think is right or wrong based not off of language. Language is a delusion that masquerades as something with actual meaning when it is just an invention, a tool, to facilitate communication.

Right now your concept of right and wrong is a vocabulary issue. Does this make sense? No.

Re: GPT-5 is behind schedule

#940

Post by phyalow »

pphysch wrote: post #840
cshores wrote: post #815

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It ultimately doesn't matter because a fairly current snapshot of all of the world's information is already housed in their data lakes. The next stage for AI training is to generate synthetic data either by other AI or by simulations to further train on as human generated content can only go so far.

How is synthetic data supposed to work? Broadly speaking, ML is about extracting signal from noisy data and learning the subtle patterns. If there is untapped signal in existing datasets, then learning processes should be improved. It does not follow that there should be a separate economic step where someone produces "synthetic data" from the real data, and then we treat the fake data as real data. From a scientific…

Um, augmentation (i.e. the generation of synthetic data) is a very very well known technique for improving learning.

Also whats with the hate for MBA’s?

Your comment is off kilter with the rules here.

Post reply on HN