GPT-5 is behind schedule • Hacker News Board

Re: GPT-5 is behind schedule

#921

Post by dambi0 » Mon, Dec 23, 2024, 9:17 PM UTC

ConceptJunkie wrote: post #762

Flenkno wrote: post #716

Earlier quoted context omitted.

when i tried studying, i got really frustrated because i had to search for so many things and not a lot of people would explain basic math things to me in a simple way. LLMs do already a lot better job at this. A lot faster, accurate enough and easy to use. I can now study something alone which i was not able to do before.

> accurate enough Ask it something non-trivial about a subject you are an expert in and get back to me.

Sadly I lack expertise. Do you have any concrete examples? How does, say the Wiki entry on the topic compare to your expert opinion.

Re: GPT-5 is behind schedule

#922

Post by kyledrake » Mon, Dec 23, 2024, 9:32 PM UTC

pixl97 wrote: post #850

kyledrake wrote: post #844

Earlier quoted context omitted.

This just feels like mystery meat to me. My guess is that a lot of legitimate users and VPNs are being blocked from viewing sites, which numerous users in this discussion have confirmed. This seems like a very bad way to approach this, and ironically their model quite possible also uses some sort of machine learning to work. A few web hosting platforms are using the cloudflare blocker and I think it's incredibly unet…

> I think it's incredibly unethical. The internet isn't built on ethical behavior, unfortunately.

I get that a lot of people are opposed to AI, but blocking random IP ranges seems like a really inappropriate way to do this, the friendly fire is going to be massive. The robots.txt approach is fine, but it would be nice if it could get standardized so that you don't have to change it a lot based on new companies (like a generic no llm crawling directive for example).

Re: GPT-5 is behind schedule

#923

Post by hengheng » Mon, Dec 23, 2024, 9:42 PM UTC

ben_w wrote: post #747

hengheng wrote: post #742

Earlier quoted context omitted.

My personal criterion for calling somebody an expert, or "educated", or a "scholar" is that they have any random area of expertise where they really know their shit. And as a consequence, they know where that area of expertise ends. And they know what half-knowing something feels like compared to really knowing something. And thus, they will preface and qualify their statements. LLMs don't do any of that. I don't kno…

> And as a consequence, they know where that area of expertise ends. And they know what half-knowing something feels like compared to really knowing something. And thus, they will preface and qualify their statements. How do you count examples like Musk, then? He is very cautious about rockets, and all the space science people I follow and hold in high regard, say he's actually a domain expert there. He regularly exp…

Musk is probably really good at back of the envelope calculations. The kind that lets you excel in first year physics. That skill puts you above a lot of people in finance and engineering when it comes to quickly assessing an idea. It is also a gimmick, but I respect it. My wild guess is that he uses that one skill to find out who to believe among the people he hires.

The rest of the genius persona is growing up with enough ego that he could become a good salesman, and also badly managed autism and also a badly managed drug habit.

Seeing him dabble in politics and social media shows instantly how little he understands the limits of his knowledge. A scholar he is not.

Re: GPT-5 is behind schedule

#924

Post by hengheng » Mon, Dec 23, 2024, 9:46 PM UTC

EricMausler wrote: post #799

hengheng wrote: post #742

Earlier quoted context omitted.

My personal criterion for calling somebody an expert, or "educated", or a "scholar" is that they have any random area of expertise where they really know their shit. And as a consequence, they know where that area of expertise ends. And they know what half-knowing something feels like compared to really knowing something. And thus, they will preface and qualify their statements. LLMs don't do any of that. I don't kno…

Anecdotal but I told chatgpt to include it's level of confidence in its answers and to let me know if it didn't know something. This priming resulted in it starting almost every answer with some variation of "I'm not sure, but.." when I asked it vague / speculative questions and then when I asked it direct matter of fact questions with easy answers it would answer with confidence. That's not to say I think it is rati…

You'd have to find out the veracity of those leading phrases. I'm guessing that it just prefaces the answer with a randomly chosen statement of doubtfulness. The error bar behind every bit of knowledge would have to exist in the dataset.

(And in neural network terms, that error bar could be represented by the number of connections, by congruency of separate paths of arguing, by vividness of memories, etc ... it's not above human reasoning either, no need for new data structures ...)

Re: GPT-5 is behind schedule

#925

Post by hengheng » Mon, Dec 23, 2024, 9:49 PM UTC

gizmo wrote: post #766

hengheng wrote: post #742

Earlier quoted context omitted.

My personal criterion for calling somebody an expert, or "educated", or a "scholar" is that they have any random area of expertise where they really know their shit. And as a consequence, they know where that area of expertise ends. And they know what half-knowing something feels like compared to really knowing something. And thus, they will preface and qualify their statements. LLMs don't do any of that. I don't kno…

The level of confidence with which people express themselves is a (neutral to me) style choice. I'm indifferent because when I don't know somebody I don't know whether to take their opinions seriously regardless of the level of confidence they project. Some people who really know their shit are brash and loud and other experts hedge and qualify everything they say. Outward humility isn't a reliable signal. Even indis…

I agree, and a lot of that is cultural as well. But there is still a variety of confidence within the statements of a single person, hopefully a lot, and I calibrate to that.

Re: GPT-5 is behind schedule

#926

Post by kevinsync » Mon, Dec 23, 2024, 9:57 PM UTC

netdevphoenix wrote: post #817

kevinsync wrote: post #797

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I actually find LLMs lacking true expertise to be a feature, not a bug. Most of the time I'm starting from a place of no knowledge on a topic that's novel to me, I ask some questions, it replies with summaries, keywords, names of things, basic concepts. I enter with the assumption that it's really no different than googling phrases and sifting through results (except I don't know what phrases I'm supposed to be googl…

You forget that it makes stuff up and you won't know it until you google it. When googling, fake stuff stands out because truth is consistent. Querying multiple llms at the same time and being able to compare results is a much better comparison to googling but no one does this. As I said, you are talking to a super confident journalist intern who can give you answers but you won't know if it is true or partially true…

I agree with everything you said, except I think we're both right at the same time.

Ol' boy at the Depot is constrained by his own experiences and knowledge, absolutely can hallucinate, oftentimes will insert wild, irrelevant opinions and stories while getting to the point, and frankly if you line 6 of them up side by side to answer the same question, you're probably leaving with 8 different answers.

There's never One True Solution (tm) for any query; there are 100 ways to plumb your way out of a problem, and you're asking a literal stranger who you assume will at least point you in the right direction (which is kind of preposterous to begin with)

I encourage people to treat LLMs the same way -- use it as a jumping off point, a tool for discovery that's no more definitive than if you're asking for directions at some backwoods gas station. Take the info you get, look deeper with other tools, work the problem, and you'll find a solution.

Don't accept anything they provide at face value. I'm sure we all remember at least a couple teachers growing up who were the literal authority figures in our lives at the time, fully accredited and presented to us as masters of their curriculum, who were completely human, oftentimes wrong, and totally full of shit. So goes the LLM.

Re: GPT-5 is behind schedule

#927

Post by myroon5 » Mon, Dec 23, 2024, 9:58 PM UTC

bwhiting2356 wrote: post #120

I want AI to help me in the physical world: folding my laundry, cooking and farming healthy food, cleaning toilets. Training data is not lying around on the internet for free, but it's also not impossible. How much data do you need? A dozen warehouses full of robots folding and unfolding laundry 24/7 for a few months?

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/XY_problem?

Many non-AI products already reduce chore time:

* Washer-Dryer Combos

* Soylent/Huel bars

* Self-cleaning toilets / automatic toilet bowl cleaners

* Robotic vacuums / mowers / pool/litter cleaners

* Pet/plant feeders

Re: GPT-5 is behind schedule

#928

Post by wing-_-nuts » Mon, Dec 23, 2024, 9:59 PM UTC

superluserdo wrote: post #881

wing-_-nuts wrote: post #767

Earlier quoted context omitted.

A number of sites have started outright blocking any traffic that looks remotely suspicious. This has made browsing with a vpn a bit of a pain.

I wish I could go back to the days of doing almost anything at all without having to tell a server what a motorbike or traffic light is.

LPT: switch to the audio captcha. Yes, it takes a bit longer than if you did one grid captcha perfectly, but I never have to sit there and wonder if a square really has a crosswalk or not, and I never wind up doing more than one.

Re: GPT-5 is behind schedule

#929

Post by footy » Mon, Dec 23, 2024, 10:00 PM UTC

atonse wrote: post #457

SamPatt wrote: post #415

I'm sure the debate over the definition of AGI is important and will continue for a while, but... I can't care about it anymore. Between Perplexity searching and summarizing, Claude explaining, and qwen (and other tools) coding, I'm already as happy as can be with whatever you want to call this level of intelligence. Just today I used a completely local AI research tool, based on Ollama. It worked great. Maybe it won…

Same here. The ability to “talk to an expert” about any topic I’m curious about and ask very specific questions has been invaluable to me. It reminds me of being a kid and asking my grandpa a million questions, like how light bulbs worked, or what was inside his radio, or how do we have day and night. And before anyone talks about accuracy or hallucinations, these conversations usually are treated as starting off poi…

> For insanely curious people who often feel unsatisfied with the answers given by those around them, it’s the greatest thing ever.

As an insanely curious person who's often unsatisfied with the answers given by those around me, I can't agree. The greatest thing ever is libraries. I don't want to outsource my thinking to a computer any more than I want to outsource it to the people around me.

Re: GPT-5 is behind schedule

#930

Post by phist_mcgee » Mon, Dec 23, 2024, 10:05 PM UTC

globular-toast wrote: post #597

phist_mcgee wrote: post #122

Earlier quoted context omitted.

No ad hominem please.

Hmm... calling people "not engineers" is considered an attack now? I'm afraid this is actually revealing your own bias towards engineers. I never said engineers were superior or that we'd be better off with a whole world full of them.

Nice try mate, but you're not flipping this one on me.