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GPT-5 is behind schedule

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Re: GPT-5 is behind schedule

#751

Post by cedws »

jaybna wrote: post #741

25% of the top 1000 websites are blocking OpenAI from crawling: https://originality.ai/ai-bot-blocking I am betting hundreds of thousands, rising to millions more little sites, will start blocking/gating this year. AI companies might license from big sources (you can see the blocking percentage went down), but they will be missing the long tail, where a lot of great novel training data lives. And then the big sites w…

Cloudflare has a toggle for blocking AI scrapers. I don’t think it’s default, but it’s there.

Re: GPT-5 is behind schedule

#752

Post by aprilthird2021 »

mitemte wrote: post #503
uludag wrote: post #478

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I'm pretty sure the plan has never been to just make these tools that make us more efficient. If AI stays at the level it's at, it would be a profound failure for companies like OpenAI. We're all benefiting from the capital being poured into these technologies now. The enshittification will come. The enshittification always comes.

I’m paying $240 a year to Anthropic that I wasn’t paying before and it’s worth it. While I don’t use Claude every single day, but I use it several times a day when I’m working. More times than the free tier allows.

Why do people say this like it's a refutation? Current valuation and investments were not based on getting a very small group of nerds (affectionately) on HN to pay $250/yr which probably doesn't cover even inference costs for the models let alone training and R&D

Re: GPT-5 is behind schedule

#753

Post by jpablo »

jaybna wrote: post #741

25% of the top 1000 websites are blocking OpenAI from crawling: https://originality.ai/ai-bot-blocking I am betting hundreds of thousands, rising to millions more little sites, will start blocking/gating this year. AI companies might license from big sources (you can see the blocking percentage went down), but they will be missing the long tail, where a lot of great novel training data lives. And then the big sites w…

They aren't blocking anything. They are just asking nicely not to be crawled. Given that AI companies haven't cared a single bit about ripping of other's peoples data I don't see why they would care now.

Re: GPT-5 is behind schedule

#754

Post by jaybna »

cedws wrote: post #751
jaybna wrote: post #741

25% of the top 1000 websites are blocking OpenAI from crawling: https://originality.ai/ai-bot-blocking I am betting hundreds of thousands, rising to millions more little sites, will start blocking/gating this year. AI companies might license from big sources (you can see the blocking percentage went down), but they will be missing the long tail, where a lot of great novel training data lives. And then the big sites w…

Cloudflare has a toggle for blocking AI scrapers. I don’t think it’s default, but it’s there.

They might get into the micro-licensing game too. More power to them.

Re: GPT-5 is behind schedule

#755

Post by jaybna »

jpablo wrote: post #753
jaybna wrote: post #741

25% of the top 1000 websites are blocking OpenAI from crawling: https://originality.ai/ai-bot-blocking I am betting hundreds of thousands, rising to millions more little sites, will start blocking/gating this year. AI companies might license from big sources (you can see the blocking percentage went down), but they will be missing the long tail, where a lot of great novel training data lives. And then the big sites w…

They aren't blocking anything. They are just asking nicely not to be crawled. Given that AI companies haven't cared a single bit about ripping of other's peoples data I don't see why they would care now.

Yeah, probably right. If you want a great rabbit hole, look up "Common Crawl" and see how a great academic project was absolutely hijacked for pennies on the dollar to grab training data - the foundation for every LLM out there right now.

Re: GPT-5 is behind schedule

#756

Post by aprilthird2021 »

solardev wrote: post #732
LASR wrote: post #610

So the team I lead does a lot of research around all the “plumbing” around LLMs. Both technical and from a product-market perspectives. What I’ve learned is that for the most part that AI revolution is not going to be because of PHD-level LLMs. It will be because people are better equipped to use the high-schooler level LLMs to do their work more efficiently. We have some knowledge graph experiments where LLMs contin…

> a revolution in knowledge-worker productivity. That's a nice euphemism for "imminent mass layoffs and a race to the bottom"...

Knowledge worker productivity has increased in other ways over the decades. Increases don't always lead to mass layoffs. Rails made (and still makes) many many web devs much more productive than before. Its arrival did not lead to mass layoffs

Re: GPT-5 is behind schedule

#757

Post by fn-mote »

gizmo wrote: post #686
netdevphoenix wrote: post #640

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> The ability to “talk to an expert” about any topic I’m curious about and ask very specific questions has been invaluable to me. It is dangerous to assume that LLMs are experts on any topic. With or without quotes. You are getting a super fast journalist intern with a huge memory but inability to reason critically, lacking understanding about anything and huge unreliability when it comes to answering questions (you…

People who are experts (PhD and 20 years of experience) often have very dumb opinions in their field of expertise. Experts make amateur mistakes too. Look at the books written by expert economists, expert psychologists, expert historians, expert philosophers, expert software engineers. Most books are not worth the paper they're written on, despite the authors being experts with decades of experience in their respecti…

Frankly, I'm not sure what the point of the parent's comment is. Experts can be dumb and ChatGPT is dumb so it's an expert?

> People who are experts (PhD and 20 years of experience) often have very dumb opinions in their field of expertise.

The conventional wisdom is that experts are dumb OUTSIDE of their fields of expertise.

I don't know about you, but I would be very insulted by someone passing judgement like this on my own work in my field. I am sure that I would doubt their qualifications to even make the judgement.

Are there experienced fools? Sure. We both probably work with some. To me they are not experts, though.

Re: GPT-5 is behind schedule

#758

Post by throw4847285 »

gizmo wrote: post #686
netdevphoenix wrote: post #640

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> The ability to “talk to an expert” about any topic I’m curious about and ask very specific questions has been invaluable to me. It is dangerous to assume that LLMs are experts on any topic. With or without quotes. You are getting a super fast journalist intern with a huge memory but inability to reason critically, lacking understanding about anything and huge unreliability when it comes to answering questions (you…

People who are experts (PhD and 20 years of experience) often have very dumb opinions in their field of expertise. Experts make amateur mistakes too. Look at the books written by expert economists, expert psychologists, expert historians, expert philosophers, expert software engineers. Most books are not worth the paper they're written on, despite the authors being experts with decades of experience in their respecti…

The fact that humans make mistakes has little to no bearing on their capacity to create monumental intellectual works. I recently finished The Power Broker by Robert Caro, and found a mistake in the acknowledgements where he mixed up two towns in New York. Does that invalidate his 500+ interviews and years of research? No.

Also, expert historians, philosophers psychs, etc. aren't judged based on their correctness, but on their breadth and depth of knowledge and their capacity to derive novel insights. Some of the best works of history I've read are both detailed and polemical, trying to argue for a new framework for understanding a historical epoch that shifts how we understand our modern world.

I don't know, I think I know very little about the world and there are people who know far more and I appreciate reading what they have to say, of course with a critical eye. It seems to me that disagreeing with that is just regurgitated anti-intellectualism, which is a coherent position, but it's good to be honest about it.

Re: GPT-5 is behind schedule

#759

Post by willmadden »

solardev wrote: post #732
LASR wrote: post #610

So the team I lead does a lot of research around all the “plumbing” around LLMs. Both technical and from a product-market perspectives. What I’ve learned is that for the most part that AI revolution is not going to be because of PHD-level LLMs. It will be because people are better equipped to use the high-schooler level LLMs to do their work more efficiently. We have some knowledge graph experiments where LLMs contin…

> a revolution in knowledge-worker productivity. That's a nice euphemism for "imminent mass layoffs and a race to the bottom"...

No, the job market will adapt, just like it did during the industrial and information revolutions, and life will be better.

Re: GPT-5 is behind schedule

#760

Post by aprilthird2021 »

skinner_ wrote: post #245
lm28469 wrote: post #42

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> How can some people think it’s amazing and has completely changed how they work, while for me it makes mistakes that should a static analyser would catch? There are a lot of code monkeys working on boilerplate code, these people used to rely on stack overflow and now that chatgpt is here it's a huge improvement for them If you work on anything remotely complex or which hasn't been solved 10 times on stack overflow…

I work on very complex problems. Some of my solutions have small, standard substeps that now I can reliably outsource to ChatGPT. Here are a few just from last week: - write cvxpy code to find the chromatic number of a graph, and an optimal coloring, given its adjecency matrix. - given an adjecency matrix write numpy code that enumerates all triangle-free vertex subsets. - please port this old code from tensorflow to…

He doesn't mean complex/ research-level tasks.

He means complex in bridging together many non-public libraries, APIs and services which the LLM doesn't know well. That kind of complexity

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