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GPT-5 is behind schedule

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Re: GPT-5 is behind schedule

#661

Post by steveoscaro »

vbezhenar wrote: post #652
foolfoolz wrote: post #294

Earlier quoted context omitted.

AGI will arrive like self driving cars. it’s not that you will wake up one day and we have it. cars gained auto-braking, parallel parking, cruise control assist. and over a long time you get to something like waymo, which still is location dependent. i think AGI will take decades but sooner will be some special cases that are effectively the same

AGI is special. Because one day AI can start improving itself autonomously. At this point singularity occurs and nobody knows what will happen. When human started to improve himself, we built the civilisation, we became a super-predator, we dried out seas and changed climate of the entire planet. We extinguished entire species of animals and adapted other species for our use. Huge changes. AI could bring changes of g…

We’re in fact adding more water to the seas, not drying them out.

Re: GPT-5 is behind schedule

#662

Post by nikvaes »

fooker wrote: post #653
vbezhenar wrote: post #652

Earlier quoted context omitted.

AGI is special. Because one day AI can start improving itself autonomously. At this point singularity occurs and nobody knows what will happen. When human started to improve himself, we built the civilisation, we became a super-predator, we dried out seas and changed climate of the entire planet. We extinguished entire species of animals and adapted other species for our use. Huge changes. AI could bring changes of g…

> we dried out seas When did we do this ?

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Flevoland used to be (part of) a sea.

Re: GPT-5 is behind schedule

#663

Post by signatoremo »

discreteevent wrote: post #589
TeMPOraL wrote: post #543

Earlier quoted context omitted.

So LLMs are unreliable experts, okay. They're still useful if you understand their particular flavor of unreliability (basically, they're way too enthusiastic) - but more importantly, I bet you have exactly zero human experts on speed dial. Most people don't even know any experts personally, much less have one they could call for help on demand. Meanwhile, the unreliable, occasionally tripping pseudo-experts named GP…

> Most people don't even know any experts personally, much less have one they could call for help on demand. Most people can read original sources.

Which sources? How do I know I can trust the sources that I found?

Re: GPT-5 is behind schedule

#664

Post by weatherlite »

palata wrote: post #592
foolfoolz wrote: post #294

Earlier quoted context omitted.

AGI will arrive like self driving cars. it’s not that you will wake up one day and we have it. cars gained auto-braking, parallel parking, cruise control assist. and over a long time you get to something like waymo, which still is location dependent. i think AGI will take decades but sooner will be some special cases that are effectively the same

What makes you believe that AGI will happen, as opposed to all the beliefs that other people have had in history? Tons of people have "predicted" the next evolution of technology, and most of the time it ends up not happening, right?

To me (not OP) it's ChatGPT 4 , it at least made me realize it's quite possible and even quite soon that we reach AGI. Far from guaranteed, but seems quite possible.

Re: GPT-5 is behind schedule

#665

Post by dartos »

kmoser wrote: post #442
dartos wrote: post #385

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I don’t think that’s true for AGI. AGI is the holy grail of technology. A technology so advanced that not only does it subsume all other technology, but it is able to improve itself. Truly general intelligence like that will either exist or not. And the instant it becomes public, the world will have changed overnight (maybe the span of a year) Note: I don’t think statistical models like these will get us there.

> A technology so advanced that not only does it subsume all other technology, but it is able to improve itself. The problem is, a computer has no idea what "improve" means unless a human explains it for every type of problem. And of course a human will have to provide guidelines about how long to think about the problem overall, which avenues to avoid because they aren't relevant to a particular case, etc. In other…

> The problem is, a computer has no idea what "improve" means unless a human explains it for every type of problem

Not currently.

I don’t really think AGI is coming anytime soon, but that doesn’t seem like a real reason.

If we ever found a way to formalize what intelligence _is_ we could probably write a program emulating it.

We just don’t even have a good understanding of what being intelligent even means.

> The best we'll get, I believe, is an AGI that can optimize itself within a few narrow problem domains

By definition, that isn’t AGI.

Re: GPT-5 is behind schedule

#666

Post by niemandhier »

ithadtobe119 wrote: post #638
atonse wrote: post #457

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Same here. The ability to “talk to an expert” about any topic I’m curious about and ask very specific questions has been invaluable to me. It reminds me of being a kid and asking my grandpa a million questions, like how light bulbs worked, or what was inside his radio, or how do we have day and night. And before anyone talks about accuracy or hallucinations, these conversations usually are treated as starting off poi…

(throwaway account because of what I'm about to say, but it needs to be said) While my main use case for LLMs is coding just like most people here, there are lots of areas that are being ignored. Did you know llama 3.X models have been trained as psychotherapists? It's been invaluable to dump and discuss feelings with it in ways I wouldn't trust any regular person. When real therapists also cost more than what people…

> It's so interesting that the porn industry is usually on the forefront of innovation, adopting blueray and hddvd and whatnot before anyone else, but they're largely asleep on this

Isn’t that the result of major credit card companies banning certain uses, thus pruning branches from the tree of possible futures ?

What we need is digital central bank money in some form, to get rid of that type of censorship.

Re: GPT-5 is behind schedule

#667

Post by zppln »

fooker wrote: post #653
vbezhenar wrote: post #652

Earlier quoted context omitted.

AGI is special. Because one day AI can start improving itself autonomously. At this point singularity occurs and nobody knows what will happen. When human started to improve himself, we built the civilisation, we became a super-predator, we dried out seas and changed climate of the entire planet. We extinguished entire species of animals and adapted other species for our use. Huge changes. AI could bring changes of g…

> we dried out seas When did we do this ?

Depending on your definition of sea:

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Aral_Sea

Re: GPT-5 is behind schedule

#668

Post by madmask »

FergusArgyll wrote: post #557
superultra wrote: post #489

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I give AI a “water cooler chat” level of veracity, which means it’s about as true as chatting with a coworker at a water cooler when that used to happen. Which is to say if I just need to file the information away as a “huh” it’s fine, but if I need to act on it or cite it, I need to do deeper research.

Yes, so often I see/hear people asking "But how can you trust it?!" I'm asking it a question about social dynamics in the USSR, what's the worst thing that'll happen?! I'll get the wrong impression? What are people using this for? are you building a nuclear reactor where every mistake is catastrophic? Almost none of my interactions with LLMs "Matter", they are things I'm curious about, if 10 out of 100 things I learn…

I try hard not to pollute my learning with falsehoods. Like I really hate spending time learning bs, not knowing is way better than knowing something wrong.

Re: GPT-5 is behind schedule

#669

Post by anshumankmr »

netdevphoenix wrote: post #640
atonse wrote: post #457

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Same here. The ability to “talk to an expert” about any topic I’m curious about and ask very specific questions has been invaluable to me. It reminds me of being a kid and asking my grandpa a million questions, like how light bulbs worked, or what was inside his radio, or how do we have day and night. And before anyone talks about accuracy or hallucinations, these conversations usually are treated as starting off poi…

> The ability to “talk to an expert” about any topic I’m curious about and ask very specific questions has been invaluable to me. It is dangerous to assume that LLMs are experts on any topic. With or without quotes. You are getting a super fast journalist intern with a huge memory but inability to reason critically, lacking understanding about anything and huge unreliability when it comes to answering questions (you…

They have tried to address it with the help of o1 or o3 model at least to help it understand and reason better than before, but one of the quotes my manager says with regards to these is to trust it but verify it also.

Re: GPT-5 is behind schedule

#670

Post by atq2119 »

ithadtobe119 wrote: post #638
atonse wrote: post #457

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Same here. The ability to “talk to an expert” about any topic I’m curious about and ask very specific questions has been invaluable to me. It reminds me of being a kid and asking my grandpa a million questions, like how light bulbs worked, or what was inside his radio, or how do we have day and night. And before anyone talks about accuracy or hallucinations, these conversations usually are treated as starting off poi…

(throwaway account because of what I'm about to say, but it needs to be said) While my main use case for LLMs is coding just like most people here, there are lots of areas that are being ignored. Did you know llama 3.X models have been trained as psychotherapists? It's been invaluable to dump and discuss feelings with it in ways I wouldn't trust any regular person. When real therapists also cost more than what people…

> 60% of gen Z men are single, 30% women

I always do a double take when I read such statistics. How can they possibly add up? Are gen Z men considered particularly undesirable leading to lots of relationships with large age gaps? Is there a ridiculously large overhang of gay women (over men)? Is there a huge number of men with multiple partners?

These gender disparities are difficult enough to believe when they come to sexual relations, it gets even harder when talking about relationships.

I guess what I'm saying is: I don't believe those numbers as stated and would be interested in an explanation or at least a source.

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