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GPT-5 is behind schedule

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Re: GPT-5 is behind schedule

#641
post #61

Earlier quoted context omitted.

We do the same (all requests go to o1, sonnet and gemini and we store the results for later to compare) automatically for our research: Claude always wins. Even with specific prompting on both platforms. Especially frontend it seems o1 really is terrible.

Claude is trained on principles. GPT is trained on billions of edge cases. Which student do you prefer?

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Re: GPT-5 is behind schedule

#642

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It would seem you don't care too much about verifying its output or about its correctness. If you did, it wouldn't take you just an hour. I guess you'll let correctness be someone else's problem.

Your wild assumptions and snarky accusations are unnecessary. The library is for me to use; there isn't a "someone else" for me to pass problems onto. I then did what I usually do — start writing real code with it ASAP, because real code is how you find real problems. I developed the library interactively, one API call at a time, in a manner akin to pair programming. Code quality was significantly better than I'd exp…

I think many here think they are Claude Shannon himself so using something like Claude is just below such a genius.

Re: GPT-5 is behind schedule

#643

Earlier quoted context omitted.

That's the point being made. It's transformed robotics research, yes, but it both remains to see whether it will have a truly transformative effect on the field as experienced by people outside academia (I think this is quite probable) and more pointedly when .

I think it's impossible to spend a lot of time with these models without believing robotics is fundamentally about to transform. Even the most sophisticated versions of robotic logic pre-LLM/VLM feel utterly trivial compared to what even rudimentary applications of these large models can accomplish.

> have transformed robotics

When questioned:

> believing robotics is fundamentally about to transform

These are not even remotely the same thing. Something that has happened already and is verifiable fact is not the same thing as your opinion, even if your opinion is based on a lot of sound arguments and reasoning.

Very tiresome to read so many claims of fact based on opinion of what will happen in the future.

Re: GPT-5 is behind schedule

#644
post #113

"OpenAI’s is called GPT-4, the fourth LLM the company has developed since its 2015 founding." - that sentence doesn't fill me with confidence in the quality of the rest of the article, sadly.

> Several months later, Google launched the most viral new AI application of the year, called NotebookLM

When I read this I was honestly confused. I had never heard of NotebookLM before.

Re: GPT-5 is behind schedule

#645
post #457

I'm sure the debate over the definition of AGI is important and will continue for a while, but... I can't care about it anymore. Between Perplexity searching and summarizing, Claude explaining, and qwen (and other tools) coding, I'm already as happy as can be with whatever you want to call this level of intelligence. Just today I used a completely local AI research tool, based on Ollama. It worked great. Maybe it won…

Same here. The ability to “talk to an expert” about any topic I’m curious about and ask very specific questions has been invaluable to me. It reminds me of being a kid and asking my grandpa a million questions, like how light bulbs worked, or what was inside his radio, or how do we have day and night. And before anyone talks about accuracy or hallucinations, these conversations usually are treated as starting off poi…

The ability to "talk to an expert" on any topic would indeed have been very useful. Sadly, we have the ability to talk to something which tries very very hard to appear as an expert despite knowing nothing about the subject. A human who knows some things pretty well but will talk about stuff they don't know with the same certainty and authority as they walk about stuff they know is a worthless conversation partner. In my experience,"AI" is that but significantly worse.

Re: GPT-5 is behind schedule

#646
post #457

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Same here. The ability to “talk to an expert” about any topic I’m curious about and ask very specific questions has been invaluable to me. It reminds me of being a kid and asking my grandpa a million questions, like how light bulbs worked, or what was inside his radio, or how do we have day and night. And before anyone talks about accuracy or hallucinations, these conversations usually are treated as starting off poi…

(throwaway account because of what I'm about to say, but it needs to be said) While my main use case for LLMs is coding just like most people here, there are lots of areas that are being ignored. Did you know llama 3.X models have been trained as psychotherapists? It's been invaluable to dump and discuss feelings with it in ways I wouldn't trust any regular person. When real therapists also cost more than what people…

While I empathize with the therapeutic effects, wouldn't this create even more powerful echo chambers? May be so many men and women of your generation are single because of already established echo chambers.

It's in our nature to crave outside acceptance of who we are. But may be taken to extreme, when we stop being wanting to be challenged at all we could lose touch with reality, society...

Re: GPT-5 is behind schedule

#647
post #558

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It has replaced ~50% of my Google searches.

Yes but it also hasn't been attacked by ads yet. Google doesn't suck for lack of search results, it sucks because of ads. Imagine asking chatgpt to tell you about slopes in Colorado, and the first five answers are about how awesome North Face is and how you can order from them. You probably wouldn't use it as much.

Does ChatGPT need ads, I feel as though people are willing to pay for the service much more than people are willing to pay for a Google search.

Re: GPT-5 is behind schedule

#648
post #610

So the team I lead does a lot of research around all the “plumbing” around LLMs. Both technical and from a product-market perspectives. What I’ve learned is that for the most part that AI revolution is not going to be because of PHD-level LLMs. It will be because people are better equipped to use the high-schooler level LLMs to do their work more efficiently. We have some knowledge graph experiments where LLMs contin…

Honestly I wish you people would stop forcing this "AI revolution" on us. It's not good. It's not useful. It's not creating value. It's not "another team member"; other team members have their own minds with their own ideas and their own opinions. Your autocomplete takes my attention away from what I want to write and replaces it with what you want me to write. We don't want it.

Re: GPT-5 is behind schedule

#649

Earlier quoted context omitted.

When you think about it it's astounding how much energy this technology consumes versus a human brain which runs at ~20W [1]. [1] https://hypertextbook.com/facts/2001/JacquelineLing.shtml

20w for 20 years to answer questions slowly and error-prone at the level of a 30B model. An additional 10 years with highly trained supervision and the brain might start contributing original work.

Multiply that by billion, because only very few individuals of entire populations can contribute original work.

Re: GPT-5 is behind schedule

#650
post #457

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Same here. The ability to “talk to an expert” about any topic I’m curious about and ask very specific questions has been invaluable to me. It reminds me of being a kid and asking my grandpa a million questions, like how light bulbs worked, or what was inside his radio, or how do we have day and night. And before anyone talks about accuracy or hallucinations, these conversations usually are treated as starting off poi…

> The ability to “talk to an expert” about any topic I’m curious about and ask very specific questions has been invaluable to me. It is dangerous to assume that LLMs are experts on any topic. With or without quotes. You are getting a super fast journalist intern with a huge memory but inability to reason critically, lacking understanding about anything and huge unreliability when it comes to answering questions (you…

It's scary to think that we are moving into this direction: I can see how in the next few years politicians and judges will use LLMs as neutral experts.

And all in the hand of a few big tech corporations...

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