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Ask HN: Predictions for 2025?

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Re: Ask HN: Predictions for 2025?

#321

Post by qwertox »

huijzer wrote: post #241
standeven wrote: post #154

-USA stops supporting Ukraine war efforts and Ukraine is forced to cede large portions of land to Russia, creating a DMZ along vast stretches of the new border. -Expanded land use restrictions and federal tariffs against solar and wind, resulting from pressure from fossil fuel lobbyists and the new head of the department of energy. -Another CEO is shot. -Crypto has a major correction; bitcoin finishes the year well u…

> USA stops supporting Ukraine war efforts and Ukraine is forced to cede large portions of land to Russia, creating a DMZ along vast stretches of the new border. Some GDP numbers to put things in perspective (source: tradingeconomics.com). Ukraine: $0.2T Russia: $2T United States: $27T European Union: $18T So even if you drop the US, only the EU should be sufficient. Russia More specifically, I saw estimates that Rus…

> If 20% of your economy is busy throwing ordnance at someone else sounds pretty unsustainable, then you are probably right.

The bigger harm Russia is putting onto itself is its inability to take part in the AI race. They've left the battle over to the US and China, while the EU at least isn't idling.

If they wouldn't have started the war and have at least pretended to be good friends, they could have used their vast amounts of energy resources to run huge datacenters (which they could then have used to start a war). Worst move ever made by a ruler.

The US and China are both profiting from this war.

Re: Ask HN: Predictions for 2025?

#322

Post by mrweasel »

kypro wrote: post #105

An interesting prediction is one that is predictive of something impactful and correctly predicts something which is currently significantly under weighted by others. Given this I'll say that 2025 is going to be a significant year geopolitically and economically for Western Europe. Social unrest is rising here, especially around the topic of immigration, and countries like France and the UK are currently on a path to…

> As someone living in Europe right now though I am worried.

Im optimistic, we're only one major negative event/disaster away from the EU members rallying behind the EU. It doesn't look good right now, but the right wing anti EU crowed normally aren't good at taking responsibility and they will hand over problems to Bruxelles as soon as things get a bit spicy. And I don't think the EU is too bad at making the right call, in the end.

Re: Ask HN: Predictions for 2025?

#323

Post by pjc50 »

Teever wrote: post #235
standeven wrote: post #154

-USA stops supporting Ukraine war efforts and Ukraine is forced to cede large portions of land to Russia, creating a DMZ along vast stretches of the new border. -Expanded land use restrictions and federal tariffs against solar and wind, resulting from pressure from fossil fuel lobbyists and the new head of the department of energy. -Another CEO is shot. -Crypto has a major correction; bitcoin finishes the year well u…

I wonder if the next CEO will be shot or taken down by drone. I think it's very likely that in 2025 we will see the first North American assassination by drone.

Nah, has to be shooting. Guns are politically protected and the mass shooting is a traditional American ritual. They've not even discovered the primitive technology of the car bomb.

Re: Ask HN: Predictions for 2025?

#324

Post by rapsey »

bigstrat2003 wrote: post #216
IAmGraydon wrote: post #164

Earlier quoted context omitted.

>Over the last 4 months I've moved most of my investments to gold, trading cards, BTC, wine, land and rare earth. And you believe that in an economic crisis, people are going to want to buy these things?

I have a family member who holds onto gold and silver currency because he believes the USD is going to collapse someday. I've raised the argument you made with him, and he admits that such currency won't be useful in the midst of the crisis. He believes it'll be useful in the rebuilding period afterwards, though. I guess time will tell.

Gold is completely valid form of preserving wealth. Massive USD devaluation results is skyrocketing prices of gold. Why people think this leads to a mad max world I don't know. If USD is worthless, it just means people will start using some other currency.

Re: Ask HN: Predictions for 2025?

#325

Post by rapsey »

IAmGraydon wrote: post #164
andrewinardeer wrote: post #87

Earlier quoted context omitted.

This 100%. The monstrous debt storm just over the horizon that most people can't see (or refuse to acknowledge) will hit and will hit hard. The Fed won't be able to restrain or lessen it with policies and blunt instruments at their disposal. Over the last 4 months I've moved most of my investments to gold, trading cards, BTC, wine, land and rare earth.

>Over the last 4 months I've moved most of my investments to gold, trading cards, BTC, wine, land and rare earth. And you believe that in an economic crisis, people are going to want to buy these things?

You believe an economic crisis means a mad max world? Argentina is still here and has been going through an economic crisis for decades.

Re: Ask HN: Predictions for 2025?

#326

Post by mytailorisrich »

dachris wrote: post #264

Industrial civilization will continue to follow along the "Business as Usual" trajectory of the 1972 Limits to Growth publication [0]. [0] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Limits_to_Growth#Compariso...

"is a 1972 report that discussed the possibility of exponential economic and population growth with finite supply of resources"

The main problem is that for many reasons people tend to focus on the economic growth part while the population growth part is the killer.

Re: Ask HN: Predictions for 2025?

#327

Post by mranderson_neo »

AI will wipe out 80% of jobs. People will starve for employment. Unemployment rates will be highest in History, even more than war times. There will be a general purposelessness among youngsters because of this. And it will create a lot of social issues and unrest in the world

Re: Ask HN: Predictions for 2025?

#328

Post by paul7986 »

netdevphoenix wrote: post #299
paul7986 wrote: post #168

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I think Open AI will release a GPT phone and the UX is built around your phone being your personal AI assistant. When you pick it up it's like you are always on a Facetime call with your AI personal assistant. You can skin your AI personal assistant how they look .. to look like a celebrity to a deceased friend or relative whose always there to help & guide you through your day (get things done for you, your knowlegd…

Calling a technology boring is such an odd thing. Is a screwdriver boring and stale? Are microwaves boring and stale? The expectation of getting regular dopamine rushes from new smartphone features is not healthy

Ah ive used the chatGPT iPhone app frequently as well when driving to get things done and learn things through voice chat. In doing so i want that same experience from Siri and more, but Siri is dumb as ever. She pales in comparison to an app (GPT) running on Apple's iPhone, so to me GPT has made Siri stale and boring.

I use GPT frequently and it has made me think how I want an AI Phone to be; envision what i think (its subjective) would be a new phone UX paradigm that knocks peoples socks off. Thus the iPhone is far from what I've envisioned so further & subjectively its outdated/stale/boring.

Basically you'd have the movie H.E.R. in your pocket but the facetime video you talk to is of a skin of whoever you like it to be living or deceased. Having your personal AI assistant as a deceased love one who still guides/helps you through daily life might be a game/world changing use of AI or possibly a terrible idea.

Re: Ask HN: Predictions for 2025?

#329

Post by thomascountz »

Ruby and Rails will continue to grow in notoriety thanks to improvements in YJIT, GC, and Ractor/Fibers and the reemergence of SQLite as a production-grade tool.

GenAI tools will "replace" developers in the same way that no/low code tools allowed anyone to make an app. These tools will be tied to specific vendors, meaning you can completely embed with AWS/Google/OpenAI as an LLM app platform, or hire that developer to build the app. Developers who augment their tooling with LLMs will learn faster and become stronger generalists overall. Grow-fast companies will hire less than otherwise, but subject matter experts will keep the lights on and those who can reach across bureaucracies to get things done will remain.

Consumer appetite for products using LLMs for traditional workflows will tarnish: chat bots and human-computer interfaces will frustrate but novel applications like improved search and last-mile customization might take hold: "AI powered" will leave marketing lexicon for segments with consumers who want more privacy and who just want to buy new shoes online.

We won't see the return of high-demand positions with high pay and lots of perks. Companies have been incentivized and permitted to run lean and increase performance demands from remaining staff. Teams have been understaffed for months, but growth remains steady.

Re: Ask HN: Predictions for 2025?

#330

Post by mytailorisrich »

huijzer wrote: post #241
standeven wrote: post #154

-USA stops supporting Ukraine war efforts and Ukraine is forced to cede large portions of land to Russia, creating a DMZ along vast stretches of the new border. -Expanded land use restrictions and federal tariffs against solar and wind, resulting from pressure from fossil fuel lobbyists and the new head of the department of energy. -Another CEO is shot. -Crypto has a major correction; bitcoin finishes the year well u…

> USA stops supporting Ukraine war efforts and Ukraine is forced to cede large portions of land to Russia, creating a DMZ along vast stretches of the new border. Some GDP numbers to put things in perspective (source: tradingeconomics.com). Ukraine: $0.2T Russia: $2T United States: $27T European Union: $18T So even if you drop the US, only the EU should be sufficient. Russia More specifically, I saw estimates that Rus…

The war in Ukraine is rarely analysed in the media, which cover focusses public opinion on superficial and emotional readings (one might say this is organised propaganda).

Why are the different players acting the way they are and what are their interests? These are the interesing questions.

So far the war seems to have served US interests quite well with the US appearing to be the one clear winner. Perhaps a way to estimate next moves is to guess how things can eveolve from now and which scenarios serve the US' interests best. If they don't see further gains they might decide to freeze the situation but I doubt they would want anything to be seem as a Russian victory (though it'd be hard not to at this point).

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