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Ask HN: Predictions for 2025?

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Re: Ask HN: Predictions for 2025?

#241

Post by huijzer »

standeven wrote: post #154

-USA stops supporting Ukraine war efforts and Ukraine is forced to cede large portions of land to Russia, creating a DMZ along vast stretches of the new border. -Expanded land use restrictions and federal tariffs against solar and wind, resulting from pressure from fossil fuel lobbyists and the new head of the department of energy. -Another CEO is shot. -Crypto has a major correction; bitcoin finishes the year well u…

> USA stops supporting Ukraine war efforts and Ukraine is forced to cede large portions of land to Russia, creating a DMZ along vast stretches of the new border.

Some GDP numbers to put things in perspective (source: tradingeconomics.com).

Ukraine: $0.2T

Russia: $2T

United States: $27T

European Union: $18T

So even if you drop the US, only the EU should be sufficient. Russia

More specifically, I saw estimates that Russia spends about 20% of its GDP on the war. This is sort of in line with estimates from the second world war where numbers, from the top of my head, went up to 40% or higher. If 20% of your economy is busy throwing ordnance at someone else sounds pretty unsustainable, then you are probably right. Inflation in Russia is now at about 20% to 30% [1].

And the kicker is that the EU only has to spend about 2% to match Russia's numbers. Long-term it's just a losing proposition for Russia. Their economy is tanking while the rest of the West just gets stronger on an exponential rate. Even if the EU would spend twice as much as Russia, then that sounds perfectly sustainable for the EU.

Re: Ask HN: Predictions for 2025?

#242

Post by dataviz1000 »

aidenn0 wrote: post #25

I'm going to get older and gain weight.

aidenn0 goes to gym, buys a 10 day pass, and starts using the machines on the lowest weight after watching a series of Youtube videos on how to safely use the equipment. After increase the weight every few weeks because it has become too easy, aidenn0 has washboard abs that get shown off at the beach or pool in summer 2025.

lol

Re: Ask HN: Predictions for 2025?

#243

Post by wiseowise »

meiraleal wrote: post #237
mongol wrote: post #233

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Ukraine will not cede land to Russia. What is likely though is a frozen conflict along the conflict lines.

In Brazil we have a famous saying, not related to wars but football, "já combinou com os Russos?" or in literal translation, "Did you already check with the Russians?".

Ukraine won’t ever cede these territories. Whether on a field of battle, or diplomacy table, this war will continue for decades.

Re: Ask HN: Predictions for 2025?

#244

Post by timthelion »

mikewarot wrote: post #122

Cold fusion turns out to part of the physics repressed since the 1950s, and progress begins the path to give everyone their own personal megawatt of clean energy. Disclosure actually happens, and it turns out we're not alone in the Universe. BitGrid turns out to be the most efficient way to bring Petaflops to the masses, it's then disappeared as "born secret" and you never hear of it again. Someone figures out an eff…

bitgrid is cool! https://github.com/mikewarot/Bitgrid

Re: Ask HN: Predictions for 2025?

#245

Post by dsab »

meiraleal wrote: post #237
mongol wrote: post #233

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Ukraine will not cede land to Russia. What is likely though is a frozen conflict along the conflict lines.

In Brazil we have a famous saying, not related to wars but football, "já combinou com os Russos?" or in literal translation, "Did you already check with the Russians?".

What is the meaning of this term? I am not native english speaker

Re: Ask HN: Predictions for 2025?

#246

Post by solidr53 »

1. AI regulation becomes fragmented and messy as different jurisdictions implement contradictory rules. The EU's AI Act creates a "Brussels effect" but China and the US take divergent approaches, creating headaches for global tech companies.

2. "AI-free" becomes a marketing term like "organic." Premium services start advertising human-only customer service, human-written content, and AI-free creative work. A certification industry emerges around this.

3. Climate tech sees a boom in investment as extreme weather events continue to drive home the urgency. Particular focus on grid-scale energy storage and carbon capture technologies.

4. The "nearshoring" trend accelerates, with Mexico and Eastern Europe becoming major manufacturing hubs as companies seek alternatives to China while staying relatively close to major markets.

5. The first mainstream consumer AR glasses hit the market, but like early smartphones, they're clunky and limited. The real impact is in industrial and professional applications.

6. Remote work stabilizes at a new equilibrium: most tech companies settle into a hybrid model with 2-3 office days per week. Fully remote becomes less common as companies optimize for "collaboration days."

7. The web3/crypto world pivots hard toward "real world assets" and practical financial applications, moving away from speculation. Smart contract platforms become boring but useful infrastructure.

8. A major cybersecurity crisis involving AI models leads to a fundamental rethinking of model deployment and security practices. "Model poisoning" becomes the new ransomware.

9. The shortage of high-end GPUs starts to ease as new fabs come online, but the industry faces a new bottleneck in networking equipment and specialized AI accelerators.

10. Traditional higher education faces a crisis as employers increasingly accept alternative credentials and bootcamps. Several mid-tier universities merge or shut down.

- Claude | when asked for hacker news style prediction. I agree with most predictions.

Re: Ask HN: Predictions for 2025?

#247

Post by bruce511 »

redundantly wrote: post #220
bruce511 wrote: post #107

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I agree with the rest, but not necessarily investments collapsing. It seems to me that the incoming administration will be friendly to business, gutting consumer and environmental protections. Assuming tarrifs happen, there will be price hikes. And if there are general price hikes it's easy (and sometimes necessary) to hike your own prices even if you're not directly affected. This will improve profits (at least in t…

> It seems to me that the incoming administration will be friendly to business Friendly to some businesses. Stocks aren't the only investments people make. Their own small businesses, homes and other property, crypto, etc.

Yes, for investments here I'm referring to financial investments.

Generally I think housing is flat, maybe coming down if interest rates go up, or as affordability comes down. (Housing is not really an investment though, but that's a topic for another time.)

Individually for small business, there may well be winners and lovers, but that's true for any administration change. For example if your business is say solar installations then you are vulnerable (or benefit from) govt policy.

Most businesses (even small ones) can jack up prices in an inflationary environment without too much pushback.

Crypto - I'm not qualified to comment on that, but it seems like it'll likely go up in the short term. (Reinforcing why it's a terrible currency.)

Re: Ask HN: Predictions for 2025?

#249

Post by cm2187 »

huijzer wrote: post #241
standeven wrote: post #154

-USA stops supporting Ukraine war efforts and Ukraine is forced to cede large portions of land to Russia, creating a DMZ along vast stretches of the new border. -Expanded land use restrictions and federal tariffs against solar and wind, resulting from pressure from fossil fuel lobbyists and the new head of the department of energy. -Another CEO is shot. -Crypto has a major correction; bitcoin finishes the year well u…

> USA stops supporting Ukraine war efforts and Ukraine is forced to cede large portions of land to Russia, creating a DMZ along vast stretches of the new border. Some GDP numbers to put things in perspective (source: tradingeconomics.com). Ukraine: $0.2T Russia: $2T United States: $27T European Union: $18T So even if you drop the US, only the EU should be sufficient. Russia More specifically, I saw estimates that Rus…

That's true but apart from Poland, all large EU countries have anaemic weapon production and diverted all their military spending into social programs decades ago, which they cannot reverse. They are at their budget deficit limits and are all in territory where if they increase tax rates, tax proceeds go down (along with growth and employment). So the reality is that I don't think there is any chance the EU is a substitute for the US in term of ukraine support.

Re: Ask HN: Predictions for 2025?

#250

Post by Lionga »

quantisan wrote: post #72

Previous years: 2024: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=38777115 (the rest of this list is copied from https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=38779963 ) 2023: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=34125628 2022: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=29746236 2021: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=25594068 2020: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=21802596 2019: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=18753859 2018:…

betting on the opposite of what HN predicts seems like a pretty safe bet if you read the old threads.
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