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GPT-5 is behind schedule

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Re: GPT-5 is behind schedule

#531

Post by Jensson »

ramesh31 wrote: post #522
ferminaut wrote: post #440

Earlier quoted context omitted.

the context limits on google are nuts! Being able to pump 2 million tokens in and having it cost $0 is pretty crazy rn. Cline makes it seamless to switch between APIs and isnt trying to shoehorn their SAAS AI into a custom vscode (looking at you cursor)

>the context limits on google are nuts! Being able to pump 2 million tokens in and having it cost $0 is pretty crazy rn. What's the catch though? I was looking at Gemini recently and it seemed too good to be true.

Google inference is a lot cheaper since they have their own hardware so they don't have to pay licensing to NVIDIA, thus their free tier can give you much more than others.

Other than that the catch is like all other free tiers, it is marketing and can be withdrawn at any moment to get you to pay after you are used to their product.

Re: GPT-5 is behind schedule

#532

Post by jval43 »

patcon wrote: post #512
croes wrote: post #479

Earlier quoted context omitted.

How do you know the answers are correct? More than once I got eloquent answer that are completely wrong.

There's something here that I feel is pretty deep, though offensive for some minds: What is the actual consequence of being wrong? Of not getting right the base reality of a situation? Usually, stasis is the enemy that is much great than false information. If people with 90% truth can take a step forward in the world, even if they mistakenly think they have 100% truth, what does it matter? They're learning more and a…

Incorrect information by itself is at best useless. Incorrect information that is thought to be correct is outright dangerous. Objective truth is crucial to science and progress.

We've come too far since the age of enlightenment to just give it all up.

Re: GPT-5 is behind schedule

#533

Post by ncallaway »

keenmaster wrote: post #419
wongarsu wrote: post #342

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The idea of the singularity presumes that running the AGI is either free or trivially cheap compared to what it can do, so we are fine expending compute to let the AGI improve itself. That may eventually be true, but it's unlikely to be true for the first generation of AGI. The first AGI will be a research project that's completely uneconomical to run for actual tasks because humans will just be orders of magnitude c…

If the first AGI is a very uneconomical system with human intelligence but knowledge of literally everything and the capability to work 24/7, then it is not human equivalent. It will have human intelligence, superhuman knowledge, superhuman stamina, and complete devotion to the task at hand. We really need to start building those nuclear power plants. Many of them.

> complete devotion to the task at hand.

Sounds like an alignment problem. Complete devotion to a task is rarely what humans actually want. What if the task at hand turns out to be the wrong task?

Re: GPT-5 is behind schedule

#534

Post by 1propionyl »

aprilthird2021 wrote: post #520
anshulbhide wrote: post #510

I don't really care. I had to come up with a proposal to build a new R&D centre recently. To provide context on what our company does, I wrote a web scraper to scrape our own website (faster than going to IT) using Replit Agent and then fed that into O1 as context to come up with the proposal. In less than an hour. There is no going back.

both you and another highlynupvoted poster have said some versioj "never going back" or "dont want to go back" or "the tools that exist now are already insane" And while I'm happy for you, I don't see the relevance? this post was not about "going back" or "stopping the use of AI tools" at all?

Presumably they meant "never going to back to not including these tools in my daily workflow".

Re: GPT-5 is behind schedule

#535

Post by debesyla »

fzeindl wrote: post #491
brookst wrote: post #480

Earlier quoted context omitted.

How do you address this problem with people? More than once a real live person has told me something that was wrong,

You can divide your approach to asking questions with people (and I do believe this is something people do): 1. You ask someone you can trust for facts and opinions on topics, but you keep in mind that the answer might only be right in 90% of the cases. Also people tend to tell you if the are not sure. 2. For answers you need to rely on you ask people who are legally or professionally responsible if they give you wro…

I'm not sure about your local laws, but at least in Lithuania it's completely legal to give a wrong advice (by accident, of course)... Even a notary specialist would at most get to pay a larger insurance payment for a while, because human errors falls under professional insurance.

Re: GPT-5 is behind schedule

#536

Post by NitpickLawyer »

danielbln wrote: post #507
NitpickLawyer wrote: post #487

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> It's provable; if just chaining LLMs are a particular size into agentic systems could scale indefinitely, then you could use a 1-param LLM and get AGI. You can't. QED. Perhaps I missunderstand your reply, but that has not been my experience at all. There are 3 types of "agentic" behaviour that has worked for a while for me, and I don't know how else it would work without "agents": 1. Task decomposition - this was m…

A zed user? Live that editor and the dev flow with it.

Haha, yes! I'm trying it out and been loving it so far. I found that I go there for most of my eda scripts these days. I do a lot of datasets collection and exploration, and it's amazing that I can now type one paragraph and get pretty much what it would have taken me ~30 min to code myself. Claude 3.5 is great for most exploration tasks, and the flow of "this doesn't work /terminal" + claude using prints to debug is really starting to come together.

I use zed for this, cursor for my more involved sessions and aider + vscode + continue for local stuff when I want to see how far along local models have come. Haven't tried cline yet, but heard great stuff.

Re: GPT-5 is behind schedule

#537

Post by alickz »

SamPatt wrote: post #415

I'm sure the debate over the definition of AGI is important and will continue for a while, but... I can't care about it anymore. Between Perplexity searching and summarizing, Claude explaining, and qwen (and other tools) coding, I'm already as happy as can be with whatever you want to call this level of intelligence. Just today I used a completely local AI research tool, based on Ollama. It worked great. Maybe it won…

i feel like AGI is an arbitrary line in the sand anyway

i think as humans we put too much emphasis on what intelligence means relative to ourselves, instead of relative to nature

Re: GPT-5 is behind schedule

#538

Post by Jensson »

foxglacier wrote: post #476
layer8 wrote: post #175

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Even for adults, a robot that would likely have to be close to as massive as a human being, in order to do laundry and the like, would spook me out, moving freely through my place.

You'd learn to trust it. People have pet dogs that could kill them if they wanted. As can other humans walking around your house.

People also have essentially wild beasts in their home: cats. If cats were the size of small dogs they would kill people all the time, but we love them when they are small enough so they just claw you bloody.

Since we can live with that we can live with anything that doesn't outright murder us.

Re: GPT-5 is behind schedule

#539

Post by zwnow »

atonse wrote: post #457
SamPatt wrote: post #415

I'm sure the debate over the definition of AGI is important and will continue for a while, but... I can't care about it anymore. Between Perplexity searching and summarizing, Claude explaining, and qwen (and other tools) coding, I'm already as happy as can be with whatever you want to call this level of intelligence. Just today I used a completely local AI research tool, based on Ollama. It worked great. Maybe it won…

Same here. The ability to “talk to an expert” about any topic I’m curious about and ask very specific questions has been invaluable to me. It reminds me of being a kid and asking my grandpa a million questions, like how light bulbs worked, or what was inside his radio, or how do we have day and night. And before anyone talks about accuracy or hallucinations, these conversations usually are treated as starting off poi…

Talk to an expert? You are aware of them hallucinating right?

Re: GPT-5 is behind schedule

#540

Post by overgard »

icpmacdo wrote: post #358
overgard wrote: post #301

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The article definitely has issues, but to me what's relevant is where it's published. The smart money and experts without a vested interest have been well aware LLMs are an expensive dead for over a year and have been saying as much (Gary Marcus for instance). That this is starting to enter mainstream consciousness is what's newsworthy.

Gary Marcus is continuously lambasted and not taken seriously

By whom? He seems highly credible to me, and his credentials check out, especially compared to hype men like Sam Altman. All youre doing is spreading FUD by an unnamed "they"
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