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GPT-5 is behind schedule

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Re: GPT-5 is behind schedule

#491

Post by fzeindl »

brookst wrote: post #480
croes wrote: post #479

Earlier quoted context omitted.

How do you know the answers are correct? More than once I got eloquent answer that are completely wrong.

How do you address this problem with people? More than once a real live person has told me something that was wrong,

You can divide your approach to asking questions with people (and I do believe this is something people do):

1. You ask someone you can trust for facts and opinions on topics, but you keep in mind that the answer might only be right in 90% of the cases. Also people tend to tell you if the are not sure.

2. For answers you need to rely on you ask people who are legally or professionally responsible if they give you wrong advice: doctors, lawyers, car mechanics, the police etc.

ChatGPT can‘t lose it‘s job if it informs you incorrectly.

Re: GPT-5 is behind schedule

#492

Post by superultra »

bloppe wrote: post #458
SamPatt wrote: post #415

I'm sure the debate over the definition of AGI is important and will continue for a while, but... I can't care about it anymore. Between Perplexity searching and summarizing, Claude explaining, and qwen (and other tools) coding, I'm already as happy as can be with whatever you want to call this level of intelligence. Just today I used a completely local AI research tool, based on Ollama. It worked great. Maybe it won…

At this point I think even the most bearish have to concede that LLM's are an amazing tool. But OpenAI was never supposed to be about creating tools. They're supposed to create something that can completely take over entire projects for you, not just something that can help you work on the projects faster. If they can't pull that off in the next year or two, they're gonna seriously struggle to raise the next 10B they…

I keep thinking about that Idris Elba Microsoft ad about AI about how much AI can help my business, and how both true and untrue that as is, and how much distance there is between the now and the possible promised of AI, and I imagine this is what keeps Altman up at night.

Re: GPT-5 is behind schedule

#493

Post by sollewitt »

atonse wrote: post #457
SamPatt wrote: post #415

I'm sure the debate over the definition of AGI is important and will continue for a while, but... I can't care about it anymore. Between Perplexity searching and summarizing, Claude explaining, and qwen (and other tools) coding, I'm already as happy as can be with whatever you want to call this level of intelligence. Just today I used a completely local AI research tool, based on Ollama. It worked great. Maybe it won…

Same here. The ability to “talk to an expert” about any topic I’m curious about and ask very specific questions has been invaluable to me. It reminds me of being a kid and asking my grandpa a million questions, like how light bulbs worked, or what was inside his radio, or how do we have day and night. And before anyone talks about accuracy or hallucinations, these conversations usually are treated as starting off poi…

LLMs suffer from the "Igon Value Problem" https://rationalwiki.org/wiki/Igon_Value_Problem

Similar to reading a pop sci book, you're getting an entertainment from a thing with no actual understanding of the source material rather than an education.

Re: GPT-5 is behind schedule

#494

Post by jayseattle »

SamPatt wrote: post #415

I'm sure the debate over the definition of AGI is important and will continue for a while, but... I can't care about it anymore. Between Perplexity searching and summarizing, Claude explaining, and qwen (and other tools) coding, I'm already as happy as can be with whatever you want to call this level of intelligence. Just today I used a completely local AI research tool, based on Ollama. It worked great. Maybe it won…

[dead]

Re: GPT-5 is behind schedule

#495

Post by CobrastanJorji »

brookst wrote: post #483
stingraycharles wrote: post #473

Earlier quoted context omitted.

For me the problem is that you always need to double-check this particular type of expert, as it can be confidently wrong about pretty much any topic. It's useful as a starting point, not as a definitive expert answer.

What human experts do you blindly trust without double checking?

Most human experts, when asked about their area of expertise, don't parrot what some guy said as joke on Reddit five years ago.

Most lawyers, when you ask them to write a brief, will cite only real cases.

Re: GPT-5 is behind schedule

#496

Post by K0balt »

croes wrote: post #479
atonse wrote: post #457

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Same here. The ability to “talk to an expert” about any topic I’m curious about and ask very specific questions has been invaluable to me. It reminds me of being a kid and asking my grandpa a million questions, like how light bulbs worked, or what was inside his radio, or how do we have day and night. And before anyone talks about accuracy or hallucinations, these conversations usually are treated as starting off poi…

How do you know the answers are correct? More than once I got eloquent answer that are completely wrong.

All you have to do is just remember you’re asking your uncle bob, a man of extensive usually not too inaccurate knowledge.

There’s no reason a source has to be authoritative, just because it’s a computer.

It is a bit of an adjustment, though. We are used to our machines being accurate, or failing loudly.

But, looks like the future is opinionated machines.

Re: GPT-5 is behind schedule

#497

Post by jayseattle »

dkobia wrote: post #232
t_serpico wrote: post #208

One fundamental challenge to me is that if each training run because more and more expensive, the time it takes it to learn what works/doesn't work widens. Half a billion dollars for training a model is already nuts, but if it takes 100 iterations to perfect it, you've cumulatively spent 50 billion dollars... Smaller models may actually be where rapid innovation continues simply because of tighter feedback loops. O3…

AGI is the Sisyphean task of our age. We’ll push this boulder up the mountain because we have to, even if it kills us.

[dead]

Re: GPT-5 is behind schedule

#498

Post by huxley »

brookst wrote: post #480
croes wrote: post #479

Earlier quoted context omitted.

How do you know the answers are correct? More than once I got eloquent answer that are completely wrong.

How do you address this problem with people? More than once a real live person has told me something that was wrong,

Well if you’re a sensible person, you stop treating them as subject matter expert

Re: GPT-5 is behind schedule

#499

Post by croes »

brookst wrote: post #480
croes wrote: post #479

Earlier quoted context omitted.

How do you know the answers are correct? More than once I got eloquent answer that are completely wrong.

How do you address this problem with people? More than once a real live person has told me something that was wrong,

Experience. If I recognize they give unreliable answers on a specific topic I don’t question them anymore on that topic.

If they lie on purpose I don’t ask them anything anymore.

The real experts give reliable answers, LLMs don’t.

The same question can yield different results.

Re: GPT-5 is behind schedule

#500

Post by croes »

synergy20 wrote: post #481
croes wrote: post #479

Earlier quoted context omitted.

How do you know the answers are correct? More than once I got eloquent answer that are completely wrong.

so do teachers and books, in the future we need have multiple variants to cross check

Cross check against what? AI generated texts will flood the internet and burry the real knowledge just like SEO did before. But this time the fake knowledge will be less obvious and harder to check.
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