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GPT-5 is behind schedule

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Re: GPT-5 is behind schedule

#471

Post by mistercheph »

nradov wrote: post #106
ericskiff wrote: post #25

What we can reasonably assume from statements made by insiders: They want a 10x improvement from scaling and a 10x improvement from data and algorithmic changes The sources of public data are essentially tapped Algorithmic changes will be an unknown to us until they release, but from published research this remains a steady source of improvement Scaling seems to stall if data is limited So with all of that taken toge…

There is an enormous "iceberg" of untapped non-public data locked behind paywalls or licensing agreements. The next frontier will be spending money and human effort to get access to that data, then transform it into something useful for training.

ah yes the beautiful iceberg of internal documentation, legal paperwork, and meeting notes.

the highest quality language data that exists is in the public domain

Re: GPT-5 is behind schedule

#472

Post by atonse »

1209412comb wrote: post #465
atonse wrote: post #457

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Same here. The ability to “talk to an expert” about any topic I’m curious about and ask very specific questions has been invaluable to me. It reminds me of being a kid and asking my grandpa a million questions, like how light bulbs worked, or what was inside his radio, or how do we have day and night. And before anyone talks about accuracy or hallucinations, these conversations usually are treated as starting off poi…

Semi-related but I find that sometime it just completely ruined a type of conversation. Like as in your example, I would previously asked people "how would 911 handle an US Reservation Area", and watch how my friends think and reason. To me getting a conclusive answer was not a point. Now they just copy & paste Chat GPT, no fun haha.

Yeah it can definitely be a crutch too in some situations. I notice it with my kids where they’ll want to tell me about something but then seek a video or something to show it.

Sometimes I have to say “no! just use your words to describe it! I want to hear your description”

Re: GPT-5 is behind schedule

#473

Post by stingraycharles »

atonse wrote: post #457
SamPatt wrote: post #415

I'm sure the debate over the definition of AGI is important and will continue for a while, but... I can't care about it anymore. Between Perplexity searching and summarizing, Claude explaining, and qwen (and other tools) coding, I'm already as happy as can be with whatever you want to call this level of intelligence. Just today I used a completely local AI research tool, based on Ollama. It worked great. Maybe it won…

Same here. The ability to “talk to an expert” about any topic I’m curious about and ask very specific questions has been invaluable to me. It reminds me of being a kid and asking my grandpa a million questions, like how light bulbs worked, or what was inside his radio, or how do we have day and night. And before anyone talks about accuracy or hallucinations, these conversations usually are treated as starting off poi…

For me the problem is that you always need to double-check this particular type of expert, as it can be confidently wrong about pretty much any topic.

It's useful as a starting point, not as a definitive expert answer.

Re: GPT-5 is behind schedule

#474

Post by throwup238 »

SamPatt wrote: post #415

I'm sure the debate over the definition of AGI is important and will continue for a while, but... I can't care about it anymore. Between Perplexity searching and summarizing, Claude explaining, and qwen (and other tools) coding, I'm already as happy as can be with whatever you want to call this level of intelligence. Just today I used a completely local AI research tool, based on Ollama. It worked great. Maybe it won…

Amen. Everyone is talking about plateaus and diminishing returns on training but I don’t care one bit. I get that this is a startup focused forum and the financial sustainability of the market players is important but I can’t wait to see what the next decade of UX improvements will be like even if model improvements slow to a crawl.

Re: GPT-5 is behind schedule

#475

Post by Sharlin »

missedthecue wrote: post #271
dkobia wrote: post #232

Earlier quoted context omitted.

AGI is the Sisyphean task of our age. We’ll push this boulder up the mountain because we have to, even if it kills us.

Do we know LLMs are the path to AGI? If they're not, we'll just end up with some neat but eye wateringly expensive LLMs.

LLMs are almost certainly not the path to AGI, that much has become clear. I doubt any expert believes they are.

Re: GPT-5 is behind schedule

#476

Post by foxglacier »

layer8 wrote: post #175
kelnos wrote: post #125

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I think it would be many decades before I'd trust a robot like that around small children or pets. Robots with that kind of movement capability, as well as the ability it pick up and move things around, will be heavy enough that a small mistake could easily kill a small child or pet.

Even for adults, a robot that would likely have to be close to as massive as a human being, in order to do laundry and the like, would spook me out, moving freely through my place.

You'd learn to trust it. People have pet dogs that could kill them if they wanted. As can other humans walking around your house.

Re: GPT-5 is behind schedule

#477

Post by IAmGraydon »

deadmutex wrote: post #450
IAmGraydon wrote: post #444

Earlier quoted context omitted.

If you're interested in the latest tools for coding, join this subreddit and you'll always be on top of it: https://www.reddit.com/r/ChatGPTCoding/ There are a lot of tools, but only a small pool of tools that are worth checking out. Cline, Continue, Windsurf, CoPilot, Cursor, and Aider are the ones that come to mind.

"ChatGPT" Coding... is it impartial? the name sorta sounds biased.

ChatGPT was the first to come along, so the subreddit was given a perhaps short-sighted name. It's now about coding with LLMs in general.

Re: GPT-5 is behind schedule

#478

Post by uludag »

SamPatt wrote: post #415

I'm sure the debate over the definition of AGI is important and will continue for a while, but... I can't care about it anymore. Between Perplexity searching and summarizing, Claude explaining, and qwen (and other tools) coding, I'm already as happy as can be with whatever you want to call this level of intelligence. Just today I used a completely local AI research tool, based on Ollama. It worked great. Maybe it won…

I'm pretty sure the plan has never been to just make these tools that make us more efficient. If AI stays at the level it's at, it would be a profound failure for companies like OpenAI. We're all benefiting from the capital being poured into these technologies now. The enshittification will come. The enshittification always comes.

Re: GPT-5 is behind schedule

#479

Post by croes »

atonse wrote: post #457
SamPatt wrote: post #415

I'm sure the debate over the definition of AGI is important and will continue for a while, but... I can't care about it anymore. Between Perplexity searching and summarizing, Claude explaining, and qwen (and other tools) coding, I'm already as happy as can be with whatever you want to call this level of intelligence. Just today I used a completely local AI research tool, based on Ollama. It worked great. Maybe it won…

Same here. The ability to “talk to an expert” about any topic I’m curious about and ask very specific questions has been invaluable to me. It reminds me of being a kid and asking my grandpa a million questions, like how light bulbs worked, or what was inside his radio, or how do we have day and night. And before anyone talks about accuracy or hallucinations, these conversations usually are treated as starting off poi…

How do you know the answers are correct?

More than once I got eloquent answer that are completely wrong.

Re: GPT-5 is behind schedule

#480

Post by brookst »

croes wrote: post #479
atonse wrote: post #457

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Same here. The ability to “talk to an expert” about any topic I’m curious about and ask very specific questions has been invaluable to me. It reminds me of being a kid and asking my grandpa a million questions, like how light bulbs worked, or what was inside his radio, or how do we have day and night. And before anyone talks about accuracy or hallucinations, these conversations usually are treated as starting off poi…

How do you know the answers are correct? More than once I got eloquent answer that are completely wrong.

How do you address this problem with people? More than once a real live person has told me something that was wrong,
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