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GPT-5 is behind schedule

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Re: GPT-5 is behind schedule

#461

Post by lumost »

bloppe wrote: post #458
SamPatt wrote: post #415

I'm sure the debate over the definition of AGI is important and will continue for a while, but... I can't care about it anymore. Between Perplexity searching and summarizing, Claude explaining, and qwen (and other tools) coding, I'm already as happy as can be with whatever you want to call this level of intelligence. Just today I used a completely local AI research tool, based on Ollama. It worked great. Maybe it won…

At this point I think even the most bearish have to concede that LLM's are an amazing tool. But OpenAI was never supposed to be about creating tools. They're supposed to create something that can completely take over entire projects for you, not just something that can help you work on the projects faster. If they can't pull that off in the next year or two, they're gonna seriously struggle to raise the next 10B they…

At this point it’s quite likely that they could pivot and just be the chatgpt company. I’ve found chatgpt-4o with web search and plugins to be more useful than o1 for most tasks.

It’s possible we’re nearing the end of the LLM race, but I doubt that’s the end of the AI story this decade, or OpenAI.

Re: GPT-5 is behind schedule

#462

Post by stravant »

atonse wrote: post #457
SamPatt wrote: post #415

I'm sure the debate over the definition of AGI is important and will continue for a while, but... I can't care about it anymore. Between Perplexity searching and summarizing, Claude explaining, and qwen (and other tools) coding, I'm already as happy as can be with whatever you want to call this level of intelligence. Just today I used a completely local AI research tool, based on Ollama. It worked great. Maybe it won…

Same here. The ability to “talk to an expert” about any topic I’m curious about and ask very specific questions has been invaluable to me. It reminds me of being a kid and asking my grandpa a million questions, like how light bulbs worked, or what was inside his radio, or how do we have day and night. And before anyone talks about accuracy or hallucinations, these conversations usually are treated as starting off poi…

One of my favorite successes was getting an LLM to write me a program to graph how I subjectively feel the heat of steam coming off of the noodles I'm pouring the water out from as a function of the ambient temperature.

I was wondering which effects were at play and the graph matched my subjective experience well.

Re: GPT-5 is behind schedule

#463

Post by stravant »

foolfoolz wrote: post #294
missedthecue wrote: post #271

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Do we know LLMs are the path to AGI? If they're not, we'll just end up with some neat but eye wateringly expensive LLMs.

AGI will arrive like self driving cars. it’s not that you will wake up one day and we have it. cars gained auto-braking, parallel parking, cruise control assist. and over a long time you get to something like waymo, which still is location dependent. i think AGI will take decades but sooner will be some special cases that are effectively the same

I disagree because AI only has to get good enough at doing a single thing: AI research.

From there things will probably go very fast. Self driving cars can't design themselves, once AI gets good enough it can

Re: GPT-5 is behind schedule

#464

Post by comp_throw7 »

kmoser wrote: post #442
dartos wrote: post #385

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I don’t think that’s true for AGI. AGI is the holy grail of technology. A technology so advanced that not only does it subsume all other technology, but it is able to improve itself. Truly general intelligence like that will either exist or not. And the instant it becomes public, the world will have changed overnight (maybe the span of a year) Note: I don’t think statistical models like these will get us there.

> A technology so advanced that not only does it subsume all other technology, but it is able to improve itself. The problem is, a computer has no idea what "improve" means unless a human explains it for every type of problem. And of course a human will have to provide guidelines about how long to think about the problem overall, which avenues to avoid because they aren't relevant to a particular case, etc. In other…

Huh? Humans are not anywhere near the limit of physical intelligence, and we have many existence proofs that we (humans) can design systems that are superhuman in various domains. "Scientific R&D" is not something that humans are even particularly well-suited to, from an evolutionary perspective.

Re: GPT-5 is behind schedule

#465

Post by 1209412comb »

atonse wrote: post #457
SamPatt wrote: post #415

I'm sure the debate over the definition of AGI is important and will continue for a while, but... I can't care about it anymore. Between Perplexity searching and summarizing, Claude explaining, and qwen (and other tools) coding, I'm already as happy as can be with whatever you want to call this level of intelligence. Just today I used a completely local AI research tool, based on Ollama. It worked great. Maybe it won…

Same here. The ability to “talk to an expert” about any topic I’m curious about and ask very specific questions has been invaluable to me. It reminds me of being a kid and asking my grandpa a million questions, like how light bulbs worked, or what was inside his radio, or how do we have day and night. And before anyone talks about accuracy or hallucinations, these conversations usually are treated as starting off poi…

Semi-related but I find that sometime it just completely ruined a type of conversation.

Like as in your example, I would previously asked people "how would 911 handle an US Reservation Area", and watch how my friends think and reason. To me getting a conclusive answer was not a point. Now they just copy & paste Chat GPT, no fun haha.

Re: GPT-5 is behind schedule

#466

Post by IAmGraydon »

mrbungie wrote: post #240
threeseed wrote: post #190

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Anecdotally Claude is just as bad as every other LLM. Step into more niche areas e.g. I am trying to use it with Scala macros and at least 90% of the time it is giving code that either (a) fails to compile or (b) is just complete gibberish. And at no point ever has it said it didn't know something.

Yep, get into any sufficiently deep niche (i.e. actually almost any non-trivial app) and the LLM magic fades off. Yeah sure you can make a pong clone in html/js and that's mainly because there the internet is full of pong clone demos. Ask how to constraint a statsmodels lineal model in some non-standard way? It will gaslight how it is possible and make you loss time in the process.

Making a pong clone by telling the LLM to make a pong clone is a cute trick that sometimes works, but that's not the way anyone who understands how to properly use these tools is using them. You don't describe and app and hope the LLM builds it correctly. You have to know how to architect an application and you use the LLM to build small pieces of code. For example, you tell it to build a function that does x, takes the inputs a, b, and c and returns z.

LLMs don't turn non-coders into coders. It gives actual coders superpowers.

Re: GPT-5 is behind schedule

#467

Post by joegibbs »

exhaze wrote: post #286
ynniv wrote: post #177

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Is it "eerie"? LeCun has been talking about it for some time, and may also be OpenAI's rumored q-star, mentioned shortly after Noam Brown (diplomacybot) joining OpenAI. You can't hill climb tokens, but you can climb manifolds.

I wasn’t aware of others attempting manifolds for this before - just something I stumbled upon independently. To me the “eerie” part is the thought of an LLM no longer using human language to reason - it’s like something out of a sci fi movie where humans encounter an alien species that thinks in a way that humans cannot even comprehend due to biological limitations. I am hopeful that progress in mechanistic interpre…

Is it really alien or is it more similar to how we think? We don't think purely in language, it's more a kind of soup of language, sounds, images, emotions and senses that we then turn into language when we communicate with each other.

Re: GPT-5 is behind schedule

#468

Post by mulmen »

missedthecue wrote: post #351
foolfoolz wrote: post #294

Earlier quoted context omitted.

AGI will arrive like self driving cars. it’s not that you will wake up one day and we have it. cars gained auto-braking, parallel parking, cruise control assist. and over a long time you get to something like waymo, which still is location dependent. i think AGI will take decades but sooner will be some special cases that are effectively the same

But maybe thses LLMs are like building bigger and bigger engines. It's not getting you closer to the self driving car.

When the engine gets large enough you have to rethink the controls. The Model T had manually controlled timing. Modern engines are so sensitive to timing that a computer does this for you. It would be impossible to build a bigger engine without this automation. To a Model T driver it would look like a machine intelligence.

Re: GPT-5 is behind schedule

#469

Post by GolfPopper »

Stevvo wrote: post #31
ericskiff wrote: post #25

What we can reasonably assume from statements made by insiders: They want a 10x improvement from scaling and a 10x improvement from data and algorithmic changes The sources of public data are essentially tapped Algorithmic changes will be an unknown to us until they release, but from published research this remains a steady source of improvement Scaling seems to stall if data is limited So with all of that taken toge…

"With o3 now public knowledge, imagine how long it’s been churning out new thinking at expert level across every field." I highly doubt that. o3 is many orders of magnitude more expensive than paying subject matter experts to create new data. It just doesn't make sense to pay six figures in compute to get o3 to make data a human could make for a few hundred dollars.

>churning out new thinking at expert level across every field

I suspect this is really, "churning out text that impresses management".

Re: GPT-5 is behind schedule

#470

Post by Sharlin »

1209412comb wrote: post #465
atonse wrote: post #457

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Same here. The ability to “talk to an expert” about any topic I’m curious about and ask very specific questions has been invaluable to me. It reminds me of being a kid and asking my grandpa a million questions, like how light bulbs worked, or what was inside his radio, or how do we have day and night. And before anyone talks about accuracy or hallucinations, these conversations usually are treated as starting off poi…

Semi-related but I find that sometime it just completely ruined a type of conversation. Like as in your example, I would previously asked people "how would 911 handle an US Reservation Area", and watch how my friends think and reason. To me getting a conclusive answer was not a point. Now they just copy & paste Chat GPT, no fun haha.

That's just the 2020s version of how Google and smartphones ruined the ages-old social pastime of arguing about trivia in a pub :P
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