GPT-5 is behind schedule • Hacker News Board

Re: GPT-5 is behind schedule

#391

Post by arthurcolle » Mon, Dec 23, 2024, 2:59 AM UTC

jazzyjackson wrote: post #376

arthurcolle wrote: post #329

Earlier quoted context omitted.

LLMs are a key piece of understanding that token sequences can trigger actions in the real world. AGI is here. You can trivially spin up a computer using agent to self improve itself to being a competent office worker

If agents can self improve why hasn't gpt4 improved itself into gpt5 yet

Agents can trivially self improve. I'd be happy to show you - contact me at arthur@distributed.systems

Why wouldn't you hand me 35 million dollars right now if I can clearly illustrate to you that I have technology you haven't seen? Edge. Maybe you know something I don't, or maybe you just haven't seen it. While loops go hard ;)

They don't need to release their internal developments to you to show that they can scale their plan - they can show incremental improvements to benchmarks. We can instruct the AI over time to get it to be superhuman, no need for any fundamental innovations anymore

Re: GPT-5 is behind schedule

#392

Post by deadfoxygrandpa » Mon, Dec 23, 2024, 2:59 AM UTC

EGreg wrote: post #344

marcus_holmes wrote: post #333

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The Singularity is caused by AI being able to design better AI. There's probably some AI startup trying to work on this at the moment, but I don't think any of the big boys are working on how to get an LLM to design a better LLM. I still like the analogy of this being a really smart lawn mower, and we're expecting it to suddenly be able to do the laundry because it gets so smart at mowing the lawn. I think LLMs are g…

I think this whole “AGI” thing is so badly defined that we may as well say we already have it. It already passes the Turing test and does well on tons of subjects. What we can start to build now is agents and integrations. Building blocks like panel of experts agents gaming things out, exploring space in a Monte Carlo Tree Search way, and remembering what works. Robots are only constrained by mechanical servos now. W…

??? how do you know cooking (!) is trivial for an llm. that doesnt make any sense

Re: GPT-5 is behind schedule

#393

Post by goatlover » Mon, Dec 23, 2024, 3:01 AM UTC

dkobia wrote: post #232

t_serpico wrote: post #208

One fundamental challenge to me is that if each training run because more and more expensive, the time it takes it to learn what works/doesn't work widens. Half a billion dollars for training a model is already nuts, but if it takes 100 iterations to perfect it, you've cumulatively spent 50 billion dollars... Smaller models may actually be where rapid innovation continues simply because of tighter feedback loops. O3…

AGI is the Sisyphean task of our age. We’ll push this boulder up the mountain because we have to, even if it kills us.

Why do we have to?

Re: GPT-5 is behind schedule

#394

Post by beefnugs » Mon, Dec 23, 2024, 3:04 AM UTC

missedthecue wrote: post #271

dkobia wrote: post #232

Earlier quoted context omitted.

AGI is the Sisyphean task of our age. We’ll push this boulder up the mountain because we have to, even if it kills us.

Do we know LLMs are the path to AGI? If they're not, we'll just end up with some neat but eye wateringly expensive LLMs.

LLMs will end up being the good human-machine interface that lets us talk to whatever AGI really looks like

(whoops expensive... will be hard pushes to make all further layers even more expensive though, capitalism will crash before this happens)

Re: GPT-5 is behind schedule

#395

Post by gkuan » Mon, Dec 23, 2024, 3:04 AM UTC

kevingadd wrote: post #192

layer8 wrote: post #183

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Counterexample: Everyone uses dishwashers. Yet I don’t think we’ll have a robot doing the dishes human-style, or even just filling up and clearing out a dishwasher, within the next decade or two, regardless of price.

Part of the tradeoff there is efficiency. I like my dishwasher because it's as good at getting things clean as I am but it does it using less water and less soap, and at scale, it takes less time too. It's just a great use case for machine automation because you can do clever stuff w/a dishwasher that's hard to replicate outside of that closed environment. I struggle to imagine a scenario where a 1-2 person household…

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Re: GPT-5 is behind schedule

#396

Post by taneq » Mon, Dec 23, 2024, 3:05 AM UTC

foolfoolz wrote: post #294

missedthecue wrote: post #271

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Do we know LLMs are the path to AGI? If they're not, we'll just end up with some neat but eye wateringly expensive LLMs.

AGI will arrive like self driving cars. it’s not that you will wake up one day and we have it. cars gained auto-braking, parallel parking, cruise control assist. and over a long time you get to something like waymo, which still is location dependent. i think AGI will take decades but sooner will be some special cases that are effectively the same

And most people will still be bike shedding about whether it’s “real intelligence” and making up increasingly insane justifications for why it’s not.

Re: GPT-5 is behind schedule

#397

Post by goatlover » Mon, Dec 23, 2024, 3:05 AM UTC

ulfw wrote: post #348

dkobia wrote: post #232

Earlier quoted context omitted.

AGI is the Sisyphean task of our age. We’ll push this boulder up the mountain because we have to, even if it kills us.

Why? Nobody asked us if we want this. Nobody has a plan what to do with humanity when there is AGI

The plan is to not pay human workers. Never mind what happens to the economy or political landscape.

Re: GPT-5 is behind schedule

#398

Post by astrange » Mon, Dec 23, 2024, 3:06 AM UTC

anticorporate wrote: post #356

dgfitz wrote: post #284

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I wonder how Russian and North Korean citizens would feel about a capitalist, representative democracy?

I think they'd have thing or two to say about living under the rule of wealthy elites. We'd do well to listen to them.

They like it. Russians can leave if they want to.

Re: GPT-5 is behind schedule

#399

Post by dartos » Mon, Dec 23, 2024, 3:07 AM UTC

coffeemug wrote: post #389

worik wrote: post #387

Earlier quoted context omitted.

If that is what AGI looks like. There may well be an upper limit on cognition (we are not really sure what cognition is - even as we do it) and it may be that human minds are close to it.

Very unlikely, for the reason that human minds evolved under extremely tight energy constraints. AI has no such limitation.

Except also energy constraints.

But I agree, there’s no reason to believe humans are the universal limit on cognitive abilities

Re: GPT-5 is behind schedule

#400

Post by adriand » Mon, Dec 23, 2024, 3:10 AM UTC

h0l0cube wrote: post #300

jprete wrote: post #277

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I think you're both right and wrong. You're right that capitalism has become a paperclip machine, but capitalism also wants AI so it can cheaply and at scale replace the human components of the machine with something that has more work capacity for fewer demands.

The problem is that the people in power will want to maintain the status quo. So the end of human labor won't naturally result in UBI – or any kind of welfare – to compensate for the loss of income, let alone afford any social mobility. But wealthy people will be able to leverage AGI to defend themselves from any uprising by the plebs. We're too busy trying to make humans irrelevant, but not asking what exactly we do…

I think the key is ensuring that “we” get to choose what society looks like in the AGI era. In the world today, even marginalized people have power. Look what happened to Assad. Look at the US - whether you believe they made the right decision or not, working class people were key to Trump’s victory, who may well institute tariffs as a way to protect working class jobs by insulating American industry from global competition. I’m not saying that will be successful, I’m saying that working class people got mad and a political change resulted.

Similarly I don’t see a world where AGI takes all the jobs and people do not respond by getting pissed off. My fear is that AGI is coupled with oppressive power structures to foreclose the possibility of a revolt. Opaque bureaucracy, total surveillance, fascist or authoritarian leaders, AI-controlled critical infrastructure, diminished and bankrupted free press, AI fake news, toxic social media…it could add up to a very dystopian outcome.

Democracies could thrive in the AGI era but we need to take many more steps to ensure we protect our societies and keep the interests of citizens paramount. One example is suggested by Harari in his most recent book, namely to ban AI bots from social media on the grounds that we should not permit AI agents to pretend to be citizens in the discussions of the public square.