How about just an updated gpt 4o with all newer data? It would go a long way. Currently it doesn't know anything since Oct 2023 (without having to do a web search).
Hard to filter out all the AI generated texts.
GPT-5 is behind schedule
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Re: GPT-5 is behind schedule
#372Earlier quoted context omitted.
Well that's the thought exercise. Is there something you can do with almost unlimited "brains" of roughly human capability but much faster, within a few days / weeks / months. Lets say you can instantiate 1 million agents, for 3 months, and each of them is roughly 100x faster than a human, that means you have the equivalent of 100 million human-brain-hours to dump into whatever you want, as long as your plans don't r…
Where does "almost unlimited" come into the picture though? I see people talking like AGI will be unlimited when it will be limited by available compute resources, and like I suggested, being 'first' might come at the cost of the war chest you'd need to access those resources. What does it take to instantiate 1 million agents? Who has that kind of money and hardware? Would they still have it if they burn everything i…
> Where does "almost unlimited" come into the picture though
>> Like let's say you have a few datacenters of compute at your disposal and the ability to instantiate millions of AGI agents - what do you have them do?
> has that kind of money and hardware?
Any hyperscaler plus most geopolitical main players. So the ones who matter.
Re: GPT-5 is behind schedule
#373Earlier quoted context omitted.
It's reasonable to ask for sources when an opinion is phrased as a fact, as GGP did. I don't see how you got that it was _unmistakably_ an opinion from that comment. There is no way to deduce by intuition alone that GPT-5 == GPT-4o. So either that person has some information the rest of us aren't privy to, or it's an opinion phrased as a fact. In either case, it deserves clarification.
That was clearly phrased like a fact, which may or may not be correct. If it had been phrased like an opinion we wouldn't be having this conversation... The problem is once you believe their fact is wrong, just say "I think you're wrong ". Innocently asking for a source as if you're still on the fence is just performative and leads to these conversations where both sides just end up talking past each other: A source…
> I just find the quality of discourse is much higher when people are direct.
Well this certainly is a lot of work to make a mountain out of a mole hill, and I'm not sure it increases the quality of discussion either.
In any case, I think saying bold shit followed up with "it's speculation, but it's OBVIOUS speculation" is worth asking for some evidence. Obvious speculation implies it's sourced from something other than personal gut feeling.
To echo a sibling comment:
> Every time someone says their speculation is "obvious" it rings every possible alarm bell for someone who has completely lost grasp of the ability to distinguish between facts and speculation.
Re: GPT-5 is behind schedule
#374Earlier quoted context omitted.
Do we know LLMs are the path to AGI? If they're not, we'll just end up with some neat but eye wateringly expensive LLMs.
AGI will arrive like self driving cars. it’s not that you will wake up one day and we have it. cars gained auto-braking, parallel parking, cruise control assist. and over a long time you get to something like waymo, which still is location dependent. i think AGI will take decades but sooner will be some special cases that are effectively the same
And sometimes you lose the ultrasonic sensors and can't parallel park like last year's model
Re: GPT-5 is behind schedule
#375> And the results of the project, dubbed Arrakis, indicated that creating GPT-5 wouldn’t go as smoothly as hoped. Quite the hubris to name the project after the desert planet of Dune, where multiple royal houses met their ruin.
And the other theme in Dune is how artificial intelligence essentially fubar’d civilization. (The Butlerian Jihad)
Ah yes, Thou shalt not make a machine in the likeness of a human mind.
Re: GPT-5 is behind schedule
#376Earlier quoted context omitted.
Do we know LLMs are the path to AGI? If they're not, we'll just end up with some neat but eye wateringly expensive LLMs.
LLMs are a key piece of understanding that token sequences can trigger actions in the real world. AGI is here. You can trivially spin up a computer using agent to self improve itself to being a competent office worker
If agents can self improve why hasn't gpt4 improved itself into gpt5 yet
Re: GPT-5 is behind schedule
#377Earlier quoted context omitted.
No. But it won't stop the industry from trying. LLMs have no real sense of truth or hard evidence of logical thinking. Even the latest models still trip up on very basic tasks. I think they can be very entertaining, sure, but not practical for many applications.
Sounds like they need further instruction
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Re: GPT-5 is behind schedule
#378Earlier quoted context omitted.
No, I'm complaining that just because GPT-4 is called GPT-4 doesn't mean it's the fourth LLM from OpenAI. Off the top of my head: GPT-2, Codex, GPT-3 in three different flavors (babbage, curie, davinci), GPT-3.5. Suggesting that GPT-4 was "fourth" simply isn't credible. Just the other day they announced a jump from o1 to o3, skipping o2 purely because it's already the name of a major telecommunications brand in Europ…
There's at least 4 major releases just in GPT4. GPT4, GPT4T, Gpt4o-Mini, GPT4o,
If we're generous the article considers versions that were significant improvements. 4o is hardly better on real-world usage (benchmarks are gamed to death) than the original 4.
Re: GPT-5 is behind schedule
#379This entire industry is something I feel like I understand 2% of and every time I make progress to get to 10% (3 months later) some massive change happens and all the terminology changes.
Re: GPT-5 is behind schedule
#380Earlier quoted context omitted.
Technically…? Does anyone here believe that the EU and Europe is the same thing? Would you find it weird if someone said that a Norwegian company was in Europe?
Many people certainly seem to! And it annoys me. I wasn’t talking about the EU, though. I was just commenting on the fact that in the UK, ‘Europe’ generally means ‘continental Europe’. > Would you find it weird if someone said that a Norwegian company was in Europe? I’d find it weird if a European did. But from Americans it’s to be expected.
> Would you find it weird if someone said that a Norwegian company was in Europe?
> I’d find it weird if a European did. But from Americans it’s to be expected.
Absolutely nothing weird about it, I'd find it very weird if they wouldn't. I'm from Europe and my social circle has people from all over Europe.
It's really just the UK which has this weird usage of Europe.