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GPT-5 is behind schedule

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Re: GPT-5 is behind schedule

#31

Post by Stevvo »

ericskiff wrote: post #25

What we can reasonably assume from statements made by insiders: They want a 10x improvement from scaling and a 10x improvement from data and algorithmic changes The sources of public data are essentially tapped Algorithmic changes will be an unknown to us until they release, but from published research this remains a steady source of improvement Scaling seems to stall if data is limited So with all of that taken toge…

"With o3 now public knowledge, imagine how long it’s been churning out new thinking at expert level across every field."

I highly doubt that. o3 is many orders of magnitude more expensive than paying subject matter experts to create new data. It just doesn't make sense to pay six figures in compute to get o3 to make data a human could make for a few hundred dollars.

Re: GPT-5 is behind schedule

#32

Post by qup »

jsheard wrote: post #30
ericskiff wrote: post #25

What we can reasonably assume from statements made by insiders: They want a 10x improvement from scaling and a 10x improvement from data and algorithmic changes The sources of public data are essentially tapped Algorithmic changes will be an unknown to us until they release, but from published research this remains a steady source of improvement Scaling seems to stall if data is limited So with all of that taken toge…

> With o3 now public knowledge, imagine how long it’s been churning out new thinking at expert level across every field. OpenAI’s next moat may be the best synthetic training set ever. Even taking OpenAI and the benchmark authors at their word they said that it is consuming at least tens of dollars per task to hit peak performance, how much would it cost to have it produce a meaningfully large training set?

That's the public API price isn't it?

Re: GPT-5 is behind schedule

#34

Post by jsheard »

qup wrote: post #32
jsheard wrote: post #30

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> With o3 now public knowledge, imagine how long it’s been churning out new thinking at expert level across every field. OpenAI’s next moat may be the best synthetic training set ever. Even taking OpenAI and the benchmark authors at their word they said that it is consuming at least tens of dollars per task to hit peak performance, how much would it cost to have it produce a meaningfully large training set?

That's the public API price isn't it?

There is no public API for o3 yet, those are the numbers they revealed in the ARC-AGI announcement. Even if they were public API prices we can't assume they're making a profit on those for as long as they're billions in the red overall every year, its entirely possible that the public API prices are less than what OpenAI is actually paying.

Re: GPT-5 is behind schedule

#35

Post by h_tbob »

anonzzzies wrote: post #9
A_D_E_P_T wrote: post #2

Counterpoint: o1-Pro is insanely good -- subjectively, it's as far above GPT4 as GPT4 was above 3. It's almost too good. Use it properly for an extended period of time, and one begins to worry about the future of one's children and the utility of their schooling. o3, by all accounts, is better still. Seems to me that things are progressing quickly enough.

Not sure what you are using it for, but it is terrible for me for coding; claude beats it always and hands down. o1 just thinks forever to come up with stuff it already tried the previous time. People say that's just prompting without pointing to real million line+ repositories or realistic apps to show how that can be improved. So I say they are making todo and hello world apps and yes, there it works really well. C…

That so weird, it’s seems like everybody here prefers Claude.

I’ve been using Claude and openai in copilot and I find even 4o seems to understand the problem better. O1 definitely seems to get it right more for me.

Re: GPT-5 is behind schedule

#37

Post by from-nibly »

omega3 wrote: post #23
diego_sandoval wrote: post #12

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Reminds me of this Louis CK joke: I was on an airplane and there was high-speed Internet on the airplane. That's the newest thing that I know exists. And I'm sitting on the plane and they go, open up your laptop, you can go on the Internet. And it's fast, and I'm watching YouTube clips. It's amazing. I'm on an airplane! And then it breaks down. And they apologize, the Internet's not working. And the guy next to me go…

People who say „it’s bullshit” are the ones that push the technological advance forward.

Not invariably. Some of those people are the ones who want to draw 7 red lines all perpendicular, some with green ink, some with transparent and one that looks like a kitten.

Re: GPT-5 is behind schedule

#38

Post by qup »

jncfhnb wrote: post #29
beacon294 wrote: post #19

Earlier quoted context omitted.

There's someone with this comment in every thread. Meanwhile, no one answers this because they are getting value. Please take the time to learn, it will give you value.

I’m a consultant. Having looked at several enterprises, there’s a lot of work being done to make a lot of things that don’t really work. The bigger the ambition, the harder they’re failing. Some well designed isolated use cases are ok. Mostly things about listening and summarizing text to aid humans. I have yet to see a successful application that is generating good content. IMO replacing the first draft of content c…

> Having looked at several enterprises, there’s a lot of work being done to make a lot of things that don’t really work.

Is this a new phenomenon that started post-LLM?

Re: GPT-5 is behind schedule

#39

Post by Vecr »

PittleyDunkin wrote: post #21

Everyone's comparing o1 and claude, but neither really work well enough to justify paying for them in my experience for coding. What I really want is a mode where they ask clarifying questions , ideally many of them, before spitting out an answer. This would greatly improve utility of producing something with more value than an auto-complete.

I know multiple people that carefully prompt to get that done. The model outputs in direct token order, and can't turn around, so you need to make sure that's strictly followed. The system can and will come up with post-hoc "reasoning".

Re: GPT-5 is behind schedule

#40

Post by qup »

PittleyDunkin wrote: post #21

Everyone's comparing o1 and claude, but neither really work well enough to justify paying for them in my experience for coding. What I really want is a mode where they ask clarifying questions , ideally many of them, before spitting out an answer. This would greatly improve utility of producing something with more value than an auto-complete.

Have you used them to build a system to ask you clarifying questions?

Or even instructed them to?

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