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OpenAI O3 breakthrough high score on ARC-AGI-PUB

arcprize.org

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Re: OpenAI O3 breakthrough high score on ARC-AGI-PUB

#471

Post by OhioMan2943 »

mrcwinn wrote: post #460
OhioMan2943 wrote: post #456

I'm 22 and have no clue what I'm meant to do in a world where this is a thing. I'm moving to a semi rural, outdoorsy area where they teach data science and marine science and I can enjoy my days hiking, and the march of technology is a little slower. I know this will disrupt so much of our way of life, so I'm chasing what fun innocent years are left before things change dramatically.

On the contrary I think you already have an excellent plan.

I'm happy enough with it, but I'm also a little sad that it's essentially been chosen for me because of weak willed and valued people who don't want to use policy to make things better for us as a society. Plus we are in a bad world/scenario for AI advancements to come into with pretty heavy institutional decay and loss of political checks and balances.

It's like my life is forfeit to fixing other peoples mistakes because they're so glaring and I feel an obligation. Maybe that's the way the world's always been, but it's a concerning future right now

Re: OpenAI O3 breakthrough high score on ARC-AGI-PUB

#472

Post by rich_sasha »

OhioMan2943 wrote: post #456

I'm 22 and have no clue what I'm meant to do in a world where this is a thing. I'm moving to a semi rural, outdoorsy area where they teach data science and marine science and I can enjoy my days hiking, and the march of technology is a little slower. I know this will disrupt so much of our way of life, so I'm chasing what fun innocent years are left before things change dramatically.

I feel your anxiety. I often wonder how I arrange the remaining many decades of my life to maintain a stream of income.

Perhaps what I need is actually a steady stream of food - i.e. buy some land and oxen and solar panels while I can.

Re: OpenAI O3 breakthrough high score on ARC-AGI-PUB

#473

Post by azeirah »

phillipcarter wrote: post #53
obblekk wrote: post #42

Human performance is 85% [1]. o3 high gets 87.5%. This means we have an algorithm to get to human level performance on this task. If you think this task is an eval of general reasoning ability, we have an algorithm for that now. There's a lot of work ahead to generalize o3 performance to all domains. I think this explains why many researchers feel AGI is within reach, now that we have an algorithm that works. Congrat…

As excited as I am by this, I still feel like this is still just a small approximation of a small chunk of human reasoning ability at large. o3 (and whatever comes next) feels to me like it will head down the path of being a reasoning coprocessor for various tasks. But, still, this is incredibly impressive.

I'd like to see this o3 thing play 5d chess with multiverse time travel or baba is you.

The only effect smarter models will have is that intelligent people will have to use less of their brain to do their work. As has always been the case, the medium is the message, and climate change is one of the most difficult and worst problems of our time.

If this gets software people to quit en-masse and start working in energy, biology, ecology and preservation? Then it has succeeded.

Re: OpenAI O3 breakthrough high score on ARC-AGI-PUB

#474

Post by HarHarVeryFunny »

maxdoop wrote: post #8

How much longer can I get paid $150k to write code ?

You're not being paid $150K to "write code". You're being paid that to deliver solutions - to be a corporate cog than can ingest business requirements and emit (and maintain) business solutions.

If there are jobs paying $150K just to code (someone else tells you what to code, and you just code it up), then please share!

Re: OpenAI O3 breakthrough high score on ARC-AGI-PUB

#475

Post by aryonoco »

schappim wrote: post #462
OhioMan2943 wrote: post #456

I'm 22 and have no clue what I'm meant to do in a world where this is a thing. I'm moving to a semi rural, outdoorsy area where they teach data science and marine science and I can enjoy my days hiking, and the march of technology is a little slower. I know this will disrupt so much of our way of life, so I'm chasing what fun innocent years are left before things change dramatically.

I completely understand how you feel -I'm in my 40s, and I often find myself questioning what direction to take in this rapidly changing world. On top of that, I'm unsure whether advising my kids to go to university is still the right path for their future. Everything seems so uncertain, and the pace of technological advancement makes long-term planning feel almost impossible. Your plan to move to a slower-paced area…

I advise my kids to stay curious, keep learning, keep wondering, keep discovering. Whether that's through university or some other path.

Re: OpenAI O3 breakthrough high score on ARC-AGI-PUB

#476

Post by rtsil »

schappim wrote: post #462
OhioMan2943 wrote: post #456

I'm 22 and have no clue what I'm meant to do in a world where this is a thing. I'm moving to a semi rural, outdoorsy area where they teach data science and marine science and I can enjoy my days hiking, and the march of technology is a little slower. I know this will disrupt so much of our way of life, so I'm chasing what fun innocent years are left before things change dramatically.

I completely understand how you feel -I'm in my 40s, and I often find myself questioning what direction to take in this rapidly changing world. On top of that, I'm unsure whether advising my kids to go to university is still the right path for their future. Everything seems so uncertain, and the pace of technological advancement makes long-term planning feel almost impossible. Your plan to move to a slower-paced area…

I tell everyone who would listen to me (i.e. not many) that white collar jobs like mine are dead and skilled manual work is the way of the near future, that is until the rise of the robots.

Re: OpenAI O3 breakthrough high score on ARC-AGI-PUB

#477

Post by karmasimida »

OhioMan2943 wrote: post #456

I'm 22 and have no clue what I'm meant to do in a world where this is a thing. I'm moving to a semi rural, outdoorsy area where they teach data science and marine science and I can enjoy my days hiking, and the march of technology is a little slower. I know this will disrupt so much of our way of life, so I'm chasing what fun innocent years are left before things change dramatically.

While I understand why you feel this way, the meaning or standing of being a programmer is different now. It feels like the purpose is lost or it longer belongs to human.

But below is reality talk. With Claude 3.5, I already think it is a better programmer than I at micro level tasks, and a better Leetcode programmer than I could ever be.

I think it is like modern car manufacturering, the robots build most of the components, but I can’t see how human could be dismissed from the process to oversee output.

O3 has been very impressive in achieving 70+ in swebench for example, but this also means when it is trained on the codebase multiple times so visibility isn't an issue yet it still has 30% chance that it can’t pass the unit tests.

A fully autonomous system can’t be trusted, the economy of software won’t collapse, but it will be transformed beyond our imagination now.

I will for sure miss the days when writing code, or coder is still a real business.

How time flies

Re: OpenAI O3 breakthrough high score on ARC-AGI-PUB

#478

Post by mukunda_johnson »

roboboffin wrote: post #248

Interesting that in the video, there is an admission that they have been targeting this benchmark. A comment that was quickly shut down by Sam. A bit puzzling to me. Why does it matter ?

I always smell foul play from Sam. I'd bet they are doing something silly to inflate the benchmark score. Not saying they are, but Sam is the type of guy to put a literal dumb human in the API loop and score "just as high as a human would."

Re: OpenAI O3 breakthrough high score on ARC-AGI-PUB

#479

Post by dyauspitr »

obblekk wrote: post #42

Human performance is 85% [1]. o3 high gets 87.5%. This means we have an algorithm to get to human level performance on this task. If you think this task is an eval of general reasoning ability, we have an algorithm for that now. There's a lot of work ahead to generalize o3 performance to all domains. I think this explains why many researchers feel AGI is within reach, now that we have an algorithm that works. Congrat…

I’ll believe it when the AI can earn money on its own. I obviously don’t mean someone paying a subscription to use the AI I mean, letting the AI lose on the Internet with only the goal of making money and putting it into a bank account.

Re: OpenAI O3 breakthrough high score on ARC-AGI-PUB

#480

Post by kvn8888 »

agnosticmantis wrote: post #463

This is so impressive that it brings out the pessimist in me. Hopefully my skepticism will end up being unwarranted, but how confident are we that the queries are not routed to human workers behind the API? This sounds crazy but is plausible for the fake-it-till-you-make-it crowd. Also given the prohibitive compute costs per task, typical users won't be using this model, so the scheme could go on for quite sometime b…

That would be a ton of problems for a small team of PhD/Grad level experts to solve (for GPQA Diamond, etc) in a short time. Remember, on EpochAl Frontier Math, these problems require hours to days worth of reasoning by humans

The author also suggested this is a new architecture that uses existing methods, like a Monte Carlo tree search that deepmind is investigating (they use this method for AlphaZero)

I don't see the point of colluding for this sort of fraud, as these methods like tree search and pruning already exist. And other labs could genuinely produce these results

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