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Satellite powered estimation of global solar potential

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Re: Satellite powered estimation of global solar potential

#131

Post by macintux »

bruce511 wrote: post #120
macintux wrote: post #43

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I’m amazed at the amount of opposition to centralized solar generation. I assume there’s a fair bit of fossil fuel industry astroturfing involved.

There's the perception that it's an "either" question. When in reality its both. Home solar is a big win, and if nothing else allows capital to be sourced from a million home owners. Centralized solar is a big win, generating grid power Erich is obviously important. It's not a question of either, it's a question of both.

I should have made it clear: I’m referring to people who are adamantly opposed to large solar installations, apparently because it’s a threat to agriculture? It’s very odd, but I see yard signs and bumper stickers everywhere in rural Indiana.

Re: Satellite powered estimation of global solar potential

#132

Post by macintux »

dzhiurgis wrote: post #77
macintux wrote: post #43

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I’m amazed at the amount of opposition to centralized solar generation. I assume there’s a fair bit of fossil fuel industry astroturfing involved.

It all hinges on how much your infrastructure costs. At the moment something like 1/3rd of your retail cost if delivery. At some point it's 15x cheaper to have 1kW home feed in + battery vs 15kW feed in.

Responded to a sibling comment: I’m referring to people who oppose industrial solar installations for some reason.

Re: Satellite powered estimation of global solar potential

#133

Post by mlsu »

scotty79 wrote: post #104
tsycho wrote: post #93

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Valid points. Is there a known solution to this, even if it's too expensive today? Would it make sense for local electricity companies to go full solar with large battery backups? Or are batteries too expensive, or don't last long enough, for this to be feasible? What about a wind+solar combination? Both of them are unlikely to go offline at the same time. I see articles that the cost of wind and solar keep going dow…

The solution to that is as much distributed storage as possible and cryptocurrency mining (or LLMs) for monetizing excess energy.

Sorry, capex for crypto -- let alone llm (datacenters must be on 100% of the time to pay nvidia) -- is way too high. It must see high utilization for amortization to be favorable.

You only see crypto in areas that have really cheap, 24/7 power. Big crypto mining operations are only built near remote hydroelectric power stations, or worse, natural gas or coal rich areas. Places where fossil fuels are made but that don't have easy/cheap access to refineries, rail lines, or pipelines.

Re: Satellite powered estimation of global solar potential

#135

Post by ijustlovemath »

NavinF wrote: post #74
ijustlovemath wrote: post #48

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Sure, but that's why my emphasis was on distributed grids . Interlinking local capacity / having one or two neighbors with fully fledged systems is way better than going weeks charging stuff in your car. When you're without power for weeks, you'll probably have enough sun for more than enough days to get yourself sorted. Hurricanes also tend to sweep up any other systems in the region, so once they disperse, it's pre…

> Interlinking local capacity Is this a thing IRL? Every system I've looked at stops feeding the grid as soon as the grid goes down

Referring more to microgrids here; think city block/neighborhood level independent grids

Re: Satellite powered estimation of global solar potential

#136

Post by Retric »

buckle8017 wrote: post #84
ggreer wrote: post #66

Earlier quoted context omitted.

How are you calculating that? Solar installations are around $2.50-$3.50 per watt, so $20k would get you 6-8kW. Assuming actual output is 10% of capacity, that's 14-19kWh/day or 5,000-7,000kWh per year. Current residential electricity prices in SF are 38.9 cents per kWh[1], so that's $2,000-2,700 per year in savings, or $40-54k over 20 years. The actual amount saved depends on how much electricity you're consuming du…

I didn't calculate anything I just put in an address and a monthly electricity bill. https://sunroof.withgoogle.com/

Ahh, ok the tool sucks it doesn’t seem to calculate based on your current cost per kWh or the local cost per kWh.

It’s ignoring inflation on those calculations, acting like your electric bill will be the same in 20 years. It’s also ignoring residual value in the system after 20 years they typically last 25-30, and you don’t pay taxes on savings.

There install estimates where also really high for my area, but I don’t know if that’s a general issue.

Re: Satellite powered estimation of global solar potential

#137

Post by notatoad »

buckle8017 wrote: post #84
ggreer wrote: post #66

Earlier quoted context omitted.

How are you calculating that? Solar installations are around $2.50-$3.50 per watt, so $20k would get you 6-8kW. Assuming actual output is 10% of capacity, that's 14-19kWh/day or 5,000-7,000kWh per year. Current residential electricity prices in SF are 38.9 cents per kWh[1], so that's $2,000-2,700 per year in savings, or $40-54k over 20 years. The actual amount saved depends on how much electricity you're consuming du…

I didn't calculate anything I just put in an address and a monthly electricity bill. https://sunroof.withgoogle.com/

sunroof was a 2015 project. if they haven't adjusted their cost estimates since they launched it, it could be wildly overestimating things.

Re: Satellite powered estimation of global solar potential

#138

Post by geewee »

notatoad wrote: post #117
pyaamb wrote: post #70

This is really incredible. If they could plug in local utility prices and come up with estimate for dollars saved per year, that would be an incredible conversation starter for homeowners who might not have considered taking on a home solar project otherwise.

like this? https://sunroof.withgoogle.com/

Aw, I hoped for a second for global coverage.

Re: Satellite powered estimation of global solar potential

#139

Post by patrickhogan1 »

Retric wrote: post #136
buckle8017 wrote: post #84

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I didn't calculate anything I just put in an address and a monthly electricity bill. https://sunroof.withgoogle.com/

Ahh, ok the tool sucks it doesn’t seem to calculate based on your current cost per kWh or the local cost per kWh. It’s ignoring inflation on those calculations, acting like your electric bill will be the same in 20 years. It’s also ignoring residual value in the system after 20 years they typically last 25-30, and you don’t pay taxes on savings. There install estimates where also really high for my area, but I don’t…

Your electric bill 20 years from now is just as likely to go down as it is to go up.

In two decades, we could see advancements like mobile generators offering free power, ultra-affordable battery packs delivered to homes to meet energy needs, or even the widespread adoption of low-cost fusion energy.

The key takeaway is that predicting the future cost of electricity is as challenging as it was to predict today’s solar energy costs—now far lower than anyone expected.

Re: Satellite powered estimation of global solar potential

#140

Post by NavinF »

ijustlovemath wrote: post #135
NavinF wrote: post #74

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Interlinking local capacity Is this a thing IRL? Every system I've looked at stops feeding the grid as soon as the grid goes down

Referring more to microgrids here; think city block/neighborhood level independent grids

Ah I see. AFAIK selling electricity is highly regulated in most states so I can't imagine microgrids taking off in the US. It would be cool though
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