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Konwinski Prize

andykonwinski.com

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Re: Konwinski Prize

#11

Post by minimaxir »

The author posted about the original tweet announcement a couple days ago: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=42413392

In reponse to my comment of "Realistically, an AI that can perform that well is worth a lot, lot more than $1M.", he said:

> yeah i agree. one of my goals is to inspire and honor those that work on open source AI.

> people who work on open source tend to be motivated by things like impact and the excitement of being part of something bigger than themselves - at least that's how i always feel when i'm around Berkeley and get to meet or work with OG BSD hackers and people who helped invent core internet protocols or the guys who invented RISC or more recently RISC-V

> those people are going to do this kind of OSS work and share it with the world anyway, without any cash prize. i think of this as a sort of thank you gift for them. and also a way to maybe convince a few people to explore that path who might not have otherwise.

Re: Konwinski Prize

#14

Post by noch »

segmondy wrote: post #8
optimalsolver wrote: post #5

Earlier quoted context omitted.

>$1M for the AI that can close 90% of new GitHub issues If your AI can do this, it's worth several orders of magnitude more. Just FYI.

Exactly, I'll personally buy it for $2Million for anyone that can get it and assign me the full code/weight and rights.

> I'll personally buy it for $2Million for anyone that can get it and assign me the full code/weight and rights.

If you are serious, you should put the funds in an escrow contract and announce a bounty.

There are many brilliant people who would work on this for you.

Re: Konwinski Prize

#15

Post by senko »

optimalsolver wrote: post #5
thih9 wrote: post #3

The Kaggle competition page has more details: https://www.kaggle.com/competitions/konwinski-prize The prizes scale with the model’s score; the total prize pool is between $100,000 and $1,225,000, depending on the top scores.

>$1M for the AI that can close 90% of new GitHub issues If your AI can do this, it's worth several orders of magnitude more. Just FYI.

And Linux kernel, curl, SQLite and many other open source software are worth infinitely more than the purchase price.

Also, you cut off the "from the benchmark" part; this doesn't expect it to solve any random Github issue, just the ones from the (presumably manually vetted and cleaned up) bench dataset.

Re: Konwinski Prize

#16

Post by minimaxir »

senko wrote: post #15
optimalsolver wrote: post #5

Earlier quoted context omitted.

>$1M for the AI that can close 90% of new GitHub issues If your AI can do this, it's worth several orders of magnitude more. Just FYI.

And Linux kernel, curl, SQLite and many other open source software are worth infinitely more than the purchase price. Also, you cut off the "from the benchmark" part; this doesn't expect it to solve any random Github issue, just the ones from the (presumably manually vetted and cleaned up) bench dataset.

Linux kernel, curl, and SQLite don't require significant compute cost to develop that put it out of reach of hobbyists, and only in the reach of organizations expecting a positive ROI.

Re: Konwinski Prize

#17

Post by senko »

minimaxir wrote: post #16
senko wrote: post #15

Earlier quoted context omitted.

And Linux kernel, curl, SQLite and many other open source software are worth infinitely more than the purchase price. Also, you cut off the "from the benchmark" part; this doesn't expect it to solve any random Github issue, just the ones from the (presumably manually vetted and cleaned up) bench dataset.

Linux kernel, curl, and SQLite don't require significant compute cost to develop that put it out of reach of hobbyists, and only in the reach of organizations expecting a positive ROI.

The cost of Linux kernel development alone has been estimated at a few $B (https://dwheeler.com/essays/linux-kernel-cost.html), current figure is probably over tens of billions.

Also, the prize doesn't require you to train a new foundational model, just that whatever you use is open weights or open source.

Theoretically, might be get away with a Llama3.3 (or any other model which you think makes sense) with a cleverly designed agentic system and a fresh codebase-understanding approach, with minimal compute cost.

(ok, probably not that easy, but just saying there's much more to AI coding that the underlying model)

Re: Konwinski Prize

#18

Post by bruce511 »

senko wrote: post #17
minimaxir wrote: post #16

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Linux kernel, curl, and SQLite don't require significant compute cost to develop that put it out of reach of hobbyists, and only in the reach of organizations expecting a positive ROI.

The cost of Linux kernel development alone has been estimated at a few $B ( https://dwheeler.com/essays/linux-kernel-cost.html ), current figure is probably over tens of billions. Also, the prize doesn't require you to train a new foundational model, just that whatever you use is open weights or open source. Theoretically, might be get away with a Llama3.3 (or any other model which you think makes sense) with a cleve…

>> The cost of Linux kernel development alone has been estimated at a few $B (https://dwheeler.com/essays/linux-kernel-cost.html), current figure is probably over tens of billions.

I followed your link, but it doesn't seem to bear out upur assertion. The two numbers mentioned in the article are 176 mil and 612 mil. Mind you those weren't an estimate of cost, but rather an estimate to replace. Article is dated 2004, with an update in 2011.

Using the lines-of-code estimation it crossed a billion in 2010 - again to replace. That has no relation to what it did actually cost.

Getting from there to "tens of billions" seems a stretch. Assuming a bottom value in your estimate of 20 billion, and assuming a developer costs a million a year, that's 20 000 man-years of effort. Which implies something like 2000 people (very well paid people) working continuously for the last decade.

Which seems, well, unlikely.

Re: Konwinski Prize

#19

Post by vouaobrasil »

This is why AI advances so quickly. There are easy economic mechanisms to encourage it, while AI safety laws have to go through an arduous process. Seems rather lopsided when the technology can be potentially dangerous. We should have mechanisms to take a step back and examine this stuff with more caution, mechanisms which have equal force to economic force but we don't. The Amish have a much better model.

Re: Konwinski Prize

#20

Post by olddustytrail »

bruce511 wrote: post #18
senko wrote: post #17

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The cost of Linux kernel development alone has been estimated at a few $B ( https://dwheeler.com/essays/linux-kernel-cost.html ), current figure is probably over tens of billions. Also, the prize doesn't require you to train a new foundational model, just that whatever you use is open weights or open source. Theoretically, might be get away with a Llama3.3 (or any other model which you think makes sense) with a cleve…

>> The cost of Linux kernel development alone has been estimated at a few $B ( https://dwheeler.com/essays/linux-kernel-cost.html ), current figure is probably over tens of billions. I followed your link, but it doesn't seem to bear out upur assertion. The two numbers mentioned in the article are 176 mil and 612 mil. Mind you those weren't an estimate of cost, but rather an estimate to replace. Article is dated 2004,…

There are around 5000 active kernel devs, they are generally highly skilled and therefore highly paid, and they've been working for a lot longer than 10 years.

So doesn't seem that unlikely based on your estimates.

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