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Elon Musk wanted an OpenAI for-profit

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Re: Elon Musk wanted an OpenAI for-profit

#471
post #453

Earlier quoted context omitted.

What were their predictions?

"we have reason to believe AGI can ultimately be built with less than $10B in hardware" "Within the next three years, robotics should be completely solved, AI should solve a long-standing unproven theorem, programming competitions should be won consistently by AIs, and there should be convincing chatbots" (2017) "We will completely solve the problem of adversarial examples by the end of August"

What would robotics completely solved even mean?

Re: Elon Musk wanted an OpenAI for-profit

#472

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I imagine that's what he's doing. He's willing to put a lot of company money into getting the city on Mars started, because if he's first there, he's gonna set himself (or his dynasty?) up to make hundreds of billions of dollars. Being effectively in control of your own planet? Neat. Scary too.

Doing what exactly? What industry could Mars possibly support profitably?

Solar powered non-urgent batch compute. Mars has a shitton of land to build on and no people whining about you cutting down some rainforest or something to make room for your projects.

Re: Elon Musk wanted an OpenAI for-profit

#473

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Twitter famously deplatformed Trump, as a sitting president. They were a captured institution and it was shown that corrupt intelligence agencies were directly influencing Twitter's censorship. There was no other distribution channel available. Messaging is important. Counter narratives are important.

> shown that corrupt intelligence agencies were directly influencing Twitter's censorship That is a hyperbolic way of saying the fbi used the report feature everyone has access to when worried about domestic terrorism along the lines of the Oklahoma City bombing. Not exactly government censorship - not a potato potahto thing.

It doesn't sound exactly ridiculous when Zuckerberg also admitted those same intelligence agencies pressured them into censoring the Hunter Biden laptop story.

Re: Elon Musk wanted an OpenAI for-profit

#474
post #58

I guess it's not news but it is pretty wild to see the level of millenarianism espoused by all of these guys. The board of OpenAI is supposedly going to "determine the fate of the world", robotics to be "completely solved" by 2020, the goal of OpenAI is to "avoid an AGI dictatorship". Is nobody in these very rich guys' spheres pushing back on their thought process? So far we are multiple years in with much investment…

I tried Claude. If hardware continues it's evolution of speed in the next 10 years I can have Claude but local + running constantly and yeah that would change certain things fundamentaly

Qwen 2.5 32B Coder is actually a viable locally-hosted alternative to Claude 3.5 Sonnet.

It's not better, but if I couldn't access Claude for some reason, I would definitely use it.

Re: Elon Musk wanted an OpenAI for-profit

#475

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Land on Mars is cheap... But no, I really doubt that's all it takes. Unless you discount all of the R&D costs as SpaceX operational expenses.

I imagine that's what he's doing. He's willing to put a lot of company money into getting the city on Mars started, because if he's first there, he's gonna set himself (or his dynasty?) up to make hundreds of billions of dollars. Being effectively in control of your own planet? Neat. Scary too.

He's high on Ketamine.

Re: Elon Musk wanted an OpenAI for-profit

#476

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I mean once Boeing is out of the picture SpaceX is just going to raise its rates. Tesla sells EVs much cheaper in China than the US due to actual competition.

That's Boeing's problem, not SpaceX's. Boeing used to be a great American company.

Well, SpaceX's price increases are going to also be a NASA problem and by extension US taxpayer.

Re: Elon Musk wanted an OpenAI for-profit

#477
post #58

I guess it's not news but it is pretty wild to see the level of millenarianism espoused by all of these guys. The board of OpenAI is supposedly going to "determine the fate of the world", robotics to be "completely solved" by 2020, the goal of OpenAI is to "avoid an AGI dictatorship". Is nobody in these very rich guys' spheres pushing back on their thought process? So far we are multiple years in with much investment…

> multiple years in with much investment and little return

Hmm.. where do you live? It's quite transforming already in many areas and not going to stop any time soon. I'll call it 'The Last Explosion', as opposite to 'AI Winter'. By that I mean this explosion with result in AGI. Likely sub-human first, then super-human.

Re: Elon Musk wanted an OpenAI for-profit

#478
post #116

A few weeks ago my OpenAI credits expired and I was billed to replace them. I had no idea this was the business model, fine you got me with your auto-renew scam because you decided my tokens were spoiled. At some point, OpenAI became who they said they werent. You can't even get chatgpt to do anything fun anymore as the lawyers have hobbled its creative expression. And now they want to fight with Elon over what they…

Expiring tokens is a pretty standard business model. Are they lying and saying the tokens never expire?

Standard for who? That's awful model that probably shouldn't be legal. They're already getting a free loan for a service that gets cheaper to provide over time.

At most, tokens should expire after years of inactivity and multiple warnings to reset the timer.

Re: Elon Musk wanted an OpenAI for-profit

#479
post #411

I'm amazed OpenAI made these disclosures. My main takeaway was how wrong all the predictions of Sutskever and Brockman turned out to be, and how all their promises have been broken. Also interesting that up to 2019 OpenAI was focused on RL rather than LLMs.

LLMs never took off until they combined them with RL via RLHF. RLHF was discovered in their RL research on game playing. GPT3 was out for quite a while with much lower impact than the chatgpt release and finished training in like december 2019 I read somewhere, released mid 2020. There were later better checkpoints, but it still didn't have much impact except for code completion.

With just a raw language model instructions and chat didn't work to near the same degree.

Both elements are important and they were early in both. Illya's first email here talks about needing progress on language:

2016

Musk: Frankly, what surprises me is that the AI community is taking this long to figure out concepts. It doesn’t sound super hard. High-level linking of a large number of deep nets sounds like the right approach or at least a key part of the right approach.

Illya: It is not the case that once we solve “concepts,” we get AI. Other problems that will have to be solved include unsupervised learning, transfer learning, and lifetime learning. We’re also doing pretty badly with language right now.

Re: Elon Musk wanted an OpenAI for-profit

#480

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Too bad not disclosing that you always intended to convert the non-profit into a for-profit during your testimony while numerous senators congratulate you about your non-profit values isn't problematic. https://www.techpolicy.press/transcript-senate-judiciary-sub...

Can this be considered perjury?

corporate puffery?
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