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Elon Musk wanted an OpenAI for-profit

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Re: Elon Musk wanted an OpenAI for-profit

#451

Post by lupire »

bee_rider wrote: post #247
manquer wrote: post #179

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> The product market fit is fantastic. This isn't the first time I've heard random strangers discussing it in public. Hardly the evidence of PMF. There is always something new in the zeitgeist, that every one is talking about, some more so than others . 2 years before it was VR, few years before that NFTs and blockchain everything, before that it was self driving cars before that personal voice assistants like Siri a…

Consciousness is a stupid and unreasonable goal, it is basically impossible to confirm that a machine isn’t just faking it really well. Singularity is at least definable…Although I think it is not really the bar required to be really impactful. If we get an AI system that can do the work of like 60% of hardcore knowledge workers, 80% of office workers, and 95% of CEOs/politicians and other pablumists, it could be rea…

Those numbers are approximately zero, because demand will immediately 10x as soon as AI makes that affordable, as computers have always done. So, profitable (if the AI can cost less than a human for the work), but not changing how the economy works

Re: Elon Musk wanted an OpenAI for-profit

#452

Post by niceice »

p_j_w wrote: post #381
xyzzy123 wrote: post #330

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I think he is less worried about competitors than the government itself. Specifically, unelected bureaucrats with lots of power and few responsibilities.

Elon now IS an unelected bureucrat with lots of power and few responsibilities. If he's really afraid of that kind of thing, he should throw himself out.

That's what he is doing. He designed the department to have an expiration date.

Re: Elon Musk wanted an OpenAI for-profit

#453

Post by roca »

nightowl_games wrote: post #426
roca wrote: post #411

I'm amazed OpenAI made these disclosures. My main takeaway was how wrong all the predictions of Sutskever and Brockman turned out to be, and how all their promises have been broken. Also interesting that up to 2019 OpenAI was focused on RL rather than LLMs.

What were their predictions?

"we have reason to believe AGI can ultimately be built with less than $10B in hardware"

"Within the next three years, robotics should be completely solved, AI should solve a long-standing unproven theorem, programming competitions should be won consistently by AIs, and there should be convincing chatbots" (2017)

"We will completely solve the problem of adversarial examples by the end of August"

Re: Elon Musk wanted an OpenAI for-profit

#454

Post by lupire »

result2vino wrote: post #314
manquer wrote: post #179

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> The product market fit is fantastic. This isn't the first time I've heard random strangers discussing it in public. Hardly the evidence of PMF. There is always something new in the zeitgeist, that every one is talking about, some more so than others . 2 years before it was VR, few years before that NFTs and blockchain everything, before that it was self driving cars before that personal voice assistants like Siri a…

> 2 years before it was VR, few years before that NFTs and blockchain everything Are you so deep in the SV tech echo chamber that you can’t distinguish between tech bro / snake oil salesman hype and something that actual normal people are engaged by? The only people talking about NFTs in a non-disparaging way were delusional in large part because they themselves bought into it wanted to egg others on. NFTs were just…

Blockchain and NFT took over the Super Bowl. That's pretty mainstream. There are Bitcoin ATMs.

Re: Elon Musk wanted an OpenAI for-profit

#455

Post by kulahan »

linotype wrote: post #215
kulahan wrote: post #199

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I imagine that's what he's doing. He's willing to put a lot of company money into getting the city on Mars started, because if he's first there, he's gonna set himself (or his dynasty?) up to make hundreds of billions of dollars. Being effectively in control of your own planet? Neat. Scary too.

Doing what exactly? What industry could Mars possibly support profitably?

Why would I need to choose just one? He’s the only person with a serious presence on the planet. He builds a landing pad that works exclusively with his rockets, and ANYTHING that happens on the planet will be going through him. Hell, he can probably convince China or the US to pay to build the habitats if he wants to.

Re: Elon Musk wanted an OpenAI for-profit

#456

Post by jjulius »

averageRoyalty wrote: post #174

It's an aside, but these sorts of timelines are very American centric. I don't know when your autumn ("fall") or summer are in relation to September. Don't mix keys here, either use months or quarters, not a mix of things including some relative to a specific hemisphere.

Following HN's guidelines, I'm going to assume that you're a pretty smart person who knows that our northern/southern hemispheres mean that there are only two options for when summer occurs, and when winter occurs, and that they're essentially just opposites of one another.

If you're reading it from a southern hemisphere viewpoint and find that it doesn't make sense, isn't it quite simple to just go, "Oh, perhaps it's the opposite?" and apply that?

This is hardly the first time I've ever encountered this sort of thing. In fact, as an American, I've had to employ this sort of thinking myself when interacting with people on forums from places like South America and Australia.

It's an easy fix, and it's not that big of a deal, honestly - an innocent little side effect of the fact that we're able to communicate at such a global level[1]. :)

[1] https://youtu.be/PdFB7q89_3U?si=-amoG7EtEpS0xkEW

Re: Elon Musk wanted an OpenAI for-profit

#457

Post by lupire »

TZubiri wrote: post #133
lsy wrote: post #58

I guess it's not news but it is pretty wild to see the level of millenarianism espoused by all of these guys. The board of OpenAI is supposedly going to "determine the fate of the world", robotics to be "completely solved" by 2020, the goal of OpenAI is to "avoid an AGI dictatorship". Is nobody in these very rich guys' spheres pushing back on their thought process? So far we are multiple years in with much investment…

I remember seeing OpenAI like 10 years ago in GiveWell's list of charities along with water.org, deworm the world 80.000 hours and that kind of things. It's a wild take to say that they have gotten nowhere and that they haven't found product-market fit.

Are you sure?

Good Ventures / Open Philanthropy (Dustin Moskovitz) funded GiveWell and OpenAI, and GiveWell's leadership floated to OpenAI, but I'm not convinced that GiveWell funded OpenAI.

https://www.givewell.org/about/gw-op-relationship

They are certainly both entangled with the Effective Altruism community, but GiveWell came from the "humanities/finance" side, not the tech bro technoutopia side.

Re: Elon Musk wanted an OpenAI for-profit

#458

Post by lupire »

AlanYx wrote: post #34

Ignoring all the drama, this part is interesting: "On one call, Elon told us he didn’t care about equity personally but just needed to accumulate $80B for a city on Mars."

Elon Musk is nothing if not famous for astronomically over-promising and under-delivering.

Re: Elon Musk wanted an OpenAI for-profit

#459

Post by bayarearefugee »

yard2010 wrote: post #194
this_user wrote: post #161

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> When Altman was collecting the award at Cambridge the other year, protesters dropped in on the after-award public talk/Q&A session, and he actively empathised with the protestors. He always does that to give himself cover, but he has clearly shown that his words mean very little in this regard. He always dodges criticism. He used to talk about the importance of him being accountable to the OpenAI board and them bei…

This guy is outright scary. He gives me the chills.

the whole group of these techbro billionaires come off as barely human ghouls when you hear them speak, imo

see also: peter thiel on piers morgan recently.

Re: Elon Musk wanted an OpenAI for-profit

#460

Post by marcosdumay »

VectorLock wrote: post #249
linotype wrote: post #215

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Doing what exactly? What industry could Mars possibly support profitably?

Yeah and Mars is a shitty place to live. And will always be a shitty place to live. No amount of fantastical "terraforming" is going to create a magnetosphere.

Making a magnetosphere should be easier than terraforming an entire planet. It's just some hundreds of thousands of kilometers of wires, and you can even use the wires while you are at it.

He obviously has plans to do neither of those. What makes me question why does he even want to go there... But a magnetosphere strikes me as "earlier infrastructure", while terraforming is "is that even possible?"

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