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The world of tomorrow

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Re: The world of tomorrow

#101

Post by chrisco255 »

Animats wrote: post #2

That's the view from a country on the trailing edge. In Shenzhen, or Seoul, or Tskuba, or Tapei you'll find enthusiasm for technology. The US can't even make a smartphone any more. Or electrical distribution equipment. Or telephone central offices. Or TV sets. Next to go, cars. (Chrysler just exited the car business. Minivans only now.)

The US writes most of the software that powers those devices. It also designs the hardware. It also runs the data centers and backend infrastructure and software required to make those phones useful, like GPS satellites and AWS/Azure. It produces most of the content that people watch on their TVs and much of what they play on their video game systems. The U.S. is a leader in robotics, robotic surgery equipment, self driving, electric cars, space technology, agricultural technology, etc.

Chrysler is owned by a French/Dutch company named Stellantis (it was owned by the German Daimler previously). That brand also controls Dodge, Jeep, Ram, etc. so while Chrysler cars and the Chrysler brand have been on a decades long decline, it's hardly an indication of an American exit from car manufacturing. The US is a leader in electic cars, trucks, SUVs, heavy equipment, etc. And even many foreign brands own factories in the U.S. that produce cars here.

Re: The world of tomorrow

#102

Post by chrisco255 »

DennisP wrote: post #13
Animats wrote: post #2

That's the view from a country on the trailing edge. In Shenzhen, or Seoul, or Tskuba, or Tapei you'll find enthusiasm for technology. The US can't even make a smartphone any more. Or electrical distribution equipment. Or telephone central offices. Or TV sets. Next to go, cars. (Chrysler just exited the car business. Minivans only now.)

For cars the US does have Tesla, Lucid, and Rivian. The first two are vertically integrated, making as many of their own components as possible. We also have Intel, and a pretty great rocket company.

Nvidia is also American, so is AMD.

Re: The world of tomorrow

#103

Post by 0xDEAFBEAD »

evrimoztamur wrote: post #69
0xDEAFBEAD wrote: post #63

I read this blog post the other day about the hedonic treadmill that influenced my thinking a lot: https://www.optimallyirrational.com/p/the-aim-of-maximising-... Consider this 1940s ad for a "house that runs like magic", powered by gas: https://wip.gatspress.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/12/AGAAd-1... I'm already living this dream life from the 1940s. I have a range, a refrigerator, "permanent hot springs", heating, a…

Recently, I've been thinking a lot about the incredible conveniences we have at our disposal. Yet there are still many places around the world today which do not have clean water, let alone hot clean water, immediately, whenever. Refrigeration, painkillers, free time for hobbies, arts, and sports. Once you start thinking about all the things you already have, asking for more seems selfish. All I wish for is these 'ba…

You might be interested in https://www.givedirectly.org/

Re: The world of tomorrow

#104

Post by wesapien »

MichaelZuo wrote: post #14
ryandrake wrote: post #9

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It feels like we are instead bifurcating instead of regressing to a mean. The rich are getting richer and moving to one side together as a group, while the middle class and poor are merging the other way into their own "barely hanging on class", distributed around a point far on the other side. The average going up doesn't mean it's a tide that raises all boats.

Even a 30th percentile US household would be above average globally…?

Punching down is clealrly a sign of things regressing. The Cantillon effect is what separates the rich and those aren't. Trickle down economics doesn't work. Imagine telling those barely middle and poor Americans you're still doing better than Thais or South Africans. It doesn't help.

Re: The world of tomorrow

#105

Post by Nevermark »

chrisco255 wrote: post #99
openrisk wrote: post #55

A great essay, worthy of detailed reading as it contains so many interesting connections and associations from the past to explain the present and maybe forecast the future. Just one example among the many: > Making family-sized dwellings abundant and thus affordable for most people would be the single most effective step toward restoring faith in progress. We are drowning in stochastic parrots and cryptographically…

The affordability crisis is entirely a function of over regulation and NIMBYism. Supply and demand are economic laws and it turns out when you restrict supply and demand is held constant or increases, prices skyrocket.

Taxing property on land, as well as the land, creates perverse incentives & disincentives.

If we only taxed land, renormalizing for the same total taxes:

1. It would be much more expensive to hold (absolutely or relatively) undeveloped land as an investment that parasitically increased in value due to surrounding investment.

Land is the exclusionary resource, so fully taxing it makes sense.

Renormalization would tax unused land hard, reducing its passive return, and the supply & availability of less used land will increase, and prices decrease.

2. It would be far more attractive to further develop land for economically rewarding use, since adding living spaces and other increased use would not directly raise annual taxes. Which today are essentially a heavy disincentive to development.

Ironically, property (excluding land) taxes, are a recurrent never ending wealth tax, inhibiting both the wealthy and non-wealthy from increasing their properties utility value.

We are so used to it we don’t really consider how much it warps our choices that putting in capital or labor into home improvements or increased multi-housing actually raises our taxes.

If they didn’t, improvements would be far more attractive for both utility and property value appreciation.

Ask any accountant.

Re: The world of tomorrow

#106

Post by saturn8601 »

Animats wrote: post #2

That's the view from a country on the trailing edge. In Shenzhen, or Seoul, or Tskuba, or Tapei you'll find enthusiasm for technology. The US can't even make a smartphone any more. Or electrical distribution equipment. Or telephone central offices. Or TV sets. Next to go, cars. (Chrysler just exited the car business. Minivans only now.)

>The US can't even make a smartphone any more.

Well they are trying. Purism has a "Made in America" phone: the Liberty Phone.

https://puri.sm/products/liberty-phone/

Why do you think cars are leaving the US? Tesla is a fully American manufacturer with some of the most US sourced components, GM/Ford aren't moving their cash cows out of the country anytime soon. and the Japanese and Germans are expanding their presence in the US. You cited a long declining brand that has had an agism problem. Thats your best evidence? I guess you can make the argument that there are too many brands in the car industry but the car manufacturing sector in the US is still quite strong.

Re: The world of tomorrow

#107

Post by Veserv »

TeMPOraL wrote: post #22
DennisP wrote: post #13

Earlier quoted context omitted.

For cars the US does have Tesla, Lucid, and Rivian. The first two are vertically integrated, making as many of their own components as possible. We also have Intel, and a pretty great rocket company.

> For cars the US does have Tesla (...) We also have (...) a pretty great rocket company And yet you all wish you didn't. Well, maybe not everyone, but it's the dominant view. This brings back a memory of a HN comment from a little over a decade ago: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=7885128 I'll just quote it in full: If you want to track the death of the cultural vision of Silicon Valley -- the belief that some…

You do realize the Tesla "patent pledge" [1] is one of the most unfair, unethical, and downright despicable legal contracts to ever attempt to cynically claim the moral high ground?

To conform to it you must not have:

"asserted, helped others assert or had a financial stake in any assertion of (i) any patent or other intellectual property right against Tesla or (ii) any patent right against a third party for its use of technologies relating to electric vehicles or related equipment;"

In case you do not understand, Tesla is stating that for Tesla to not assert patent rights, you must not assert patent and copyright and trademark rights against Tesla as seen by the inclusion of "or any other intellectual property right" beyond the statement of just "any patent...right". This is a exclusive and intentional carveout for Tesla in particular as explicitly identified in (i). All other parties are governed by (ii) which only states you must not assert applicable patent, and only patent, rights against non-Tesla parties.

They then make double plus sure that it is clear that Tesla is uniquely allowed to assert their copyright and trademark rights against you as seen by the third clause:

"marketed or sold any knock-off product (e.g., a product created by imitating or copying the design or appearance of a Tesla product or which suggests an association with or endorsement by Tesla) or provided any material assistance to another party doing so."

To gain access to Tesla patents, you must give Tesla access to your patents, copyrights, and trademarks. The sheer audacity to call that a "patent pledge" is astounding. No person with even a cursory knowledge of law and contracts, as required for any business executive, could mistake it. As such, it can only be a deliberate and intentional deception in a attempt to launder credibility by aping the name. It is truly unfortunate that it seems to work on people such as yourself.

[1] https://www.tesla.com/legal/additional-resources#patent-pled...

Re: The world of tomorrow

#109

Post by consf »

openrisk wrote: post #55

A great essay, worthy of detailed reading as it contains so many interesting connections and associations from the past to explain the present and maybe forecast the future. Just one example among the many: > Making family-sized dwellings abundant and thus affordable for most people would be the single most effective step toward restoring faith in progress. We are drowning in stochastic parrots and cryptographically…

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Re: The world of tomorrow

#110

Post by consf »

rkagerer wrote: post #41

When the future arrived, it felt… ordinary. What happened to the glamour of tomorrow? While I share your lament, witnessing feats like a Starship getting caught by giant chopsticks feels pretty darned extraordinary!

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