291–300 of 678 posts
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He bought Twitter for $40B. His Tesla stock was 0% ytd until the election. Post election it is up roughly 70% ytd & has paid for Twitter & the Mars colony multiple times. Hard to say if that happens without him owning Twitter.
Are we really giving Twitter that much credit these days? I feel like we gave it less credit when it was actually popular. I would give Elon jumping around on stage more credit than what Twitter/X did for this election.
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perhaps the "not dying on earth industry" after climate catastrophy hits
While I’m convinced we’re going to screw this planet up, the gap between “as bad as we can make Earth” and “as good as we can make Mars” is pretty huge, right? And not in a way that is optimistic for Mars.
Neither they nor Elon can or should be trusted to tell the truth. The only utility this statement should have is to illustrate whatever public narrative OAI wishes to affect.
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Doing what exactly? What industry could Mars possibly support profitably?
perhaps the "not dying on earth industry" after climate catastrophy hits
Google/Gemini have none of this baggage.
Google/Gemini are also the only ones who are not entirely dependent on Nvidia. They are now several generations into their in-house designed and TSMC manufactured TPUs.
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> The product market fit is fantastic. This isn't the first time I've heard random strangers discussing it in public. Hardly the evidence of PMF. There is always something new in the zeitgeist, that every one is talking about, some more so than others . 2 years before it was VR, few years before that NFTs and blockchain everything, before that it was self driving cars before that personal voice assistants like Siri a…
> 2 years before it was VR, few years before that NFTs and blockchain everything, before that it was self driving cars before that personal voice assistants like Siri and so on . I never saw people talking about VR in public, nor NFTs, and the closest I got to seeing blockchain in public were adverts, not hearing random people around me chatting about it. The only people I ever saw in real life talking about self-dri…
Isn't that funny? It speaks exactly to the GP's point about how frothing and uninformative the "zeitgeist" can be, as my experience happens to have been the opposite of yours. The people I happened to be casually brushing around during those earlier fads happened to be hip to them, or maybe my ears were more attentive, and so I heard them mentioned more often and with more enthusiasm.
In contrast, most of what I happen to hear about generative AI, outside of HN, tends to be idly laughing at its foibles and misrepresentation if it's mentioned at all.
I don't expect you to have the same experience as me, but I'm careful not to assume too much based on either of ours.
In 2017 he wrote
"Within the next three years, robotics should be completely solved, AI should solve a long-standing unproven theorem, programming competitions should be won consistently by AIs, and there should be convincing chatbots (though no one should pass the Turing test)."
"We will completely solve the problem of adversarial examples by the end of August."
Very clever to take a page from Musk's own playbook of confidently promising self-driving by next year for a decade.
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Nobody seems to remember how the Segway was going to change our world, backed by many of the VC power figures at the time + Steve Jobs.
It reappeared as e-bikes and e-scooters - Lime, Bird, etc.
Maybe a weird question, but how does a capitalist economy work where AGI-performed-labor is categorically less expensive than human-performed labor? Do most people who labor for wages just go unemployed, and then bankrupt, and then die?
The question shows a total disconnect from reality. People who are unemployed with no money today don't die. Even street people don't die. If AGI labor is cheaper and as effective as human labor, prices will drop to the point where the necessities cost very little. People will be able to support themselves working part-time jobs on whatever hasn't been automated. The tax system will become more redistributive and may…
Small point of contention here, but 100% of people die, and 'street people' exceptionally quickly.
>The tax system will become more redistributive and maybe we'll adopt a negative income tax.
And when the productive economy profits from automation while the government tax revenue decreases from lost income tax, what do you think this arbitrary money printing will do to the USD?
I guess it's not news but it is pretty wild to see the level of millenarianism espoused by all of these guys. The board of OpenAI is supposedly going to "determine the fate of the world", robotics to be "completely solved" by 2020, the goal of OpenAI is to "avoid an AGI dictatorship". Is nobody in these very rich guys' spheres pushing back on their thought process? So far we are multiple years in with much investment…
>and no obvious large-scale product-market fit I'm afraid you are in as much an echo chamber as anyone. 200 million+ weekly active users is large scale pmf
To say they don’t have PMF is nuts.