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Elon Musk wanted an OpenAI for-profit

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Re: Elon Musk wanted an OpenAI for-profit

#201

Post by 9dev »

Dig1t wrote: post #188
lsy wrote: post #58

I guess it's not news but it is pretty wild to see the level of millenarianism espoused by all of these guys. The board of OpenAI is supposedly going to "determine the fate of the world", robotics to be "completely solved" by 2020, the goal of OpenAI is to "avoid an AGI dictatorship". Is nobody in these very rich guys' spheres pushing back on their thought process? So far we are multiple years in with much investment…

I'm going to favorite this thread and come back with a comment in 10 years. I think it will be fun to revisit this conversation. If you really don't think that this line of research and development is leading to AGI then I think you are being hopelessly myopic. >robotics to be "completely solved" by 2020 There are some incredible advances happening _right now_ in robotics largely due to advances in AI. Obviously 2020…

Being an optimist makes you sound naive and a dreamer. There is no scientific agreement that LLMs are going to lead to AGI in the slightest—we cannot even define what consciousness is, so even if the technology would lead to actual intelligence, we lack the tools to prove that.

In terms of robotics, the progress sure is neat, but for the foreseeable time, a human bricklayer will outcompete any robot; if not on the performance dimension, then on cost or flexibility. We’re just not there yet, not by a long stretch. And that won’t change just by deceiving yourself.

Re: Elon Musk wanted an OpenAI for-profit

#202

Post by pj_mukh »

jkaptur wrote: post #193
ben_w wrote: post #128

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Is nobody in these very rich guys' spheres pushing back on their thought process? Yes, frequently and loudly. When Altman was collecting the award at Cambridge the other year, protesters dropped in on the after-award public talk/Q&A session, and he actively empathised with the protestors . > So far we are multiple years in with much investment and little return, and no obvious large-scale product-market fit, much l…

Can you expand on your spreadsheet analogy? I think Joel Spolsky explained the main Office moat well here: https://www.joelonsoftware.com/2008/02/19/why-are-the-micros... > ... it might take you weeks to change your page layout algorithm to accommodate it. If you don’t, customers will open their Word files in your clone and all the pages will be messed up. Basically, people who use Office have extremely specific expe…

"Basically, people who use Office have extremely specific expectations."

Interesting point, but to OP's point- This wasn't true when Office was first introduced and Office still created a domineering market share. In fact, I'd argue these moat-by-idiosyncracy features are a result of that market share. There is nothing stopping OpenAI from developing their own over time.

Re: Elon Musk wanted an OpenAI for-profit

#204

Post by ActorNightly »

angoragoats wrote: post #145
catigula wrote: post #88

Earlier quoted context omitted.

[flagged]

Just wanted to point out for the record that the person you're replying to said "inane," not "insane." Might not have changed your reply all that much though. IMO SpaceX is not an inane idea, though it's arguably insane from the perspective of the era when it was founded (2002-ish), but it definitely seems to have succeeded. Tesla might be in the same bucket. But everything else he's been involved with has either bee…

Space X succeded because they basically played Elon. There are enough smart people there to realize that they needed to have Elon handlers to prevent him from tanking progress.

Re: Elon Musk wanted an OpenAI for-profit

#205

Post by Terretta »

jasonjmcghee wrote: post #114
Flomolok wrote: post #92

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I tried Claude. If hardware continues it's evolution of speed in the next 10 years I can have Claude but local + running constantly and yeah that would change certain things fundamentaly

Try llama 3.3 70B. On groq or something. Runs on a 64GB macbook (4bit quantized, which seems to not impact quality much). Things have come a long way. Compare to llama 2 70b. It's wild

Llama 3.3 70B 8-bit MLX runs on Macbook 128GB at 7+ tokens per second while running a full suite of other tools, even at the 130k tokens size, and behaves with surprising coherence. Reminded me of this time last year, first trying Mixtral 8x22 — which still offers a distinctive je ne sais quoi!

Re: Elon Musk wanted an OpenAI for-profit

#206

Post by sigh_again »

rvz wrote: post #54
codemac wrote: post #41

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> biggest GPU compute cluster in the world right now This is wildly untrue, and most in industry know that. Unfortunately you won't have a source just like I won't, but just wanted to voice that you're way off here.

It is true. [0] [0] https://nvidianews.nvidia.com/news/spectrum-x-ethernet-netwo...

Even just Meta dwarfs Twitter's cluster, with an estimated 350k H100s by now.

Re: Elon Musk wanted an OpenAI for-profit

#207

Post by ldbooth »

arthurcolle wrote: post #144
pinewurst wrote: post #91

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Nobody seems to remember how the Segway was going to change our world, backed by many of the VC power figures at the time + Steve Jobs.

It reappeared as e-bikes and e-scooters - Lime, Bird, etc.

Reappeared as Electric unicycles, which look hilarious, dangerous, and like a lot of fun.

Re: Elon Musk wanted an OpenAI for-profit

#208

Post by slibhb »

kelseyfrog wrote: post #148
slibhb wrote: post #131

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The question shows a total disconnect from reality. People who are unemployed with no money today don't die. Even street people don't die. If AGI labor is cheaper and as effective as human labor, prices will drop to the point where the necessities cost very little. People will be able to support themselves working part-time jobs on whatever hasn't been automated. The tax system will become more redistributive and may…

Until now, I didn't think that poverty impacting mortality was a controversial statement. Poverty is the fourth greatest cause of US deaths[1]. Why would I hire a part time worker when I could hire an AI for cheaper? When I said categorically, I meant it. 1. https://medicalxpress.com/news/2023-04-poverty-fourth-greate...

Quite a goal post move from "just go unemployed, and then bankrupt, and then die" to "poverty impacts health"

Re: Elon Musk wanted an OpenAI for-profit

#209

Post by andy_ppp »

lsy wrote: post #58

I guess it's not news but it is pretty wild to see the level of millenarianism espoused by all of these guys. The board of OpenAI is supposedly going to "determine the fate of the world", robotics to be "completely solved" by 2020, the goal of OpenAI is to "avoid an AGI dictatorship". Is nobody in these very rich guys' spheres pushing back on their thought process? So far we are multiple years in with much investment…

Echo chambers are very effective at drowning out dissenting voices.

Re: Elon Musk wanted an OpenAI for-profit

#210

Post by verdverm »

rvz wrote: post #54
codemac wrote: post #41

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> biggest GPU compute cluster in the world right now This is wildly untrue, and most in industry know that. Unfortunately you won't have a source just like I won't, but just wanted to voice that you're way off here.

It is true. [0] [0] https://nvidianews.nvidia.com/news/spectrum-x-ethernet-netwo...

Really? Meta looks to be running larger clusters of Nvidia GPUs already

https://engineering.fb.com/2024/03/12/data-center-engineerin...

This doesn't account for inhouse silicon like Google where the comparison becomes less direct (different devices, multiple subgroups like DeepMind)

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