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Syrian government falls in end to 50-year rule of Assad family

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Re: Syrian government falls in end to 50-year rule of Assad family

#171

Post by Roark66 »

ggm wrote: post #6

Much though I want to view this as good news I keep finding myself steelmanning that it's actually bad news * destabilising a region already in flames * replacing a secular evil government by.. jihadists in a loose coalition. WCGW? * Russia used port and airfields to maintain a presence in the Med and for nefarious purposes in Africa. What do they do now, to replace them because I doubt "nothing" is the answer. * doe…

It is a sign that propaganda is getting to you if you find yourself seriously considering their talking points. Is it better if a million people die "in the name of stability" quietly being tortured to death in jails behind closed doors over a span of a decade all while further tens of millions live in misery or half that number die in a let's say 3 year war, but we see it all on TV and there is real chance of freedom and democracy thereafter? Also, it is a huge win for all the depots's propaganda efforts that today in many western countries people have been convinced "democracy doesn't work" because there are issues in their countries. If "it doesn't work" it's not that much different from a dictator, right? And if that is true, why are we helping in foreign wars that prevent the spread of the autocracy (Ukraine now, possibly Taiwan tomorrow). If democracy is a lie, there is no point to risk our wellbeing for Ukraine. Wrong. There is no more important cause in the world than stopping depots. Yes, democracy is not ideal, but it is as if comparing being angry you got a different topping on your pizza order vs starving to death. That is literally the difference. So my blood boils when I hear people online talk about "stability" (and by extension) "why are we spending money on Ukraine when the infrastructure is falling apart here". Because Ukraine is about the survival of our way of life, it is order of magnitude more important than local issues. Take an example from history.

When general Patton won over Germans in WW2 he wanted to continue to overthrow USSR and free countries like Poland and the rest Soviets took over when they colluded with Nazis to split Europe by half. But he was told no, Poland was sold to Stalin for "a pack of fa.s" so to speak alongside the rest of Central Europe. USSR had no nuclear weapon at the time and was a country in ruin. But with the coerced resourcefulness of all the countries like Poland, Belarus, Ukraine, Czech and so on (all modern manufacturing was based in "Soviet republics" with few notable exceptions, rocketry and aviation - Ukraine, computing/electronics Poland and Belarus, advanced machinery - East Germany and so on, later Soviet planners started moving people around to "closed cities" and other special places within Russia, but that's where most of them came from). As a result USSR developed nuclear weapons in record time and was a match for the free world militarily for a long time which few times almost ended our civilisation. If Paton was allowed to continue back then? None of it would've happened. We still live the bad consequences of this decision today.

Re: Syrian government falls in end to 50-year rule of Assad family

#172

Post by lossolo »

throwup238 wrote: post #21
ggm wrote: post #6

Much though I want to view this as good news I keep finding myself steelmanning that it's actually bad news * destabilising a region already in flames * replacing a secular evil government by.. jihadists in a loose coalition. WCGW? * Russia used port and airfields to maintain a presence in the Med and for nefarious purposes in Africa. What do they do now, to replace them because I doubt "nothing" is the answer. * doe…

Assad wasn’t really a stabilizing force holding back worse players, he was a desperate despot just barely holding on to power thanks to a proxy war. Now the rest of the parties have a real chance to establishing a governing coalition. Syria has always been relatively secular and the rhetoric coming from the rebel side is in marked contrast to the usual pattern in the region. The most extremist group involved HTS has…

It's naive to think that peace and stability will suddenly prevail in Syria. The situation will likely follow the Libya model: total chaos, worse than when Gaddafi ruled. HTS are wolves in sheep's clothing, and they wear this disguise only to convince the world that there is no need to form another anti-terrorist coalition. They learned lessons from the collapse of ISIS. All the organizations that once had a common enemy in Assad will now seek to seize power and begin fighting one another.

Re: Syrian government falls in end to 50-year rule of Assad family

#173

Post by aaa_aaa »

lukan wrote: post #47
bbor wrote: post #28

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Any regime change that involves freeing many thousands of women and children from prisons notorious for torture and mass-executions seems like a decent one! The future is uncertain, but it's not like "everyone chills out and gets into their hobbies" was an option -- it's gotta be one of the most war-ravaged places to exist in human history.

Have you heard of a thing called, Islamic State? They had a thing for creative murder. Aside from the usual behadings, they came up with things like pushing homosexuals from buildings in the public and alike. They are also now free again.

How is this an answer to the op's statement?. Assad was a war criminal just like his father. Remember the Hama 1982. Son followed dad by killing thousands, torturing and displaced millions. West will support and try a rosy picture of so called secular totalitarians as long as it fits to their agenda.

Re: Syrian government falls in end to 50-year rule of Assad family

#174

Post by rwyinuse »

cm2187 wrote: post #152
ggm wrote: post #6

Much though I want to view this as good news I keep finding myself steelmanning that it's actually bad news * destabilising a region already in flames * replacing a secular evil government by.. jihadists in a loose coalition. WCGW? * Russia used port and airfields to maintain a presence in the Med and for nefarious purposes in Africa. What do they do now, to replace them because I doubt "nothing" is the answer. * doe…

> replacing a secular evil government by.. jihadists in a loose coalition. WCGW? that's what strikes me the most. All the newspapers have rebranded "ISIS" "the rebels". The headline would be otherwise "ISIS milicia takes over Syria" and somehow that's good news. I don't know who coordonates the rebranding, but clearly there is coordination, almost every newspaper in every country I checked followed it. It's a spectac…

[flagged]

Re: Syrian government falls in end to 50-year rule of Assad family

#175

Post by TheAlchemist »

wiseowise wrote: post #134
fardo wrote: post #119

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It shouldn’t be surprising that a country with a war economy has a higher first derivative at producing material, the question of import is 1. What is the difference between absolute quantities comparing against all relevant players, 2. How long would it take to bridge the gap at current production rates, and 3. Can that rate of production be sustained long enough for it to alter any fundamentals? The point to rebut…

All of this is irrelevant if Ukraine crumbles first.

Same goes for Russia, and is all seems pretty relevant.

The article seem to indicate that it's much more sustainable for the West than for Russia.

Re: Syrian government falls in end to 50-year rule of Assad family

#176

Post by guerrilla »

MoreMoore wrote: post #155
guerrilla wrote: post #148

Earlier quoted context omitted.

That could only be strange for him if he doesn't understand the structure of the war or he hasn't been following current events. Assad was only able to take back Syria with air support from Russia, ground support from Hezbollah and re-enforcement by Iran and other Iranian aligned groups in Syria. Russia is busy and drained of resources because of its misadventure in Ukraine, Hezbollah is reeling from it's shocking lo…

> That could only be strange for him if he doesn't understand the structure of the war or he hasn't been following current events. Maybe he doesn't. There's nothing wrong with that. It feels surreal to me and like it came out of nowhere. I'm also sort of frustrated that none of the coverage or comments I see go into how this happened or what lead to it. Nobody is trying to figure out or explain what's actually going…

Am I nobody to you? ;)

Well, what I mean is it sounds like he's trying to insinuate something. Maybe he's just coming from your position, but in the position that he's in, I think he has far more responsibility than that and shouldn't be commenting on things he hasn't spent five minutes researching. While the timing is extremely surprising, all of the factors involved were covered non-stop in Western media for the last year or so. This is by no means a Black Swan event.

edit: It sounds like to wanted to know more. Check out r/syriancivilwar.

Re: Syrian government falls in end to 50-year rule of Assad family

#177

Post by [deleted] »

throwup238 wrote: post #21
ggm wrote: post #6

Much though I want to view this as good news I keep finding myself steelmanning that it's actually bad news * destabilising a region already in flames * replacing a secular evil government by.. jihadists in a loose coalition. WCGW? * Russia used port and airfields to maintain a presence in the Med and for nefarious purposes in Africa. What do they do now, to replace them because I doubt "nothing" is the answer. * doe…

Assad wasn’t really a stabilizing force holding back worse players, he was a desperate despot just barely holding on to power thanks to a proxy war. Now the rest of the parties have a real chance to establishing a governing coalition. Syria has always been relatively secular and the rhetoric coming from the rebel side is in marked contrast to the usual pattern in the region. The most extremist group involved HTS has…

[deleted]

Re: Syrian government falls in end to 50-year rule of Assad family

#178

Post by j_maffe »

lukan wrote: post #124
j_maffe wrote: post #112

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The majority of them (at the Saydenia) are political imprisoned citizens.

Well, technical IS supporters (who did not participated in killings themself) are political imprisoned citizens as well. The point is, that no matter what they did, they are all free now.

What are you trying to state? There's a small number of citizen IS supporters and they're now free, along with all others who showed opposition to the regime. Ok. So what? Please don't use a general understanding of the patterns in the region to extrapolate wild takes when you don't know the specifics of each country and their people. Syrians are not Afghans are not Libyans are not whatever, as much as the west would like to portray them.

Re: Syrian government falls in end to 50-year rule of Assad family

#179

Post by zdragnar »

m4rtink wrote: post #141
Caius-Cosades wrote: post #135

Earlier quoted context omitted.

>Almost seven million Syrian refugees might have the chance to return home and rebuild now. That’s great news. Just because they might have chance to return home and rebuild doesn't mean that they will. Somalis arrived in the 90's, and they never returned back there except for vacations.

Um, did Somalia actually get much better since then ?

What indication is there that the forces opposed to Assad will make syria better? Everything I've seen points to Libya all over again.

There's not likely to be much to go back to for most of the people who've left.

Re: Syrian government falls in end to 50-year rule of Assad family

#180

Post by theowss »

bbor wrote: post #28
throwup238 wrote: post #21

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Assad wasn’t really a stabilizing force holding back worse players, he was a desperate despot just barely holding on to power thanks to a proxy war. Now the rest of the parties have a real chance to establishing a governing coalition. Syria has always been relatively secular and the rhetoric coming from the rebel side is in marked contrast to the usual pattern in the region. The most extremist group involved HTS has…

Any regime change that involves freeing many thousands of women and children from prisons notorious for torture and mass-executions seems like a decent one! The future is uncertain, but it's not like "everyone chills out and gets into their hobbies" was an option -- it's gotta be one of the most war-ravaged places to exist in human history.

[flagged]
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