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OpenAI seeks to unlock investment by ditching 'AGI' clause with Microsoft

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Re: OpenAI seeks to unlock investment by ditching 'AGI' clause with Microsoft

#71

Post by bloomingkales »

tredre3 wrote: post #63
skepticATX wrote: post #37

Earlier quoted context omitted.

What frustrates me the most about OpenAI is that as recently as this summer they were talking non-stop about how gigantic $100 billion models are all you need for AGI and that it’s just a matter of time until we reach this scale. And if you didn’t see this you’re a simpleton who doesn’t understand how exponential curves work. And then all of the sudden o1 comes out and the narrative from them has shifted entirely. “O…

> how gigantic $100 billion models are all you need for AGI and that it’s just a matter of time until we reach this scale. And if you didn’t see this you’re a simpleton who doesn’t understand how exponential curves work. OpenAI made no such claim. LLM stans on the internet definitely made such claim, that the Stargate project would be AGI and whatnot. But, like crypto bros, GPT hyperfans are just constantly deluded/l…

America gave a trillion dollars out so a lot of people can have 1500 dollars. We have enough money, and we are all not going to live forever. I don’t know what the hold up is.

Re: OpenAI seeks to unlock investment by ditching 'AGI' clause with Microsoft

#72

Post by talldayo »

TeMPOraL wrote: post #64
talldayo wrote: post #36

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Because "educating you better than most things" and "unavoidably generating bullshit" are not mutually exclusive. It's entirely possible that AI is better than human conversation on the spectrum of "adhering perfectly to truth" but it's far-and-away less credible than an encyclopedia or even a peer-reviewed paper. Publishers know they cannot publish false information without spoiling their reputation. ChatGPT lies li…

> Publishers know they cannot publish false information without spoiling their reputation. How did that saying go? You sweet summer child... Reputation doesn't matter. It hasn't mattered for a while. There's too much confusion, you can't get no relief, and there's definitely not enough time in a day to care. Most non-fiction publishing either is, or is funded by, advertising industry. I.e. pathological liars. You bet…

> ChatGPT gets confused and fabricates stuff as much as a person speaking whatever comes to their mind.

Which is useless for the same reason you wouldn't "learn" from a friend that says "I just watched a pig fly!"

> But at the very least, it's not lying to you intentionally.

It's in fact worse that way. If someone lies with intent then they can at least admit it when I challenge their rhetoric. If ChatGPT can't lie intentionally, how is it supposed to know when it's deliberately telling the truth?

Re: OpenAI seeks to unlock investment by ditching 'AGI' clause with Microsoft

#73

Post by joshdavham »

tiahura wrote: post #38
joshdavham wrote: post #31

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Why are people so intent on calling bullshit on AI? I hate to be an armchair psychologist, but I think it’s insecurity.

I think to most people, AGI means KITT or at least Data. AI via word probability matrices is super cool and well worth $20/mo, but it’s not AGI.

I've heard variants of this such as linear algebra isn't AGI and I'm always left thinking 'why not?'

When I think of the human brain, I don't feel that electric zaps propagating through pink jello is any more sophisticated.

Re: OpenAI seeks to unlock investment by ditching 'AGI' clause with Microsoft

#74

Post by DennisP »

blueprint wrote: post #35
ToucanLoucan wrote: post #12

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> He started the company - I’m no Elon fan myself, but that’s the case. Point out what he did that couldn't be done by Bill Gates, Larry Ellison, or Mark Zuckerburg, or in fact that was done by Jeff Bezos with his own company. And I don't mean some ephemeral "well he wanted to!" yeah big fucking deal. I want to convert a DeLorean to an EV powertrain to commute to work. I want to have a garage big enough for 5 cars an…

Or maybe he didn't even want those things, but just said them, to secure fame, power, and access to things like secrets. He played us like a fiddle. Remember Mars as a backup plan? The reason why we thought SpaceX was a humanitarian and scientific effort that we could rally behind? Yeah that was bullshit. We just played to your wish to be able to trust someone and to be led to safety so we could gather talent and fun…

I'm no fan of Musk's political activities either but SpaceX is still working on going to Mars. Starship is the key ingredient for that and they have 25 launches approved for next year.

Re: OpenAI seeks to unlock investment by ditching 'AGI' clause with Microsoft

#75

Post by tim333 »

lolinder wrote: post #50
rgbrenner wrote: post #16

GPT is insufficient for AGI. It might be part of the solution one day, but it's fundamentally incapable of bridging the gap by itself. Despite what Altman/OpenAI says in public, I think he knows this too... That's why they dissolved the Superalignment safety team; and dropping the AGI clause just confirms that. As time goes on, the "AGI is coming" hype machine gets harder to sustain... and their work/company will beg…

Yep. The current wave of "AI" startups are going to totally burn through the terms "AI" and "AGI", with one of two possible outcomes: * We enter another "AI Winter" of sorts. People will continue to work on LLMs and other deep learning applications because they're legitimately useful in moderation, but they'll distance themselves from the label "AI" or "AGI" because it will start sounding like "I work on blockchain"…

I don't really see that myself. The exponential growth in computing will continue and while AGI is not very defined, people mostly think of it as human like or better intelligence, and it'll probably happen regardless of the startups. Though maybe spread over a period of time, for different abilities.

Re: OpenAI seeks to unlock investment by ditching 'AGI' clause with Microsoft

#76

Post by tim333 »

joshdavham wrote: post #73
tiahura wrote: post #38

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I think to most people, AGI means KITT or at least Data. AI via word probability matrices is super cool and well worth $20/mo, but it’s not AGI.

I've heard variants of this such as linear algebra isn't AGI and I'm always left thinking 'why not?' When I think of the human brain, I don't feel that electric zaps propagating through pink jello is any more sophisticated.

"Word probability matrices" is definitely lacking something. A lot of human thinking is more along the lines of shape rotating and sounds and smells and other stuff.

Re: OpenAI seeks to unlock investment by ditching 'AGI' clause with Microsoft

#77

Post by CityOfThrowaway »

aleph_minus_one wrote: post #58
CityOfThrowaway wrote: post #23

OpenAI really does seem to embody the idea that all contracts are renegotiable if you're Machiavellian enough.

> OpenAI really does seem to embody the idea that all contracts are renegotiable Why aren't they renegotiable? Of course you can attempt to renegotiate basically every contract; the question is whether this will be successful or whether this is a good idea. There is no need to appeal to Machiavellianism.

Of course everything is renegotiable. But after reneging on every serious promise you've ever made, I do think it's worthwhile pointing out that this organization is shamelessly Machiavellian. They have mistreated all of their constituencies pretty rapidly!

Re: OpenAI seeks to unlock investment by ditching 'AGI' clause with Microsoft

#78

Post by TheNewsIsHere »

talldayo wrote: post #61
r3trohack3r wrote: post #54

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I remember many instances in childhood where I began to realize authority figures, parents/teachers/etc., that I had been trusting to teach me the ways of life weren’t all knowing. Moments of “lies” (using your term, really just being incorrect) where the cracks began to show. I treat ChatGPT like a 90th percentile educator across many problem domains. Is it going to be wrong? Yes. Is to going to be very wrong? Yes.…

> Just because my 8th grade algebra teacher wasn’t as accurate as an encyclopedia or a published textbook didn’t prevent them from filling the role I rely on ChatGPT to fill now. Sure - but I also cross-referenced my teacher when I was in math class. You know your teacher is wrong because you're also following the steps and showing your work. When your results digress, you cross-reference the steps and determine wher…

My view is that widespread access to and use of generalized LLMs as trusted tools for learning is problematic partly because of the serious lack of critical thinking and basic education in the US. Which itself has nothing to do with LLMs right now, but is certainly a big part of why we’re in the current situation we are in. gestures around wildly

LLMs aren’t going to do much to fix that in the short term given the slop in, slop out problems.

It’s just another race to the bottom.

Re: OpenAI seeks to unlock investment by ditching 'AGI' clause with Microsoft

#79

Post by rlupi »

lolinder wrote: post #50
rgbrenner wrote: post #16

GPT is insufficient for AGI. It might be part of the solution one day, but it's fundamentally incapable of bridging the gap by itself. Despite what Altman/OpenAI says in public, I think he knows this too... That's why they dissolved the Superalignment safety team; and dropping the AGI clause just confirms that. As time goes on, the "AGI is coming" hype machine gets harder to sustain... and their work/company will beg…

Yep. The current wave of "AI" startups are going to totally burn through the terms "AI" and "AGI", with one of two possible outcomes: * We enter another "AI Winter" of sorts. People will continue to work on LLMs and other deep learning applications because they're legitimately useful in moderation, but they'll distance themselves from the label "AI" or "AGI" because it will start sounding like "I work on blockchain"…

What you describe are two different speeds at which AI/AGI goes through Gartner's hype cycle.

An interesting question is: why do we need hype cycles? Both in general, and what's peculiar about AI and AGI... most ideas don't go through multiple hype cycles. Wasn't one "AI Winter" enough?

Tech hype is a always a kind of hyper-stition, it aims to be a self-fulfilling prophecy. So, tech hype is directed mostly toward those that can decide to invest in tech development to make it fulfill its bright future vision, achieve its destiny.

But with AI/AGI, I think it's different. The impact of tech hype on the now is as important as the bright future that this hype foretell.

AGI tech hype sells future marvels of productivity to the employers and executives, it creates fear for employment in employees and thus it is a form of social control and curbs HR costs and demands in the present moment; and it also has socio-political function as a way for USA, and to a lesser extend to the West at large, to reassert its manifest destiny as the center of world, both in tech prowess but also in terms of cultural hegemony.

The enormous AI datacenter build up in USA creates both first-mover advantages and a first-mover disadvantages. We'll see how it plays out in the next few years.

Re: OpenAI seeks to unlock investment by ditching 'AGI' clause with Microsoft

#80

Post by luro »

ToucanLoucan wrote: post #26
CamperBob2 wrote: post #15

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Point out what he did that couldn't be done by Bill Gates, Larry Ellison, or Mark Zuckerburg, or in fact that was done by Jeff Bezos with his own company. "If you were going to start Facebook, you'd have started Facebook." - apocryphally credited to Zuckerberg. You do know that Bezos started his rocket company before SpaceX, right? If he could beat SpaceX, why hasn't he? As for sex bots, that'll happen soon enough, b…

> "If you were going to start Facebook, you'd have started Facebook." - apocryphally credited to Zuckerberg. No, I wouldn't, because I have a soul and I don't want to light the mental health of the entire world on fire no matter how much money it makes me. > You do know that Bezos started his rocket company before SpaceX, right? If he could beat SpaceX, why hasn't he? I don't know what "beat" means in this context no…

There is an art to check writing, I’ll remind you.
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