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The electric shock behind Europe's stuttering EV future

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Re: The electric shock behind Europe's stuttering EV future

#11

Post by Animats »

amelius wrote: post #6
klooney wrote: post #2

> The skills built up by European carmakers over decades are simply not directly transferrable. Germany does have a giant, excellent chemistry industry. > China's interest in batteries is not a recent trend. It has been investing in their production for many, many years. It has been attempting to dominate not just the production of cells but also of the cathodes and anodes that go inside them - not to mention the che…

The world knows how to make good cars now. The EU has to move on to the next problem if it wants to stay ahead.

> The world knows how to make good cars now.

Companies can forget how.

Stellantis (which owns Chrysler, Jeep, Dodge, Fiat, and some other forgettable car brands) forgot how. The CEO was fired on December 1st, 2024. His strategy had been to crank prices way up, add on post-sale service charges, and get the biggest bonus in automotive executive pay history (not counting Musk's current litigated bonus.)

Sales went down. Way down. Chrysler now makes only minivans. Overpriced Jeeps are piling up in dealer lots. The "mild hybrid" power train, with 21 miles of electric mileage, is a dud. The brand image is in the tank. Nobody wears a Stellantis T-shirt.

The US has 3 million unsold cars sitting on dealer lots. Some have been there for over a year. How many will still start?

Re: The electric shock behind Europe's stuttering EV future

#13

Post by marcosdumay »

ghaff wrote: post #7
klooney wrote: post #2

> The skills built up by European carmakers over decades are simply not directly transferrable. Germany does have a giant, excellent chemistry industry. > China's interest in batteries is not a recent trend. It has been investing in their production for many, many years. It has been attempting to dominate not just the production of cells but also of the cathodes and anodes that go inside them - not to mention the che…

>Consistent, long term industrial policy is very effective. Which worked so well for Japan that you had Nobel economic laureates promoting it. I'm being a bit sarcastic of course but MITA was seen as such the future in Japan--until it wasn't.

Industrial policy will bring you up to a point, and apparently, no further.

Anyway, it was wildly successful in Japan, Germany, and the US. Up until the time it stopped working. It has been arguably less successful in China, but still good enough to create massive change.

Re: The electric shock behind Europe's stuttering EV future

#14

Post by alephnerd »

oldpersonintx wrote: post #3

this seems mostly about VW, a company that is both a huge presence in the EU economy and probably irrevocably f---ed VW is slowly vanishing from US markets (EV or ICE) and tried to enter the Chinese market only to get the crap kicked out of it I'd mention Stellantis which is also mostly an EU company now, but they are so screwed at this point it isn't even sporting

> tried to enter the Chinese market only to get the crap kicked out of it

That's a massive rewriting of history.

VW was one of the earliest foreign automotive manufacturers to enter the Chinese market.

In the 1990s and 2000s, the Volkswagen Jetta was China's Model T. And until 2023, VW was the top selling car brand in China.

And that was the crux of the issue - VW grew complacent by leveraging "Made in Germany" branding to sell in China, while not investing in innovation.

This meant that when Chinese challenger brands like BYD could outcompete VW in China, VW as a whole suffered.

Already VW has lost significant market share in the US after the emissions scandal and is functionally non-existent in Japan, Korea, Brazil, and India.

China was their last growth market within which they held dominance, and they lost it.

This is a common story for "Made in Germany" - German manufacturers strategically chose China in the 2000s for greenfield FDI, and unlike most other European countries, Germany's economy is extremely coupled with China (France and the UK were more diversified with France leveraging LatAm and India and the UK leveraging NA and India).

Re: The electric shock behind Europe's stuttering EV future

#15

Post by BarbaPeru »

Animats wrote: post #11
amelius wrote: post #6

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The world knows how to make good cars now. The EU has to move on to the next problem if it wants to stay ahead.

> The world knows how to make good cars now. Companies can forget how. Stellantis (which owns Chrysler, Jeep, Dodge, Fiat, and some other forgettable car brands) forgot how. The CEO was fired on December 1st, 2024. His strategy had been to crank prices way up, add on post-sale service charges, and get the biggest bonus in automotive executive pay history (not counting Musk's current litigated bonus.) Sales went down.…

Forgettable as Citroen and Peugeot, for example?

Re: The electric shock behind Europe's stuttering EV future

#16

Post by formerly_proven »

MoreMoore wrote: post #5
klooney wrote: post #2

> The skills built up by European carmakers over decades are simply not directly transferrable. Germany does have a giant, excellent chemistry industry. > China's interest in batteries is not a recent trend. It has been investing in their production for many, many years. It has been attempting to dominate not just the production of cells but also of the cathodes and anodes that go inside them - not to mention the che…

Germany is IBM. Existing industries are too valuable and influential, and shifting something as entrenched as German auto industries is an expensive, difficult endeavour that isn't immediately as profitable as the existing business. At least maybe we'll get to stick around as business consultants and selling mainframes to a handful of companies convinced by "nobody was ever fired for buying German".

People like to say the US is a car-dependent country (because you can't go anywhere without a car).

However, germany is the most car-dependent country (because it can't go anywhere without making cars).

Re: The electric shock behind Europe's stuttering EV future

#17

Post by ghaff »

marcosdumay wrote: post #13
ghaff wrote: post #7

Earlier quoted context omitted.

>Consistent, long term industrial policy is very effective. Which worked so well for Japan that you had Nobel economic laureates promoting it. I'm being a bit sarcastic of course but MITA was seen as such the future in Japan--until it wasn't.

Industrial policy will bring you up to a point, and apparently, no further. Anyway, it was wildly successful in Japan, Germany, and the US. Up until the time it stopped working. It has been arguably less successful in China, but still good enough to create massive change.

I don't really disagree. You need, sorry, effective capitalism and a legal structure underneath the policy but that doesn't replace entrepreneurship and broader cultural norms.

Re: The electric shock behind Europe's stuttering EV future

#18

Post by jcfrei »

klooney wrote: post #2

> The skills built up by European carmakers over decades are simply not directly transferrable. Germany does have a giant, excellent chemistry industry. > China's interest in batteries is not a recent trend. It has been investing in their production for many, many years. It has been attempting to dominate not just the production of cells but also of the cathodes and anodes that go inside them - not to mention the che…

Yes but the level of investment the Chinese have poured into battery production and EVs in general is also completely unparalleled. Industrial policy is nothing new for US and EU but just not at that level.

To be able to compete with China the West would need to:

- Match generous subsidies to companies, not just through banks but at the government level by building entire towns just for battery production.

- Making large parts of land uninhabitable for the cost-effective extraction of rare earths.

- Suppress wages at factories and engineering bureaus to be able to cost compete in manufacturing.

- Dramatically lower cost of energy production (only doable without renewables in the short term).

I just don't see any Western government having a strong enough mandate for any of the policy changes required to compete with China. The simpler reaction is just imposing tariffs.

Re: The electric shock behind Europe's stuttering EV future

#19

Post by matthewdgreen »

jcfrei wrote: post #18
klooney wrote: post #2

> The skills built up by European carmakers over decades are simply not directly transferrable. Germany does have a giant, excellent chemistry industry. > China's interest in batteries is not a recent trend. It has been investing in their production for many, many years. It has been attempting to dominate not just the production of cells but also of the cathodes and anodes that go inside them - not to mention the che…

Yes but the level of investment the Chinese have poured into battery production and EVs in general is also completely unparalleled. Industrial policy is nothing new for US and EU but just not at that level. To be able to compete with China the West would need to: - Match generous subsidies to companies, not just through banks but at the government level by building entire towns just for battery production. - Making l…

Western nations have absolutely done this in the past. It’s the reason we are generally the richest and most secure nations in the world. The decision not to do this potentially means we forfeit those advantages for the rest of this century.

And China is hugely deploying renewables, which they happen to be able to produce very cheaply due to their industrial policy. The difference is that China is using their fossil fuel resources to make this investment, while the west is using its fossil fuel resources to shove crayons up its nose.

Re: The electric shock behind Europe's stuttering EV future

#20

Post by dzhiurgis »

dyauspitr wrote: post #10
klooney wrote: post #2

> The skills built up by European carmakers over decades are simply not directly transferrable. Germany does have a giant, excellent chemistry industry. > China's interest in batteries is not a recent trend. It has been investing in their production for many, many years. It has been attempting to dominate not just the production of cells but also of the cathodes and anodes that go inside them - not to mention the che…

I get the engine and transmission tech doesn’t translate over but the vast majority of the chassis, transmission and pretty much everything else stays the same in a car. That being said, having driven my EV for a year or so I somewhat find ICE vehicles gross now. All that sputtering, poisons, jerkiness, continuous maintenance, loudness etc. just feels so primitive. The only place it still makes sense is for situation…

It’s like going back to plastic bags, cups and water bottles. It just feels gross to touch and you can feel getting poisoned.
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