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Agreed on the strategy questions. It's interesting to tie back to IBM; my first reaction was that openai has more consumer connectivity than IBM did in the desktop era, but I'm not sure that's true. I guess what is true is that IBM passed over the "IBM Compatible" -> "MS DOS Compatible" business quite quickly in the mid 80s; seemingly overnight we had the death of all minicomputer companies and the rise of PC desktop…
The new pricing tier suggests they're taking the Jobs approach - betting that their technology integration and reliability will justify premium positioning. But they face more intense commoditization pressure than either IBM or Apple did, given the rapid advancement of open-source models. The critical question is timing - if they wait too long to establish their enterprise position, they risk being overtaken by commo…
Grok winning the Federal bid is an interesting possible outcome though. I think that, slightly de-Elon-ed, the messaging that it's been trained to be more politically neutral (I realize that this is a large step from how it's messaged) might be a real factor in the next few years in the US. Should be interesting!
Fudged71 - you want to predict openai value and importance in 2029? We'll still both be on HN I'm sure. I'm going to predict it's a dominant player, and I'll go contra-Gwern, and say that it will still be known as best-in-class product delivered AI, whether or not an Anthropic or other company has best-in-class LLM tech. Basically, I think they'll make it and sustain.